GALLUP TRACKING POLL: Hillary 46 (-2) , Obama 44 (+1)

[jefferson_dem]

February 11, 2008
Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008Based on daily polling conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008

Based on daily polling conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008USA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are now essentially tied in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Feb. 8-10, with Clinton at 46% and Obama at 44%. Clinton's lead over Obama has eroded over the past five days. The current three-day rolling average is the first to begin to reflect the results of Obama's strong wins in three primary and caucus states Feb. 9, although he was gaining even before those results became known to Democrats.



Clinton and Obama face off again Tuesday in the "Potomac primaries" in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Most observers make Obama the favorite in these three states, suggesting that when we know the results, and they begin to reflect in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking in Wednesday's interviewing, there is the possibility that Obama could gain even more on Clinton.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104281/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

[nomorewhopper]

1. pollster.com national poll

here's a poll from pollster




also take some time to check out the VA and MD polls. I'm wary to post them because honestly I've seen them wrong so many times before.

[anigbrowl]

4. It's hard to fight with the xponential function...

...and Obama has it working for him, big time. Show anybody that pollster graph (which you'll note is an aggregation of multiple polls - the most reliable kind of statistical analysis short of the election result itself), and they're going to bet on the candidate with the big upward sweep.

As for the various political futures trading markets (such as intrade, Rasmussen etc.), the odds for Obama winning (~71%) are now greater than they have ever been for Clinton ~68%). I'm happy since I took what was regarded as a 'sucker bet' on Obama months back and now it's looking pretty rosy. If he does well in Tuesday's competitions (as it seems he will) I believe his momentum will be unstoppable. Markets are often wrong, but they nevertheless have a very good prediction record over the long term. And right now Hillary is tanking. If Obama has a strong win tomorrow, she will be radioactive (I'm not being personal here, but talking market slang). She could turn it around after that, but she would have to absolutely crush him in OH, TX, and PA.

Of course, this is no excuse for complacency. The Obama campaign is succeeding because of the increasing number of people that are getting behind him and pushing.

[godai]

2. It will be interesting to see the trends after tomorrow

Obama may win all 3 primaries tomorrow. This won't change the delegate totals dramatically but, at this point, it's all about momentum. Clinton needs a win tomorrow or else Obama likely will be the leader nationally in many polls.

There was a lot of mention of Clinton's Gallop poll numbers last week but that has evaporated.

I get to vote in VA tomorrow. Happy to know it means something!

[nomorewhopper]

3. obama up something like 15-22 points in both VA and MD in every recent polls

i honestly don't put much cred in those polls

www.pollster.com