Just a thought about a third party (under the radar) entering the GE.
I've been listening to Lou Dobbs for over a year now telling folks to register Independent and his smearing of both parties, more smearing of the Dems because of immigration and NAFTA (although NAFTA was pushed by more Republicans than Dems because of corporations). I would not be surprised if Dobbs had something up his sleeve about this. All he needs is a well-heeled McCain hater to come out of the woodwork. Lou would ruin it for McCain while Nader might ruin it for Hillary but not Obama. Nader hates Hillary to the point that if she wins the nomination he will definitely be in. If Obama wins, he might stay out.
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