OMG I'm like TOTALLY gonna waste one of my 3 posts!

[FlyingSquirrel]

This is soooooooooo limiting... Oh, wait. I wasn't spamming GDP. Nevermind.

Here are my latest projections. (Many #'s are based on info from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/)
I'm getting lazy, not gonna show all my work this time around.

Basically taking the average of the most credible superdelegate trackers, Clinton leads Obama 229 to 154 today. But let's give HRC the benefit of the doubt and just use DemConWatch's numbers, which has her leading 232 to 146.

DemConWatch also shows Obama beating Clinton 1112 to 978 in pledged delegates. This time let's give HRC the benefit of the doubt again and use the average of everyone in DCW's "Ultimate Delegate Tracker" - well, everyone but the NYT which for whatever reason just seems way out of step with the rest. That drops it down to Obama 1098, Clinton 974.

Add the two together and you get Obama 1244, Clinton 1206.

Here's where I stop showing my work so much, and just state my predictions.

Feb 19 (after HI, WI) Obama 1294, Clinton 1248 (**BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HRC**)
Mar 4 (after OH, TX, RI, VT) Clinton 1456, Obama 1452 (**BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HRC**)

Tight, huh? But Obama's still up by about 61 Pledged Delegates. This is important because the fence-sitting superdelegates are paying close attention to it.

So now of course everyone's looking at Pennsylvania and its 151 Pledged Delegates. Well there are no recent polls there. HRC obviously must do well. How well? Well.... The largest state left after that is North Carolina, (77 PD's) and a Feb 11 poll has BO leading 50% to 40% there right now. Three other states are still in play for her totalling 104 Pledged delegates - Oregon, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

Ok, let's just put on those rose-colored glasses once more and say Hillary gets 45% in NC, and 60% in OR, KY and PR. 97 to 84 advantage, Clinton in those three states. Without PA, Obama's still up by 48 Pledged Delegates - the remaining 117 PD's are in states where Obama's favored to win 60% at least. That puts Obama back up by 95 Pledged Delegates.

Now let's say Hillary succeeds in getting Florida and Michigan counted. As shown before, this gives her another 50 PD's MAX. Now Obama's up by 45 PD's without Pennsylvania.

So BEST CASE SCENARIO for HRC once again, she's going to need 45 more PD's in Pennsylvania than BO or she'll be behind in Pledged Delegates and can't expect the superdelegates to fall in line.

That means she needs to win PA by 70% on April 22 - and then HOPE that she can get MI and FL counted because if not, she's still behind by 50 Pledged delegates. If by that time Barack has not closed the Superdelegate gap, she's ahead by 40 on total delegates - but again, without MI and FL she stays behind on PD's and the fence-sitting superdelegates most likely go Barack's way.

All this is once again the best-case scenario for HRC. Even the slightest thing doesn't go her way, or BO closes the superdelegate gap some, or any of the numbers are really actually better for Obama, and it's just not gonna happen.

-----

I was right... this was a waste of a post.

:P

[Why Syzygy]

1. Hillary isn't going to carry Texas.

Just my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

[Gore1FL]

2. She might

But I doubt by the distributed 60% she'll need.

[TexasObserver]

12. You are correct! Closer to the Virginia numbers for Obama.

[SoCalDem]

13. Solis-gate

'nuff said

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. I live in TX - and I am worried too - Except that I was trying to get

tickets to the debate in Austin next week and they said that there were 2000 seats at UT and there are at least 50,000 people in Austin trying to get them. Sounds good for O, in Austin, at least. O needs to get to El Paso and San Antonio and spend some quality time.

[Why Syzygy]

26. There aren't any public tickets for the debate.

But there is a watch party > details >
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4575518&mesg_id=4575518

[Rhiannon12866]

20. They were talking about this on MSNBC this morning and the pundits agree with you.

They said that she needs the Hispanic vote, since they came out for her in great numbers in California and Arizona, but don't come out at all in Texas. They said that's the reason that the Democrats in Texas have had such an uphill battle there for the past decade... :-(

[sloppyjoe25s]

22. I hope you are Right - but given her Machine - she should WIN BIG in TX

She should expect a 30-40 point victory in Texas. Bare minimum of 20.

Anything under 20 points victory in Texas probably makes her "not viable" - just by the math.

I hope you are right - but given the demographic, and the power of her Machine in Texas - and LONG LONG work on getting the Latino Vote - including ALOT of local Latino officials who she "got early" with help from Bill - I think she will LIKELY rack up a very very big win in Texas. Like 30-40 points.

Again - I hope not - Obama is getting stronger and stronger with Latinos - but he is the Underdog BIG TIME in Texas.

I'm calling Texas Latinos every night for the Obama campagin since I speak Spanish. The response to him is getting better by the night.

But I fully expect she will have a huge night in Texas.

If Obama can hold her to under 20 points there - he probably has the nomination sewed up.

[sueh]

23. Machine? What Machine?

She's just opening offices in Texas this weekend and asking volunteers from states that have already voted to come work in Texas. She is coming to the Texas party late.

[BringBigDogBack]

3. starting to think...

she might lose Ohio and Texas.

[jackson_dem]

4. If out of 3,200 delegates the difference is 1% the sd's may vote their conscience

It would be stupid to hold them hostage to a small margin Obama got from rethugs and indies (look up the Democratic vote in each state and then reallocate the delegates...). There is also the Edwards factor. He does have 26 delegates. He doesn't directly control them but obviously he would have a lot of influence on them.

[Why Syzygy]

5. Uh. The Indies get to vote in the general.

Why would you disqualify them in the primaries? Is that the law according to Hillary's campaign?
The audacity still astounds me.

[jackson_dem]

7. Why don't we disband the party and become the Joe Lieberman party?

Democrats should pick the Democratic nominee, not rethugs and rethug leaning indies who want to play games with our contests.

[monktonman]

9. what about the dem leaning indies ?

answer me this: does Hill inc. only want to be president of the dems that voteed for her?

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. But don't we get to help pick the Republican nominee in some states?

I've heard people suggesting to others that they should vote for Romney, for instance. Not too many seemed like they really wanted to play that game - have to wonder if there are really that many on the Republican side who would really be doing it either. They might SAY they were gonna to play a little mind game on us, but when it all boils down to it you feel icky going into the other party's house.

[jackson_dem]

6. Don't forget all these states

I just looked at the schedule.

Hawaii: Obama
Wisconsin: will be close

March 4

Ohio: Hill
Texas: Hill
Rhode Island: Hill
Vermont: Hill

Hillary could easily sweep March 4 and no is expecting that. Rhode Island has 21 PD's and Vermont 15. If she sweeps that would totally change the dynamics of the race the rest of the way.

March 8

Wyoming: Obama (12 pd's)

March 11

Mississippi: Obama (33)

April 22

PA and that has been discussed a lot. 158 pd's. It will be key for Hill. If she wins March 4 she may carry the momentum to PA.

May 3

Guam: Hill (4)

May 6

Indiana: 72 Pd's here and no one is talking about it. This is a rethug state and next to Illinois so Obama will probably win it.
North Carolina: Hill could win if Edwards endorses here. 115 pd's

May 13

West Virginia: Hill (28)

May 20

Kentucky: Hill (51)
Oregon: Obama 52

June 3

Montana and South Dakota with 31 combined Pd's. Both are very rethug so Obama should easily win these.

June 7

Puerto Rico with 55

This isn't over by any means, especially if Hillary sweeps or wins three of four on Super Tuesday. We know Obama is weak in progressive states.

[monktonman]

11. Dont be so sure about Vermont

I'm working on that as we type.
Mark my word....Obama WILL take Vermont.

[rox63]

15. I agree - Obama will have big appeal in VT

I know the state pretty well. My Mom's a Vermonter, and I've visited up there (from MA) quite a lot.

[Why Syzygy]

25. Hillary will not carry Texas.

I don't know where you people get the idea that she will.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=180

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. That is somewhat true.

DCW actually shows 14 of Edwards' Iowa delegates as being now "unknown"... not uncommitted. Meaning what? Heck if I know. I'm not sure if Edwards' delegates get to vote for anyone besides him in the first round of voting - anyone know the rule? I would think they would be pledged to him unless nobody got a majority in which case all heck breaks loose anyway.

More importantly though, the scenario in the OP assumes everything goes HRC's way which it may well not. However, I have not completely counted her out. The mathematical possibility still exists and as you said, some of the superdelegates may "vote their conscience" instead of just automatically voting for the PD leader. (However, it doesn't follow that they would all or mostly all vote for Hillary - a vote of conscience COULD lead many still to vote for Barack).

[jackson_dem]

14. If it is only a 20-30 delegate difference I don't think there will be the same pressure to vote

for the national winner. The pressure will be more on voting with your state since that is who the superdelegates answer to.

All this may be moot if Hillary has a bad March 4 but for us junkies it is fun to talk about.

[RunningFromCongress]

24. Hold them hostage to Indies and Republicans that cross the line? You mean the voters needed to win

a GENERAL ELECTION?

[Perry Logan]

16. Did you use your Hillary Nutcracker to crunch those numbers?

[FlyingSquirrel]

17. I'm a squirrel, I have no use for nutcrackers.

:P

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. FYI, I did some number crunching on FL and MI - I came up with

a net delegate gain for HRC of 58 delegates (if they were seated). So O needs to get that much of a buffer. This assumes that all the uncommitted's in MI vote for O.

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. Close to what I got.

But also she would get superdelegates from those states as well so it could be more.