A Little Hypothetical Question for Hillary Clinton

[FlyingSquirrel]

You're waiting for March 4 and hoping for some big victories in Texas and Ohio. I can understand that.

But according to my estimates, (and I've been within 1.6% accuracy so far: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4481426) the absolute BEST you can expect after March 4 is the following:

Clinton 1195, Obama 1293 Pledged delegates.

Even with the CURRENT number of Superdelegates you'd still be trailing him overall (and there's a good chance he'll start picking up more Superdelegates than you in the next 3 weeks). And I'm not seeing any signs that the momentum might be likely to swing your way.

So my question is, IF the above numbers hold true, will you suspend your campaign after March 4? If not, how long will you draw this out? The only big state left will be Pennsylvania on April 22. Even if (and that's a big if) you got 60% of those 158 delegates you'd still only pick up about 60 delegates over Barack, and he's favored to win big enough in the other states to more than offset that.

What I'm saying is, the writing's on the wall here and I'm wondering at what point you're gonna decide that the party is bigger than you. Will you really take this all the way to the Convention and further divide the party by starting a bruising battle over Florida & Michigan's delegates?

[libertee]

1. so if YOUR estimate holds up?? Was that the question?

my estimate is a little different and actually she ends up with more delegates..Interesting..guess we have to wait and see..which means she doesn't have to answer the question.

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. Yes, the question was if my estimate holds up.

Which I recognize it may not.

[paulk]

2. if you are that confident of an Obama win

you wouldn't be calling for Hillary to drop out.

This game is in the 5th inning. Just over half the states have voted.

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. I'm not calling for her to drop out yet.

But at some point we need to rally around a candidate, and I'm wondering whether she will recognize that and at what point. Clearly it's going to continue to be close but at a certain point the law of diminishing returns will kick in and she'll be at the point where she has to win a higher percentage of the remaining delegates than she's been winning to date. IMO she'll reach that point on March 4. And so that's why I'm wondering whether she would have the grace to make a self-sacrificing move for the good of the party, or not.

[truedelphi]

15. Ya know flying squirrel, I don't wanna have a candidate until the convention

The American Public is fickle - and it could well backfire to have someone already annoited and chosen.

I don't think it has done anyone any good having the Super Primaries so early on.

[FlyingSquirrel]

17. You could be right... I've changed my mind already on this one.

So i posted a new thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4543838&mesg_id=4543838

[kennetha]

3. The Clinton line will be

We won in all the big industrial states (and also in Florida and in MIchigan). Wherever people come out to vote in an actual mass plebiscite, rather than a caucus, we win. So we have a much broader mandate from "the people." A significant number of Obama's delegates, they will say to the supers, were won in tiny states, in caucus states, in states where Dems have no chance of winning.

[winga222]

5. Hey, speaking of doing what's best for the party, how about if

Michelle Obama gets with the program and says absolutely that she'd support Clinton in the GE if she gets the nomination? That would show more party loyalty at this point than Clinton dropping out when she still has a decent chance of pulling off the nomination, IMHO.

[emilyg]

8. yep

[chimpymustgo]

6. I am so sick of people trying to stop the process. It was mean and insulting when it

happened to Edwards, and the same holds now.

Why doesn't Obama drop out?

[FlyingSquirrel]

18. You're right, chimpy

I changed my mind already, thanks for your input. Posted a new thread about it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4543838&mesg_id=4543838

[DJ13]

7. "I'm wondering at what point you're gonna decide that the party is bigger than you"

Hillary?

lol, not gonna happen.

Half of her supporters only support her due to her arrogant attitude.

They think it shows "toughness", but to me its always shown a callous disregard for anyone except her and Bill.

She will only quit if it saves her a loss of face, not because she will be doing it to help the Party.

[Bucky]

9. This post is why our Founding Fathers hated squirrels

It's okay to trust democracy and let the people decide. Be patient and have faith. It'll work out no matter who we nominate.

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. No, they hated squirrels because they had more nuts!

lol

Ok well I have already changed my mind based on responses to this thread...

posted a new one.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4543838&mesg_id=4543838

[UALRBSofL]

11. No because after speaking to the FDP today Hillary gets the seated delegates

And if it's long and drawn out we will have to wait and see what happens between florida and DNC. The Hillary camp are in high hopes the florida vote will count in the end.

[Yossariant]

12. Neither will get the 2025 required by the rules. The convention will decide it.

She will not, nor should she, drop out.

"Even with the CURRENT number of Superdelegates you'd still be trailing him overall"

Yeah, by 8.

[BenDavid]

13. Hillary ahead in superdelegates Hillary retains her lead

among suddenly critical Democratic Party insiders. Of the 796 Democrats who are superdelegates, Clinton had 243 and Obama had 156. That edge was responsible for Clinton's overall advantage in the pursuit of delegates to secure the party's nomination for president.

This is why Donna Brazile is threatening to quit the Democratic party,because Hillary is playing by the rules and she's ahead.

Brazile is spitting and stamping her feet, demanding that the rules be changed so her favorite, the new guy, has a better chance to upset his party elders.

[TexasObserver]

14. She's going to try to hang on until Texas and Ohio, but she'll be gone if she loses either of them