Superdelegate Dilemma: Hillary wins OH, TX, PA by 10 pts or more and still is behind in delegates

[Herman Munster]

Do they give it to Hillary who would have then won all the big important democratic states or Obama who got big delegate margins in low turnout red caucus states that are unrepresentative of anything we see in the general election?

[Zynx]

1. If Hillary wins all of those states by ten points or more I think this will be a dilema as it

will be the closest nomination fight in recent memory.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I just don't think Clinton will win all three states by 10+ points.

I think she splits Texas and Ohio, which will end her campaign.

[Pirate Smile]

3. Do you guys have any idea how insulting your attitude about 3/4 of the states and voters in the

Country is?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. 3/4 of the voters live in small states? Do tell...

[Pirate Smile]

14. I don't know exactly. Maybe 2/3 would be better. How many people do live in Texas, Ohio,

New York and California as compared to everywhere else? Those are the only states that count to the Clinton campaign. That is a wonderful message to the rest of the country. As someone who has only lived in states that don't count - Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Colorado - I just love this talking point from the Clinton campaign.

[BeatleBoot]

4. The answer is pretty obvious.

[Omega3]

5. you said it right there, his wins are mostly in

RED STATES, many of whom have open primaries. He is a paper tiger.

[BeatleBoot]

7. Rove and friends licking their chops.

[Renew Deal]

10. Yes, the red states of Maryland, Connecticut, Washington, Delaware, Maine, Illinois, Minnesota

And sometimes Iowa, Missouri, and Colorado.

[Windy]

18. Precisely! You better check your map again. He's winning everywhere!

YOu know instead of spinning here amoung political junkies who know better, you may want to get out there and work for your candidate. She needs all the help she can muster!

[PassingFair]

6. Hillary will not win Ohio.

I don't know about TX or PA, but
I don't think she'll take OHIO.

And yes, I CAN see into the future.

[Barack_America]

17. Not if Independents can participate.

Which apparently they can. I agree that Obama will take Ohio.

Hillary really needed PA to come before Ohio and Texas. PA is a truly closed primary and could've saved her. But it doesn't, and the results in Ohio, particularly, will loom heavily over PA.

[KittyWampus]

9. Superdelegates will support Obama who will have a majority of pledged delegates

Hillary supporters are deluded from listening to campaign spin and Mediawhore lies-

the superdelegates will be Obama's because he will have the majority of states and delegates.

[joshcryer]

11. Hillary would be done Herman, it's just a matter of simple math.

Doesn't matter, she'd be done. MI and FL would not come into play. Obama would win the rest of the states hands down.

[Renew Deal]

12. The idea that supers will go against the elected delegates is a fantasy.

The idea that this will drag on much longer is too.

[goodhue]

13. But she wont

[Barack_America]

15. Methinks you don't want to get in the habit of calling Swing States "Unimportant". n/t

[Ellipsis]

16. Complete Superdelegate endorsement and uncommitted lists

Livy posted this in ER ...pretty cool. All the names of the Superdelegates and how they stand today.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x496761

[Meldread]

19. "...Obama who got big delegate margins in low turnout red caucus states..."

I believe that, as of his most recent victories, Obama has taken the lead and is now winning the popular vote. So to recap:

Obama is leading in the overall delegate count (even if you include supers, Florida and Michigan).
Obama has won more states.
Obama is winning the popular vote.

He's the frontrunner now by any stretch of the imagination, and Hillary as you pointed out has a steep hill to climb. Her own campaign has acknowledged that she cannot afford to lose OH, TX or PA, and by looking at the math - as you pointed out - she needs to win by 56% or more. Her campaign is acknowledging that they will be behind in pledged delegates by the time the convention rolls around.

This nomination will be decided by Super Delegates because there are not enough pledged delegates to push someone over the number needed. However, I cannot imagine a situation in which Hillary obtains the number of supers needed to win the nomination, especially if she is losing the overall delegate count (including supers), lost more states and is failing to win the popular vote.