Hillary Clinton Is Down But Not Out

[bigtree]

from Alternet: http://www.alternet.org/election08/76571/?page=entire




As Barack Obama wins five weekend contests, Hillary Clinton reorganizes and plans for the Texas, Ohio, and Penn. primaries.

By Steven Rosenfeld
February 11, 2008.

The race to the Democratic nomination has hit a turning point. As Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won five contests this weekend -- Maine, Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands -- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) reshuffled her staff, replacing campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle with longtime aid Maggie Williams.

Obama won Maine's caucus on Sunday 59 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. On Saturday, he won Washington's caucus 68 percent to 31 percent for Clinton. He won the Nebraska caucus 68 percent to 32 percent for Clinton. He won Louisiana's primary 57 percent to 36 percent for Clinton. And he won the Virgin Islands caucus 90 percent to 7 percent for Clinton. All these contests had approximately 455,000 voters participating.

The Obama campaign is on a roll. In contrast, the Clinton campaign is down, but hardly out. According to the Obama campaign, it now leads in delegates, 1,030 to 946 for Clinton. But other sources, such as "Democratic Convention Watch, a website, say Clinton continues to lead with 1,108 delegates, compared to 1,063 for Obama. To win the nomination, 2,025 delegates are needed.

No matter who is winning the delegate count, what is clear is the Democratic presidential race is moving into uncharted territory, with the biggest question being can Clinton emerge weeks from now as the nominee if she wins the three last big states: Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania? Ohio and Texas vote on March 4.

The race to the Democratic nomination was supposed to be over by now. At least that is what Hillary Clinton's campaign assumed going into Super Tuesday. The resignation of her campaign manager is a signal that the campaign's early assumptions did not play out. But now, as Barack Obama begins a month where he is winning and is expected to win most small-state contests, the question is can the Clinton campaign rebuild and recover before those big state votes. In part, that transition is already underway.

Days before Super Tuesday', Clinton retooled her stump speech. This weekend in Virginia, which votes with three other states on Tuesday, she drew on that new pitch speaking passionately about the "genius of our constitution ... that was crafted to expand as our hearts do, allowing each generation to reach a more perfect union." This is a notable softening of her tone and a departure from earlier speeches that often were heavy with policy prescriptions. While Obama's speeches have lacked specifics compared to Clinton, she has struggled to match his inspirational tone. She may have found a balance.

Still, political perceptions can be cruel. There is no doubt it hurts the Clinton campaign to see headlines that Obama swept Saturday's contests in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands and Sunday's caucus in Maine. Those come after other painful news that she personally lent her campaign $5 million, that some staffers were not getting paid and her campaign manager's resignation. The next locales to vote are Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., whose elections are on Tuesday. News organizations such as The New York Times say Obama has an edge in these contests.

Well-connected and perhaps cynical sources in the Clinton camp said these races hardly matter, because she can win the nomination on or after March 4 when the remaining big states vote. The Clinton campaign no doubt takes comfort in the demographics of Ohio and Pennsylvania, both large industrial states, and Texas, with its large Latino population. After all, she won California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, precedents that cannot be ignored.

But 2008 has been a season that has been unkind to predictions . . .


more: http://www.alternet.org/election08/76571/?page=entire

[TwilightGardener]

1. Oh, believe me, I fully expect her to spring back up like at the end

of a horror movie and win in the end. I never for a minute let myself believe Obama is the likely nominee.

[bigtree]

2. that attitude will help you stay focused on winning

best of luck

[H2O Man]

3. It's tied.

It is still very close right now.

[bigtree]

4. I agree

With a great deal of momentum behind Obama. Whether states like Texas and Ohio notice that remains to be seen. But if Clinton edges those races, and then, in Pa., we'll be back at tied, with Clinton showing an edge.

[H2O Man]

9. An insurgent

needs only to stay close.

What will be interesting will be the late spring offensive. It could become quite an interesting struggle going into the convention.

[bigtree]

12. I don't see how they can helpfully take that fight into the convention

with the November election a mere 8 weeks from that date

[H2O Man]

15. I hope they don't.

It is far better that it goes to one candidate or the other. It could become a problem if it becomes a court case, or is decided by super delegates.

[jakem]

5. if she were a man, she would not be considered out...

[intaglio]

16. Please don't leave easy shots like this

"If Hillary Clinton was a man then he would be Republican" sorry - I am evil sometimes

[jakem]

17. ouch.

i was just making fun of her suit! lol...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. True.

But I don't see how she'll pull it own even with Clinton winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, unless Obama commits a major gaffe.

[bigtree]

7. here's a bit of the numbers game

The race in Texas (228 delegates), Ohio (161), Rhode Island (32), and Vermont (23), with a few small delegate count states holding contests in-between.

With Clinton favored to win in Texas and Ohio, we could be almost even again by Pennsylvania (188 delegates. Closed primary) on 4/22.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. They'd have to be pretty big wins.

Obama's up by over sixty delegates, last I heard. And that's before tomorrow when he'll pick up several more, in all probability. Those primaries that Clinton does when are squeakers compared to Obama's margins.

[bigtree]

10. look at the numbers at stake again

it's easy to see where the expected wins by Clinton there could bring us back to a level field, even with Obama getting his share of the delegates at stake.

And, you can see the potential for a momentum surge from Obama, so . . .

[hogwyld]

11. I wouldn't write off Hillary in WI either

Her campaign is flush with cash again, and I can see her flooding the airwaves in WI and stealing a win.

[Iceburg]

13. Rise Hillary Rise....and she will./nt

[hogwyld]

14. I wouldn't write off Hillary in WI either

Her campaign is flush with cash again, and I can see her flooding the airwaves in WI and stealing a win.

[Thrill]

18. The Clinton Political Machine is hard to beat. But don't count Obama out.

He's a fighter

[bigtree]

19. He has growing appeal

and, he's a gentleman.