Conclusion: If neither candidate drops out, we are DEADLOCKED

[JCMach1]

With Obama doing a bit better %wise in the recent contents, if you take a close look at the map, the only way anyone gets to the magic number is if their opposite withdraws from the race.

Chances of that happening: roughly 0% (barring a major Obama flogging of Hill in TX and OH)

So, how do we minimize the damage caused by a deadlock?

For sure, something must be decided about FL and MI now. That could make a huge difference. Suppose both states do a caucus in April and either Obama, or Hillary has clear momentum going into this. It could be decisive and perhaps prevent a deadlock.

I can see where the train is heading, but I don't see an easy solution. :(

[AX10]

1. Draft Gore!

[joshcryer]

3. YES.

YES YES YES.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Are you up for a brokered convention?

It could happen...

[ingac70]

4. ?

I read somewhere that Hillary needs to win at least 56% of the delegates to win from this point on...Fl and MI made their decisions and decided they didn't want to be part of the process.

I don't see the "deadlock".

[JCMach1]

8. That percentage would be for the 'Win' and even that's wonky

because of the Superdelegates...

[ingac70]

13. The SD's will go with whoever has the plurality. n/t

[JCMach1]

27. Very big assumption if the plurality is quite small

Please note this comment cuts either way.

[griffi94]

14. i kind of hope

that at this point she stays in and does what she's already been accused of...which is screwing obama....what happens if this goes to the convention and the repubs get an extra 2 months or so to dump on st. barrack....after the most excellent treatment that hillary got...she could just fuck obama over....but i bet instead that she'll concede as soon as it's a numerical impossibility for her to win

[99th_Monkey]

5. Isn't Edwards sitting in the cat-bird seat?

What happens to Edwards' delegates anyway? I'm ashamed to admit I do not know the answer.

Do you know? Can Edwards throw his delegates to Obama (or Hillary)? or are they in limbo or what?

I argue in another recent post that Edwards should endorse Obama, given Obama's strong showing since
John dropped out, because I think that is in large part due to Edwards voters flocking to Obama.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4568345&mesg_id=4568345

...but it didn't occur to me when posting that that Edwards actually HAD won more than just 1-2 delegates,
but I'm not sure how many. Do you know what happens to these? Does Edwards still have ability to direct
them towards Obama or Clinton?

[WCGreen]

9. He's only got about 30 delegates...

[Yossariant]

11. Edwards lost some delegates when he suspended his campaign but he still controls 26.

[99th_Monkey]

19. Well, that's not many, but given how tight it may become down to the wire

maybe he could decide it, no?

Hell, that's about as many as my whole state (Oregon) has I think.

[Yossariant]

26. It looks like Oregon has 52 and 13 Supers. I don't know if it's the best, but I use thise site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#_note-TotalPledgedD

[99th_Monkey]

29. Thanks for the link

DID you per chance live in LA during the 1968 Primaries? ... a campaign organizer for
Bobby Kennedy's campaign, and had a married couple named John and Pammela from Oregon
come stay with you to work during last days of CA Primary?

Just curious.

[defendandprotect]

28. I think it was a great mistake for Edwards to leave --- he's sorely missed ---

[joshcryer]

6. MI and FL don't make up enough delegates to push either over the edge if it stays "tied" like this.

As far as I can tell anyway.

[TheWraith]

7. The DNC will pay a call on Hillary long before that happens. NT

[joshcryer]

10. She'll drop out March 5th.

[TheWraith]

17. That's my thinking too.

They'll wait for Ohio and Texas, if they can afford to, but unless they make won HUGE there, it's over.

[joshcryer]

23. Exactly, she needs an OH and TX miracle that just isn't happening.

[Spider Jerusalem]

12. Not true

Superdelegates aren't committed to any particular candidate, and have given indications that they'll support the candidate who has the highest delegate total going into the convention. If the pledged delegate count splits almost evenly, with a margin of <=100, there are still enough superdelegates to secure 2025 total for either Clinton or Obama, without Florida and Michigan.

[JCMach1]

18. Deadlocked excluding the supers!!!

Supers are value-added delegates and they tend to go that way because of bandwagon effect...

However, what if the wagon is canceled?

[Hoof Hearted]

15. I believe and hope that Hillary will pull away with the victory in the end, but

With such a surgically tight margin, neither should leave the race.

Viva Democrats!

[AX10]

16. We will see.

[Hoof Hearted]

20. have some faith AX10! How many times have they counted her out?

It's all good! It's going to be fine!

[AX10]

21. I hear you!

[defendandprotect]

22. Better for us to prolong this --- better we have mistakes before a nomination ---

and better that the public have more time to check the merchanise . . .

It's also better for selecting VP's . .

You're looking for a 'solution' which isn't necessary ---

[anamandujano]

25. Agree wholeheartedly.

People calling for Hillary to stand down, worried about the party, worried about democracy, is ridiculous.

We are going through a very stable system, with plenty to go. It'll be hurting no one to let it all play out.

I also will say that with the press totally against Hillary, totally for Obama, and the Repuke crossover effect to get rid of our strongest, Hillary, she is doing amazing.

[madfloridian]

24. Go to my journal and read my primary posts.

It won't be a train wreck, and it will be fairly done. FL and MI will not count toward the nominee

[Jamastiene]

30. Wow, you mean you think I might actually get to vote in the

primaries after all? I was thinking it would be decided before May. I never really get to do anything but cast an "after the fact" vote normally. I might actually make a difference this time. Interesting.