I can't read the math any other way: Obama won the nomination, and Clinton lost.

[awaysidetraveler]

Only the superdelegates can save her now, and that won't be enough it seems.

This election will put him up an additional 40 delegates over her supposed superdelegate lead, which was around a hundred for quite some time. These superdelegates will recognize the shifting base, and they'll divide in a more electorally responsible way. Otherwise, they'll lose their own electoral base.

This will mean, in short, that HRC would have to win 100 delegates over Obama in Texas and Ohio. Her support base is fair in those places, but it's not nearly strong enough to overcome a hundred delegate lead.

Later, we'll look back at this as the pivotal moment of Obama's political triumph.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

1. Now comes MI, FL, and superdelegates.

Hold on to your hats.

[totodeinhere]

2. She will have to beat him 2-1 in both Texas and Ohio.

And that's not gonna happen.

[awaysidetraveler]

3. Yep, we've won the big one here! This is the moment!

And I'm all fired up.

[jackson_dem]

4. Here is the math. Obama 1,170 Clinton 11,68

How is she done? Obama still needs almost 1,000 more delegates to win.

[awaysidetraveler]

5. Jackson Dem, How are you adding these numbers? I'm counting elected delegates.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914

There's a link to the elected delegates counted thus far. If you look up NYTimes, you find they don't count caucuses as votes. If you look up CNN, you get weird superdelegate votes that start off at over a hundred plus in favor of HRC.

[jackson_dem]

6. CNN

I guess they count supers. Chuck Todd says Obama is now leading by 100 in pledged delegates, not counting Maryland for which we don't have results yet. It isn't over by any means. Let's wait until March 4.

[KAZ]

9. JD, it's not the delegates. It's the $$ and the MO.

This is a party function, after all.

[jackson_dem]

12. The mo can change, though

Wisconsin is the only significant contest coming up before March 4. If she wins she is back in business. She can't pass Obama based on March 4 but there are plenty of primaries in the rest of March, April, and even May (including at least the big state of North Carolina).

[awaysidetraveler]

20. Wisconsin looks like it's going to Obama, though.

That is according to the latest polls.

[jackson_dem]

24. It will

But there isn't anything major for 2 weeks after that. She can rebound on March 4. If she loses Ohio and Texas then she is done and probably should drop out.

[KAZ]

23. WI is THE most important thing right now. So why is she in

El Paso? Bad advisers. She deserved better.

[awaysidetraveler]

10. We can wait, but this is still the big moment. HRC can't beat 100 pledged delegates in Texas and OH

She has neither the popular appeal to rally those states or the polls necessary to manage them.

We've won!

I thought you were with Obama... what's up with the change in avatar?

[jackson_dem]

13. I was an Edwards supporter

Then I remained undecided until today when I decided to support Hillary.

[awaysidetraveler]

18. Why the shift? If you don't mind my asking. n/t

[jackson_dem]

25. I think she is more likely to beat McCain

Here is my thread on my decision http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4562453&mesg_id=4562453

[jackson_dem]

14. I was an Edwards supporter

Then I was undecided after he dropped out and now support Hill, although I will support Obama if he wins.

[DB1]

15. I think that was the count w/supers this morning. Things have changed.

[cbayer]

7. Didn't you read the OP title? He "can't read the math any other way". nt.

[Renew Deal]

17. That doesn't include all the delegates from VA.

And Maryland and DC.

[awaysidetraveler]

22. Right, and that means CNN's next projections will show about a 40 delegate Obama win

And that's despite the phony superdelegate stuff.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. When you study the calendar, it's not as clear as that

59 delegates in Puerto Rico, and she is likely to get all of them (It's complicated, but PR is de facto winner-take-all, though proportional on paper.)

Pennsylvania is strong for Hillary.

Once February is over, there are state's she has fine chances in besides the big three... RI and KY come to mind.

Obama has a distinct advantage, but it's surprising how favorable the calendar gets. (And PR is worth two states... a 59 delegates wing is large. Did Barack pick up net 59 in Illinois? It's that big.

None of this factors momentum issues. If Hillary collapses she collapses.

But as things lie, this is a competitive race.

Also, as an odd wrinkle... if super delegates happen to follow their constituents, only democratic states and congressional districts have elected official super delegates. So bluer states do count for more than red states.

[RL3AO]

11. Puerto Rico deciding the nominee would be kind of funny.

[awaysidetraveler]

16. Perhaps, but the latest indicates that WI is also going Obama.

That will make a 10-0 lead in states following Super Tuesday, and it will add still more delegates to the Obama mix.

That should cancel out any difference in votes that a theoretical Puerto Rico win would manage for Clinton.

And that's assuming your Puerto Rico win, which I've seen no information about. Do you have a link to add credibility to your claim?

[nomorewhopper]

19. the money is going to dry up....

the road is a hard one, almost impossibly so.

[Renew Deal]

21. Has she paid back the loan yet?

Have to wonder.

[OzarkDem]

26. Keep dreaming

and do the math again.

There's no way the rest of the states are going to sit this one out. Obama is not popular in the remaining large states.

Texas, Ohio and PA want Clinton and they're not going to let a bunch of smaller states, many of which won't even vote Dem in the GE, control the outcome of this primary.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

27. No, it's not over yet! Don't become complacent! We have to work our butts off.

I intend to work here in Texas to get people to vote Obama, which actually shouldnt be too hard since everyone I know is already planning on it!

[Zavulon]

28. Don't jinx it for me, please.

I want Obama to win so bad I'm about to explode, and I'm not nearly as confident as you are in his victory.