Hillary up 10 points in TX - IVR Poll 1/30-31

[nomorewhopper]

Clinton 48%
Obama 38%
Undecided 10%

I know its a few weeks old but as far as I know it's the last major poll out there and it shows a 10 point lead for Hillary with only 10% undecided.

Are there any newer polls out there? I assume we're going to start to see some new numbers as Texas prepares for the election.

[Bicoastal]

1. Texas will be close...but CLOSE isn't what Hillary needs right now. nt

[HughMoran]

2. That poll mine as well have been taken during the stone age

It's just too old to have any meaning at this point.

[Avalux]

3. That is an old poll.

I expect it will be very close - Obama may even take Texas.

[hogwyld]

23. I like the big O

but there's no way in hell he can take Texas. His best hope is to keep it somewhat close.

[damntexdem]

32. Hillary needs to win districts big to not just split with Obama.

I don't know that he can "win" the overall popular vote (I hope he can), but he should be able to come out about even in delegates.

[workinclasszero]

49. And Ohio and Pennsylvania...

:party:GOBAMA!!:party:
:applause::applause::applause:

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. that's not good for Hillary

i hadn't seen any texas polls, so I was expecting a 30 point lead that he'd have to cut into.

A 10-pt lead? That might as well be a tie.

[SoFlaJet]

5. she is done Magic rat

and everyone knows it

[RiverStone]

6. The pundits are saying she must win by 60%+ in TX and OH...

....if not, there will be no math that can save her.

[RiverStone]

8. The pundits are saying she must win by at least 60% in TX and OH...

...if not, there is no math that can save her.

[susankh4]

9. Here is what the numbers actually tell us:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/the_democratic_race_moving_for.html

Pundits can spin like the rest of us. Statisticians are a lottle more grounded in reality.

[susankh4]

11. And I'll quote, in case you don't want to read the whole thing:

"In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton's losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week."

[nomorewhopper]

13. interesting read but

i think there's going to be a difference between the 4 day layover between iowa and NH and the 3 week layover, during which obama may rack up 10 decisive victories. it's going to be a long road, but in the end as we have shown all along, VOTERS will make up their own minds, and because of this Hillary has the unique ability to chart her own course.

[HeraldSquare212]

34. But it also says neither is going to have a big edge from here on out.

I understood the numbers to be requiring good-sized wins by Clinton.

[XemaSab]

50. Not to beat a dead horse

but if her "good" states don't include states like Washington, Virginia, Louisiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Maine, or DC, that's a big problem.

I know she prefers big blue states, but dude, there just aren't that many of those. She's running low on states with a lot of Hispanics and states she's resided in too. :P

If we're going to run a national campaign this fall we can't have a candidate who rejects states as being unfavorable. I mean, three months ago who would have guessed that a Black man would win Idaho? :shrug:

[Perky]

29. Is that supposed to be her in the Photo?

Looks like there is some serious retouich going on there.

[nomorewhopper]

31. or maybe a pic of her from a long time ago?

[Alexander]

37. Dictators are known to constantly use pics from when they were younger.

Just saying.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[GumboYaYa]

7. That is definitely not good news for Hillary.

Primary support is very soft with a large number of voters. The 10% will fall drastically based on yesterday's results. No one likes voting for the loser in the primary. Combine that with more money for Barack and time for him to campaign in TX and the gap should close significantly. I thought she had a bigger lead in Texas. Without looking in detail at the internals of the poll, my initial reaction is that Texas will be hard fought and Obama has a shot a winning there.

[nomorewhopper]

10. heres a graph

this graph from pollster takes the averages of all recent polls to suggest a trend. the dots represent the specific polling number (48 vs. 38 for example)

[NMMatt]

45. LOL - that graph is so familiar now

It looks like every other state in this election.

[theboss]

12. A ten point lead?

Christ, that might be gone today.

[WolverineDG]

14. what's the margin of error?

And, that 10% undivided could throw a monkey wrench in those stats for either side.

dg

[nomorewhopper]

15. good question, not sure?

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
IVR Polls 1/30-31/08 534 LV 48 38 10



as far as i can gather its the most recent poll. ivr seems to conduce these polls every few weeks in texas, i get hte numbers from pollster.com who reports the results of all polls, so i don't know the specifics about ivr

[nomorewhopper]

19. Here's the IVR data, direct from their site

snip:

With Edwards and Giuliani dropping out, I decided to poll the race in Texas before Super Tuesday next week. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has gained the most from the narrowing field. While he has stayed in the low to mid teens since summer, conservative Thompson and Giuliani voters have picked Romney over John McCain, raising his support to 30%, a hair ahead of the Arizona Senator's 29%. Mike Huckabee follows with 20%, down for the second poll in a row. Ron Paul has his best showing at 8%, up from 4% last month. Alan Keyes, who has decided to base his campaign in Texas until March, follows with 3%. 10% are undecided.

Looking into the numbers, McCain and Romney have opposite gender gaps, with men choosing Romney by a nine point margin and women choosing McCain by a nine point margin. Huckabee had no gender gap. Huckabee And Romney tied for the lead among voters under 40, followed by Ron Paul with McCain well back. In both the 40-59 and 60+ age groups, McCain led, followed closely by Romney. Huckabee was just below his overall average in these groups, while Paul had very little support.

Voters were asked to rate different issues of importance to the next president. Compared to earlier ratings, it is clear that Romney's new supporters are much more conservative than McCain's. Romney supporters were 30% more likely to give illegal immigration the top rating. Half gave global warming the lowest rating, compared to only 20% for McCain supporters. Ratings for both healthcare and the economy were much lower. Only a quarter of Romney's supporters would support even a gradual reduction in troop levels in Iraq, while this idea had around 40% approval from supporters of McCain and Huckabee, as well as undecided Republicans. In earlier polls, Romney supporters were much closer to the average. In contrast, McCain's supporters were more moderate this time when compared to the last poll. This suggests conservative supporters of former candidates are moving to Romney while the moderates are moving to McCain.

The issue profile of undecided Republicans most closely matches Romney on illegal immigration and the economy, McCain on troop levels and Huckabee on healthcare.

* Romney 30% (11%)
* McCain 29% (24%)
* Huckabee 20% (26%)
* Paul 8% (4%)
* Keyes 3% (0%)
* Undecided 10% (8%)



November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided. Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure. There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

Obama's support among African-Americans actually dipped slightly as the number of undecided women increased. Obama still has a large lead 55-21, with 24% undecided.

Both candidates gained among white voters with Edwards departure. Obama gained eight points while Clinton gained five. I can't distinguish between former Edwards voters and prior movement, but my best guess would be that it was a combination of the two. Undecided was also up two points.

Clinton's support was even between men and women, but Obama had seven points higher support among men. Women were seven points more likely to be undecided.

Clinton supporters gave all issues higher importance ratings than Obama supporters did. Maybe I asked about the wrong issues. There was usually high correlation between the rankings of undecided Democrats and Clinton supporters. The exceptions were global warming and troop levels. Undecided Demoocrats were midway between the candidates on global warming, and closer to Obama on troop levels with more opting for removing troops gradually as opposed to bringing them home quickly, but the differences on troop levels was much smaller than other issues.

* Clinton 48% (46%)
* Obama 38% (28%)
* Gravel 3% (0%)
* Undecided 10% (8%)



1573 past primary voters polled Jan 30-31, 2008
734 Republicans and 534 Democrats considered likely voters
R MoE 3.5% - D MoE 4.3%
This model is consistent with the model I have used on these tracking polls since May. If the Texas primary is meaningful at the presidential level, I will modify the model to reflect the higher expected turnout in future polls.
Last Updated ( Friday, 01 February 2008 )

[WolverineDG]

20. With that information + undecideds,

the 10% lead turns into a dead heat. :wow:

dg

[nomorewhopper]

21. im very interested to see the new polls that come out

that reflect the new sitaution.

clinton has been on the ground there building support. is obama capturing attention like he did in virginia?

[WolverineDG]

22. I would say "reinforcing" not building

Obama is opening offices statewide. Not sure about Senator Clinton. The local media announced that she was visiting here in 2 weeks but no one bothered to tell the county party chair, so once again, his comment was "She is?" :eyes:


dg

[nomorewhopper]

40. anybody know when a new poll is out?

[OzarkDem]

25. 4.2

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. 1/30-1/31?

That was a lifetime ago...

:shrug:

[Thepricebreaker]

17. 10 points on the 31st? That could be gone... n/t

[thevoiceofreason]

18. And the Obama camp is hoofing it in Houston

[OzarkDem]

24. Was just getting ready to post that

She will do fine in Texas, a state that isn't afraid to elect women to high public office.

[jakem]

26. Funny, I heard René-Robert Cavelier, Sieur de La Salle was up 80 points

that may be dated though...

:rofl:

[SoCalDem]

27. & G.W.'s polling high too.. He should smile more, though

show some teeth..

[thoughtcrime1984]

28. She is forgoing Wisconsin to be in Texas for 3 weeks

If she can't dominate there, she is just about finished.

[loveangelc]

30. tx republicans are going to cross over and vote for obama.

idk how many but i bet it will happen...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

33. CLOSE! she needs to win big to gain the nomination!

[nomorewhopper]

35. still plenty of time though

[TalkAgain]

36. 10% is not enough, she needs to take TX by 20% or more.....nt

[Tatiana]

38. You all do realize that 42 delegates are going to be allocated by caucus, right?

Obama can and likely will win Texas.

[loveangelc]

41. everyone seems to say that but i dont understand how everyone is so confident.

that said, that is pretty close for it to be so far away from their primary/caucus and before super tuesday...

[TexasObserver]

46. it's 67 delegates selected by the June convention, 126 on primary day

add 35 superdelegates, and the total is 228 for the state

126
+67
+35

228

From the governing materials:

• 126 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 31 state senatorial districts (each senatorial district being assigned 2 to 7 National Convention delegates based on how well each district had supported the Democratic nominee for President in 2000 and Governor in 2002).
• SD 31: 2 delegates
• SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28: 3 delegates each
• SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30: 4 delegates each
• SDs 10, 20, 21, 26: 5 delegates each
• SDs 14, 23: 6 delegates each
• SD 13: 7 delegates
In addition, precinct conventions are to be convened no earlier than 7:15 P.M. local time the day of the presidential primary (the polls will have closed in Texas at 7 P.M.) to begin the process of choosing the delegates to County and Senate District Conventions.

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: Tier 3. State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.

67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.

[loveangelc]

42. rasmusse is suppose to come out with a poll tomorrow or sometime soon...

sometimes his polls suck, however.

[TexasObserver]

43. That poll is over two weeks old, and came before Obama's February successes.

The Texas primary will only decide 126 delegates on March 4th, and the state convention will decide 67 more delegates in June.

The 126 are divided among the 31 State Senatorial districts, and break down according to the following formula:

• 126 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 31 state senatorial districts (each senatorial district being assigned 2 to 7 National Convention delegates based on how well each district had supported the Democratic nominee for President in 2000 and Governor in 2002).
• SD 31: 2 delegates
• SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28: 3 delegates each
• SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30: 4 delegates each
• SDs 10, 20, 21, 26: 5 delegates each
• SDs 14, 23: 6 delegates each
• SD 13: 7 delegates

Because of proportional allocation of delegates based upon Senatorial districts, neither candidate will move far out in front of the other on a 10 point statewide split. So, if one gets 45% and another gets 55% overall in the state, the difference won't be that much in the 126 delegates assigned on election night.

I think Obama will win Texas by 5-15 points. Of the 126 delegates mentioned above, Obama might get 70 and Hillary might get 56.

[NMMatt]

44. That's pretty bad for Clinton...

That was quite a while ago and all the polls have broken in his favor since. She better hope Texas doesn't trend like every other state that has been contested.

[CreekDog]

47. If she just wins big in TX OH and PA she needs about 67% of delegates there

To get that haul of delegates apparently takes a 70% vote for her.

I don't see if happening.

This also assumes she splits all the other contests and has blowouts of the above scale in these three states.

She has to plan on winning this way because the superdelegates are slowly showing themselves to follow the winner of primary/caucus votes rather than past endorsements or even loyalty.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

48. 2 weeks ago is not relevant, especially considering a lot of Obama's supporters don't have

land lines, plus, I only trust one poll, and it's not IVR!

[TexasObserver]

51. all good points and accurate

This primary season in Texas, pollster will miss the boat by not correctly identifying the real likely Dem voters, and that will understate Obama's voters and overstate Hillary's. Most pollsters use a model designed by looking at the last primary, and the last primary in Texas was 2004, when the presidential election was already over. Hispanics made up 24% of the Dem primary voters, 21% were black, and 55% were white/other. Look for the Black % to rise significantly as they GOTV big time.