Obama Will Win Nomination

[kpete]

Matthew Dowd
A Man in the Middle Looks at the Whole Wide World of People and Politics


Opinion: Obama Will Win Nomination
February 11, 2008 2:30 PM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

To get right to the point, I believe Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination setting the table for a great race for the fall.

Here's why:

In doing the math on delegates, it looks highly likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead when all this is finished by June. Even if Hillary wins some big states along the way, Obama will score enough delegates to keep his count moving.

The super delegates (those 796 party folks who can decide on their own who to vote for and change their mind along the way) will be in an unenviable position when all is said and done. They will be getting unbelievable pressure, especially by the Clintons and their establishment backing, to "pledge" to one or the other.

But here is the deal: how does a party who has protested and screamed and yelled about counting all the votes, that the popular vote matters most, that an election was stolen by the Supreme Court in 2000, go against the votes and participation by voters in the Primary process???

The answer is: I think it's impossible for the Democratic party establishment to go against voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

more at:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/matthewdowd/2008/02/opinion-obama-w.html

[libertee]

1. naw...but it works for breaking up a dreary winter to dream

[cali]

5. you mean you hope not but you're afraid he will

he has at least as good a shot at being the nom as she does- even if you want to live in denial of that fact.

[Divine Discontent]

6. it's nice and hot where I'm at...

and I think they'd be committing political suicide, with no debate, if they (superdelegates) voted for Clinton even if Obama has a lead, that will cause many people to not vote, which will guarantee a heavy loss for HRC. The superdelegates idea is rather stupid if you ask me, it sounds like a GOP contrived idea, not one for our party.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

2. Superdels were created to keep the party from going off the cliff with a loser

but they'll have more to hang their hats on than that

[griffi94]

10. yep

the superdelegates are there to prevent i major trainwreck....like all the repubs in the remainng primaries voting for obama...since the repub nom is a done deal....i'm not sure how many remaing contests are open...i know texas is...hillary should win here easily....unless repubs vote obama because he'll be easier to beat

[anigbrowl]

12. Lemme see...

You're not sure how many contests are open, though you know Texas is...although that information is easily available on wiki or CNN. But somehow you know republican political strategy inside out. OK...

[griffi94]

13. damn you outed me

i've been a member here for 6 years just waitin to jump on obama...i don't need to know what other primaries and caucuses are open....ya see i can only vote in texas....ya know....where i live....i don't get cable....imo it makes ya stupid...like ...well ya see what i mean.....paranoid much

[Alexander]

23. If you get the Internet and no cable, you should be way more informed.

You evidently stumbled upon this web site. You can't take 5 minutes to look at Wikipedia, one of the MSM websites or some other delegate-counting website?

IMO, it makes you look stupid. :eyes:

[Alexander]

22. Yeah, that Walter Mondale was a real winner.

Remind me again how many states he won?

:rofl: :rofl:

[kid a]

3. agree 100%... =)

[beachmom]

4. I just can't listen to Dowd, after he ran Bush's campaign in 2004,

only to going against Bush ONLY WHEN it meant his son was going to go to Iraq.

Too little, too late.

[Scurrilous]

7. K & R

:thumbsup:

[kid a]

8. don't yall go a hatin' on kpete, now!

[Moh96]

Agree 100%

[COFoothills]

9. Dowd's got it exactly right.

Guage the enthusiasm and momentum and do the math. There's almost no way that HRC can overcome the tide that is rising against her.

And he's right that the supers will have no choice but to go along and endorse the will of the people, as it should be.

Barring any major shifts in the momentum, which I just don't see, I can't envsion a scenario where Hillary recovers to win the nomination.

HRC's campaign was built on the inevitability factor to swamp the competition hard and early. Didn't work. They never thought they would ever see February 6 or beyond and they aren't built or prepared for it. Obama's campaign is, and will prevail because of it.

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. Excellent point. n/t

[anamandujano]

27. "inevitability" was a mind set created by the ho media, paychecks

written by their corporate masters.

The huge momentum Obama is riding on is a puny wave of caucus voters, who are not representative of the people. 5K voters or so to win a state does not a movement make.

[tandem5]

11. Exactly, and regardless of what delegates we count we cannot discount the 2.2 million

real people that voted in Florida and Michigan in that popular vote.

You can't have it both ways - buck rules that give super delegates their independent say and promote others that ignore people's votes.

[anamandujano]

28. Thank you!

I fear you may make them too dizzy with a little logic.

[Freetospeak]

14. I agree 100%

[WillyT]

15. BINGO !!! - K & R !!!

:bounce::kick::bounce:

[Mz Pip]

18. HI Willy!

:hi:

It's true. If the superdelegates go against the majority (whoever that might be) it will smell too much like FL 2000. The superdelegates are politicians and most don't want to commit political suicide.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[WillyT]

21. Hey Pip !!!

How ya doin?

:bounce::hi::bounce:

Welcome to the 2008 Primaries, LOL!!!

:hide::banghead::hide:

[CRH]

16. It is possible Hillary will have a higher popular vote, ...

possible, but with the momentum, not likely. If that were to happen and the decision were to be made by the super delegates, it is hard to say how much weight they would give to caucuses.

Caucuses are far from democratic, and in some cases are very confining to people who might want to vote, but can't at a specific time. There are also times when people feel restrained in a caucus.

As well, there are many divergent state rules that govern who can and cannot participant in democratic primaries and caucuses. Independents and cross primary voting repubs that have no intention of voting democratic in the general, have access to influence outcomes.

Another possibility, is information that might surface between now and the convention, could cast a shadow of doubt over one candidate or the other.

All said I think it is too early to make a prediction. I also feel the momentum is so dominant now, unless something strange happens fast, I think the herd instinct will bury Clinton before the primaries have ended.

Keep in mind, the great majority of voters know little of the issues, and are driven more by emotion than reason. Not trying to be mean, but this plays well for Obama with his surging momentum.

[HughMoran]

17. Geez, ya think?

That took a lot of in-depth analysis to figure out :eyes:

[kster]

19. Corporate gives us our four choices and we pick Obama to be their next CEO of America Inc

sorry I meant President of the United States :hide:

[faithfulcitizen]

24. I'll buy that.

:toast:

[lonestarnot]

25. Looking that way yes.

[anamandujano]

26. The simple fact that he is persuing super delegates as we speak

means that he cannot bellyache if and/or when they go against him.

End of story. Full stop.

[ruggerson]

29. Another Republican strategist spinning for Obama