By James Carville and Mark J. Penn
Sunday, July 2, 2006; Page B07
<...>
We've heard all this "Hillary can't win stuff" before. In fact, the quotes above aren't from recent weeks but from six years ago, when many pundits -- and Democrats -- said there was no way that Hillary could get elected to the Senate. She won by 12 percentage points.
We don't know if Hillary is going to run for president, but as advisers who have worked on the only two successful Democratic presidential campaigns in the past couple of decades, we know that if she does run, she can win that race, too.
Why? First, because strength matters. Our problems as a party are less ideological than anatomical: Our candidates have been made to look like they have no backbone. But the latest Post-ABC News poll shows that 68 percent of Americans describe Hillary Clinton as a strong leader. That comes after years of her being in the national crossfire. People know that Hillary has strong convictions, even if they don't always agree with her. They also know that she's tough enough to handle the viciousness of a national campaign and the challenges of the presidency itself.
One thing we know about Clinton campaigns: Nobody gets Swift Boated.
The woman who gave the War Room its name knows how tough politics at the presidential level can be. Adversaries spent $60 million against her in 2000, and she endured press scrutiny that would have wilted most candidates. She gave as good as she got, and she triumphed.
For those who think that the politics of personal destruction might be rekindled against Hillary or her husband, we can only remind people how consistently that approach has backfired in the past. Bill Clinton would certainly be a huge asset if Hillary decided to run.In fact, Hillary is the only nationally known Democrat (other than her husband) who has weathered the Republican assaults and emerged with a favorable rating above 50 percent (54 percent positive in the latest Post-ABC poll).
Yes, she has a 42 percent negative rating, as do other nationally known Democrats. All the nationally un known Democrats would likely wind up with high negative ratings, too, once they'd been through the Republican attack machine.
The difference with Hillary is the intensity of her support.
Pundits and fundraisers and activists may be unsure of whether Hillary can get elected president, but Democratic voters, particularly Democratic women and even independent women, are thrilled with the idea.
The X factor for 2008 -- and we do mean X -- is the power of women in the electorate. Fifty-four percent of voters are female. George Bush increased his vote with only two groups between 2000 and 2004: women and Hispanics. Bush got 49 percent of white female voters in 2000 and 55 percent in 2004. Of his 3.5-percentage-point margin over John Kerry, Bush's increase with women accounted for 2.5 percentage points. The rest came from a nine-point increase among Hispanic voters: from 35 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2004. We believe that Hillary is uniquely capable of getting those swing voters back to the Democratic column.
Hillary's candidacy has the potential to reshape the electoral map for Democrats. Others argue they can add to John Kerry's 20 states and 252 electoral votes by adding Southern states, or Western or Midwestern, depending on their background. Hillary has the potential to mobilize people in every region of the country.
Certainly she could win the states John Kerry did. But with the pathbreaking possibility of this country's first female president, we could see an explosion of women voting -- and voting Democratic. States that were close in the past, from Arkansas to Colorado to Florida to Ohio, could well move to the Democratic column. It takes only one more state to win.
Finally, for those who believe that Hillary's electoral chances are tied to ideology, not leadership qualities, we believe that she is squarely in the mainstream of America. Some people say she is too liberal, some that she is too conservative. We think her 35 years of advocacy for children and families and her tenacious work in the Senate to help ensure our security after Sept. 11 and to help middle-class families will serve her well. We think she represents the kind of change the country is yearning for: a smart, strong leader. She would take the country in a fundamentally different direction: closing deficits, not widening them; expanding health care coverage, not shrinking it. Fighting terrorism without isolating us from the rest of the world.
We don't know whether Hillary will run. But we do know that if she runs, she can win.
James Carville, a Democratic political consultant and commentator, was chief strategist in Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Mark J. Penn was a key strategist in Clinton's 1996 bid for re-election and in Hillary Clinton's 2000 Senate campaign.
moreThat was followed by more spin:
Campaign Memo
Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
People are always asking, can Hillary Clinton win the presidency?
Of course she can. In many of the polls out today, she is already winning.
She has national ratings that are higher than the winning presidential candidates of the last two decades had on Election Day and beats or statistically ties the leading Republican presidential candidates in most recent polls. Today's ABC/Washington Post poll shows Hillary Clinton leading John McCain by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent), and she is the only Democrat who leads both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Yesterday's Newsweek poll shows her competitive with McCain and Giuliani, while the last Newsweek poll had Hillary leading McCain by as much as 7 points.
James Carville and I
wrote a piece in 2006 for the Washington Post about how and why Hillary Clinton can win. Every one of the arguments we cited there are even more true today. Hillary Clinton has surged in the polls since the election this November. And women constitute a huge "X factor" in this upcoming election. More than 54 percent of the general election voters will be women, and many -- particularly those in the younger generation -- believe it is about time this country had its first woman president. And they believe Hillary is the right choice.
Even before announcing her presidential campaign, Hillary has already proved wrong all the pundits who say that people already know her and that voters won't change their minds. In the last year, the percentage of people who have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton in the CBS poll rose 34 percent (from 32 to 43, the highest of any Democratic contender). In today's ABC/Washington Post poll, she has the highest favorable rating of any Democrat tested (54 percent). Hardcore Republicans don't like Hillary for the simple reason that they know she can win, and if she does, she will change the policies of their hero, George W. Bush. She has a strong appeal among both Democrats and independents, the two groups it takes to win.
Hillary Clinton is leading in the Democratic primary ballot among every key audience – men, women, Democrat-leaning independents, mainline Democrats, liberal Democrats, moderate Democrats, blacks and whites. For example, Hillary has the support of 60 percent of African-Americans (compared with 20 percent for her closest competitor, Barack Obama) and 49 percent of women (compared with 18 percent for the second-place contender).
Of course, new polls are coming out every day showing one candidate up or another down, and up against these polls from national news sources, there are plenty of other polls out there with less positive numbers -- like a Diageo poll or a Rasmussen poll -- but the major news organization polls, taken before anyone announced, all showed her moving up in favorability and support, moving up in ways many pundits said was simply not possible.
Some of the commentators look at the ratings of people who have not yet been in the crossfire, and say they might have a better chance. Recent history shows the opposite. The last two Democratic presidential candidates started out with high favorable ratings and ended up on Election Day (and today) far more polarizing and disliked nationally (see the CBS poll below). Hillary is the one potential nominee who has been fully tested, with the Republicans spending nearly $70 million in the last decade to try to defeat her. She is not just strong, but the strongest Democrat in the field. Hillary is the only one able to match or beat the Republicans after years of their partisan attacks on her.
Now that Hillary has closed the gap nationally with the Republicans, the pundits will shift the argument to ask how she will do in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some polls show her down in those states, others, like a recent ARG poll, show her up. The polls in these states are famous for turning around many times as voters get to know the candidates up close. While some candidates have been in Iowa and New Hampshire for years, running as permanent presidential candidates, Hillary has been working hard as a senator for New York. Yesterday she announced that she is forming an exploratory committee and announced that she will start a conversation with the people in those states and across America. To them, she is famous but really unknown -- and she will be meeting the primary voters in the same person-to-person way that she met the voters of New York, where she became the state's highest Democratic vote-getter in their recent primary.
Can Hillary Clinton get the votes of Democrats in the Democratic primaries? Of course she can.
Can Hillary Clinton beat the Republicans and bring the country together for change? Of course she can. Recent polls show this is already happening.
Here are a few key findings based on a snapshot of recent polls. There may be others, but these are from major organizations and all from the last 60 days:
- Hillary was named the "Most Admired Woman" for the fifth year in a row, eleven of the last fourteen years, and has been first or second in that list in every year since 1993.1
- Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat who beats John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll.2
Hillary Clinton 50
John McCain 45
Hillary Clinton 49
Rudy Giuliani 47
- She beats candidates like Mitt Romney with overwhelming margins.3,4
- In the latest CBS News poll, Hillary has the highest favorability of any 2008 contender (Democrat or Republican) with 43 percent, up from 32 percent in September. John Edwards' favorability is 34 percent, Al Gore's is 32 percent, Barack Obama's is 28 percent, John Kerry's is 22 percent, Rudy Giuliani's is 41 percent and John McCain's is 39 percent.5
- Hillary is the candidate Democrats like best, with a favorability rating of 79 percent, compared with 65 percent for John Edwards and 54 percent for Barack Obama.6
- Hillary is the candidate Democrats increasingly believe is their best chance to regain the White House. Sixty percent agree that "if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she'll have as good a chance as any Democratic nominee to be elected President," up from 46 percent in August 2006.7
- Hillary leads the Democratic primary horse race with 41 percent, compared with 17 percent for Barack Obama, 11 percent for John Edwards, 10 percent for Al Gore and 8 percent for John Kerry.2
- Hillary's Democratic primary support is climbing while others are stalled or falling. Clinton leads with 37 percent (up from 28 percent in October) while Obama is at 15 percent (down from 17 percent in October), Edwards is at 9 percent (down from 13 percent in October) and Kerry is at 7 percent (down from 12 percent in October).8
- The latest Gallup poll conducted before her exploratory committee was formed has Clinton ahead of Barack Obama 53/39, and leading the field with 29 percent, with Edwards having announced and showing a 5-point gain (from 8 percent in December to 13 percent in January).9
- She is too new to the primary states for reliable poll numbers, but at least one American Research Group poll shows her ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton leads in 13 of the 17 states where they have conducted polls: California, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont.10
Penn even claimed a lock on Republican women:
by Mark Penn, Chief Strategistin News10/18/2007 4:57 PM
This morning I explained in a breakfast briefing that Hillary has the potential if she is our nominee to win almost a quarter of Republican women in the general election, and that this could well be a last-minute surprise that happens in all of the regions of the country.
I was looking recently at Republican women voters (core Republicans and Republican leaners), and their support for Hillary has doubled in the last few months to 13 percent, from less than 6 percent. Also quite interestingly, "Don't Knows" surged to 11 percent, so a total of 24 percent would either vote for her or consider voting for her. The same thing happened to her favorables with this group -- they also went up. While 75 percent viewed her unfavorably, this was down from 87 percent just a few months ago.
So there is now about a quarter of Republican women open to voting for Hillary, about double from June. Looking at those trends, I believe in the end, if she is our nominee, she will continue to expand her share of Republican women votes, and that there is a growing vote in that group for her. In the overall national polling, she is beating Rudy Giuliani among women by 18 points, so women are strongly coming over to Hillary so far in this campaign.
The
rebuttal from Obama's campaign.
Here is what we know about Penn’s strategy:
The Clintons would lock down the
RW media befriending the likes of
Richard Mellon Scaife.
Scaife also told the magazine: "I don't want people throwing rocks at me in the street. But I believe in open marriage."
Clinton gave Scaife an autographed copy of his book and Scaife said he later sent $100,000 to the Clinton Global Initiative.
Forbes magazine has estimated Scaife's wealth at $1.3 billion.
linkHillary’s buddy at Fox,
Suzanne Estrich, writes for a Sciafe-funded wingnut rag:
Estrich appears frequently on Fox News as a legal and political analyst, giving the liberal perspective. She has also substituted for Alan Colmes on the debate show Hannity & Colmes. Estrich writes regular articles for NewsMax for which she is a pundit.<1> and is also on the Board of Editorial Contributors for USA Today. On January 10, 2008, she joined the Quinn Emanuel Urquhart Oliver & Hedges law firm, a litigation powerhouse based in Los Angeles.
Having befriended the RW media, Penn, with the help of Hillary’s surrogates, decided to rekindle the "
politics of personal destruction."
Their efforts failed to stop Obama from
crossing the 50 yard line on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
Unable to knock Obama off his game, Penn tried to label
Obama the "establishment candidate". No sale, so he decided to
push RW logic.
After a string of losses, Hillary replaced
Patti Solis Doyle who is credited
with helping build Hispanic support for Hillary. Loyalty to Penn trumped loyalty to Hispanic voters, who they once claimed wouldn’t vote for Obama. The move to replace Doyle isn’t sitting well with
Hispanic leaders.
Here’s a glimpse of Penn’s
next move.
Hey, but Hillary is loyal to this guy.
edited to fix line breaks.
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