It is beyond bleak for Clinton to catch up on pledged delegates

[Perky]

Look it really is an issue of mathe and calendar

She needs not victory, but big wins out of Ohio and Texas to overcome the pledged delegate lead Obama has amassed and slingshot her into the lead with PA.

She needs to blow Obama out of the water with 60% plus in both. but given that the momentum is currently in Obams's camp. and the only intervening contests are both favoring him, the strategy insists on finding a way to reverse Obama's momentum by convincing Texans an Ohioans that the history of the past month is to be ignored.

If she fails in doing that and scores a modest win she still will need to net 130 plus delegates to draw even by the time the primaries are over.



Currently Obama is ahead on Pledged Delegates by 125.
assuming a 60/40 split on WI/HI his delegate lead will probably be about 143 or so.


Here ar five scenarios

There are 355 delegates available on March 4 and another 555 after that for a total of 910. She needs to win 527 or the last 910 to pull even. That is 58% of the remaining delegates

If she gets 60% on 3/4 that is a a 213 to 142 split and a net of 71. She still needs to make up 72 more in the remaining contests to break even. That means she needs 56% of the remaining delegates.

If she gets 55% on 3/4 that is 195 to 165 split so a net gain of 30 so she would be 113 behind. That means she would have to get 60% of the remaining pledge delegates

If they break even on the 355 available on March 4th she will need 63% of the remaining delegates.

If Obama wins 55% of the 355 he would increase his delegate lead to nearly 180 and that would mean she would have to take 66% of the remaining delegates.


It is not impossible by any stretch but she has to rely on wins in red states where Obama has faired better and where many DUers poo-poo the authenticity of a victory.

[Perky]

1. That's never happened to me before... 10 recommends an not a single comment

wierd

[mohc]

2. You left them speechless n/t

[HeraldSquare212]

3. Because the math hurt our brains.

[rodeodance]

4. WAITING for the 3 post limit to take effect

[Perky]

6. kinda sux for both of us doesn't it?

[rodeodance]

10. not me--i seldom do more than 3/day. sometimes none.

[Perky]

16. yea you just slam others without any desire for a rationale discussion

[goodgd_yall]

5. We still need to deal with Florida and Michigan

With it being this tight a race, we can't allow the voters of Florida and Michigan to not have a say.

I'm not saying though, that the one with the most pledged delegates should necessarily win the nomination. And it may be the superdelegates should have a say. The Obama people can convince them about meaning of Obama's victories in order to win over superdelegates. Democrats want a Democrat in the White House. If it looks like Obama would get Democrats out to vote who otherwise wouldn't, he would have a strong case.

[XemaSab]

14. I think what she did in Florida was sorta sleazy

but what she did in Michigan was unconscionable. She was the only candidate on the ballot. If that's not okay in Soviet Russia, how is that okay here? :shrug:

[GalleryGod]

19. A Waste of Balloons and Confetti

Pathetic.

[tandem5]

7. that's it burn your post limit early in the day! Its going to be peaceful tonight! nt

[IDemo]

8. Someone is going to have to break down and create a spreadsheet

maybe I'll work on that......then again...:argh:

[Perky]

15. I am such a nerd...I have a huge spreadsheet

State Delgate counts
Apportioned delegate results from multiple sourece
Votinf results
key exit poll data by state

[IDemo]

17. I might want a copy of that if it's Office 2003 compatible

Or you should be able to post it online as well if you have some way of hosting it.

[Perky]

20. send me your email by PM

I need to clean some thing up and yesterday's delegate counts and I can send it tomorrow AM

[GalleryGod]

18. Love Your Work Perky!

Crunch dem numbers !

[Skidmore]

9. Just heard on MSNBC that Hillary has decided that Wisconsin will count after all and

she has decided to fight there too. It was a state she had kind of given up on, I understand. That says something about how far behind she is.

[rodeodance]

12. oh my, msnbc is very behind the stick. Of course they wrote her off and now have to 'excuse'

their meme!!

ha ha [and lots of obamacampers have chirped that silly meme)--ha ha

[thevoiceofreason]

11. And notice that as they tally things up in the Potomac

Barack has a 43 delegate lead there with a few dozen more left to be apportioned (not counting supers). I think this margin is significantly larger than anyone had anticipated. In fact, Barack's margin in the Potomac primaries was equal to her margin (in delegates) in California, and he won the combined popular vote last night alone by 514 thousand (so far), far beyond HRC's 398 thousand vote margin in Cal. Pretty good work for states that qualified for someone's "ignore" list.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. That's not true.

Math doesn't count.

[FogerRox]

21. Heres my Obama number.... 280... his delegate lead when the last primary is over