"Senate States: Advantage Obama" (dkos - poblano)

[debatepro]

A very thorough analysis which shows Obama's appeal is higher in critical states with senate races. In other words... and I have said this before - Obama gives us the best chance of having filibuster proof majority in the senate.


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Another set of important states, however, has to do with the locations in which we are liable to have the most competitive Senate races. And these states obey a different set of rules. For one thing, Senate seats are of course allocated two men (or women) per state, regardless of population size. So in the case of the Senate, a lot of little states really do count more than a couple of big states. For another thing, this political cycle will be unique in that we are on offense, and that Senate contests will take place almost entirely on red and purple turf.

These contingencies would seem to favor Obama, with his appeal across a wider range of states, and particularly in red and purple states. And in fact, Obama has done overwhelmingly better than Clinton in places where we can expect to have a competitive Senate race in 2008.

The Cook Political Report currently projects that 12 Senate races will be at least reasonably competitive: 10 in which we're playing offense, and 2 in which we're playing defense. Certainly, some people here would like to add a couple of other states like Idaho to that list, but we'll go with Cook's list for the time being.

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[TexasObserver]

1. Obama will give us super majorities in congress. Hillary will lose our majorities.