Obama will win WI and HI on 2/19. With a sweep today the primary is over.

[Radical Activist]

Hillary can stay in a while if she wants. But a total sweep of the February states after 2/5 means the primary is effectively over after 2/19, assuming Hillary doesn't see the writing on the wall and drop out before then.

Clinton's major donors who gave because they thought she was going to win will stop giving to her and start giving to Obama. Her funding will dry up soon.

Virginia wasn't just a victory for Obama. It was an overwhelming blow that signals to the media and party leaders that Obama will be the winner. Sorry March 4th states, but your primaries aren't going to matter after all. Even if Hillary hasn't dropped out this race will be over after 2/19.

[sandnsea]

1. No, we have to win Ohio, at least

Don't doubt it and we can't quit. We need to be working on Ohio right now. And spanish speaking folks should be calling TX.

[still_one]

5. The MI and FL delegates is also VERY precarious /nt

[earthlover]

24. The hillary contingent would no doubt want to change rules in the middle of the race...

But the problem with seating FL and MI is that if Hillary doesn't have the votes before them, she won't have the votes to seat them! Catch 22

[Arkana]

15. Right. Win one of OH and TX and keep the other within 4-5 points.

[still_one]

2. Are the numbers really there without the March 4th states?

I will take your word on it, but I also believe they are going to try and seat the MI and FL delegates, and I don't know what the implications of that are

[Radical Activist]

7. Its not about delegate count.

Its about who is forced to drop out first. When people see that Obama is going to win then people will start to push for Hillary to drop out and will stop donating to her campaign. Then the public will abandon her too. She has no campaign without corporate donors and party establishment support. She'll have to drop out before the convention.

[goodhue]

8. No, the numbers will not yet be there, but the momentum will be tidal wave

[still_one]

14. I hope you are both right, but I am not taking anything for granted /nt

[Radical Activist]

25. Well, no doubt

you have to keep working the March 4 states just to make sure.

[Frances]

3. I think Obama will be our nominee too.

So, I hope DUers will stop making Hillary the enemy and focus on McCain's weaknesses.

Demoralizing Hillary's supporters now won't help Obama in the fall and that's when the real contest will be.

[NJSecularist]

4. Sorry, don't agree

Ohio will be tough for him to win.

It will be his litmus test, though. It's a state with very little African Americans and Hispanics.

[goclark]

11. Sorta like Iowa?

And that was before he really was proving with lot of success that he is a Man for All Seasons and Hues.

[Radical Activist]

12. Ever been to Cleveland?

Obama is doing very well with white voters too. He has won plenty of states with mostly white voters.

You can't lose 10 states in a row and maintain the kind of momentum it takes to win. The primary is effectively over.

[NJSecularist]

18. What primary has he won that had very little black vote?

Blacks will count for probably 5-8% and Hispanics will count for about 2%.

[Radical Activist]

22. Iowa, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas

to name a few.

[NJSecularist]

29. None of those are primaries

I give Obama all the credit in the world for his caucus organization, but primaries are a different beast, especially when HRC will be fighting for her political life.

[Radical Activist]

32. Now you're grasping at straws. Connecticut. Utah is a primary state, not caucus.

Is it about racial makeup or the method of voting?

Connecticut is mostly white and is a primary. How many mostly white primary states have voted? There are very few available to win if you define it that narrowly.

He also won the Delaware primary. I don't know how diverse that state is.

[NJSecularist]

34. Just saying that Ohio is a toss-up

and even if Obama sweeps February, he will still have a fight on his hands in Ohio.

[Radical Activist]

35. He won't have much of a fight

if Hillary doesn't have the money to run ads or keep on staff in Ohio. And if the public has decided that she's going to lose anyway. People like to vote for a winner.

[earthlover]

28. So are you saying Hillary needs small black vote states to win?

Then how can she win in November?

HUH?

[Diane R]

20. He took every county in Wash St., and we have a very small minority population. He can win anywhere

[goodhue]

6. Yes, I agree

Hillary will desperately try to win Texas and Ohio, but it won't happen.
Superdelegates and money will flow one way--towards Obama.

[RL3AO]

9. I'm not completly convinced on Wisconsin yet

[goodhue]

13. Obama owns the upper midwest, it will be a cake walk for him

Which is why Hillary is in El Paso, not visiting Wisconsin until Saturday in Milwaukee

[earthlover]

31. big mistake by Clinton not going after Wi...

WI is a state that has demographics friendly to Hillary. Her going to Texas shows how desperately she needs Texas. I think this is a mistake on her part, however. A win in WI for her would help her in TX more than her campaigning there. She needs to win sometime....

All these Obama victories are sure to help his votes in OH and TX. Enough perhaps to at least make them close. She is going to need 60%

[Radical Activist]

36. Any reason why?

He has won every state bordering Illinois so far.

[thoughtcrime1984]

37. I see an Obama tidal wave on the 19th

Excitement is everywhere for O up here!

[NightWatcher]

10. momentum will affect later primaries and should swing some superdelegates

the numbers are looking large tonight

[KAZ]

16. Follow the money. Or lack thereof.

If she has it, she continues. If not, graceful exit.

[Radical Activist]

26. Where does she get new money after a big loss tonight

and two more a week from now? You're right and that's why I think its over.

[KAZ]

30. If the exits end up as bad as they sound right now, it's over.

But only due to lack of money. She still could be strong in OH, but that takes $$$. TX is gone to her now, and if her advisers tell her differently, they should be hung.

[jasmine621]

17. Not over until Texas and Ohio and PA are accounted for.

If Hillary loses any one of those she should just withdraw gracefully and campaign her heart out for the Dem party.

[Cha]

19. Please don't

jinx it, RA! :) My son on Kauai cannot wait to vote for Obama. I thought Hawaii's was in March? Is it on Feb 19th?

[bigdarryl]

21. Obama is cutting into Hillary's base women and latinos the olny group she currently...

has is 65 and older voters

[OzarkDem]

23. Sorry to disappoint you

but there are bigger states still ahead.

[Radical Activist]

27. She won't have the money or momentum to win bigger states.

[BringBigDogBack]

33. That is correct.

[goodhue]

38. !

[goodhue]

39. .