Primaries show a blue-leaning Virginia
The real news of Virginia's primaries is the 2-to-1 vote margin of the Democrats, political analysts say.
By Rob Johnson
Roanoke Times
"The state that long ago was so violently gray, home of the capital of the Confederacy, and Republican red in presidential elections for the past 40 years, may now be heading toward the Democratic blue, led by Barack Obama.
"'The real shock in Virginia is the 2-to-1 turnout in favor of the Democrats,' said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. 'That's embarrassing for Republicans. They can't take Virginia for granted any more.'
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"Although Obama was ahead in the polls going into Tuesday, the margin of his victory, winning 64 percent of the vote, surprised some experts and sets a tone that could be hard to reverse, coming at a critical point in the primaries.
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"The strong youth turnout among Virginia Democrats punctuates a national trend in which the impact of under-30 voters is being heavily felt, according to figures compiled by the nonpartisan Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement. The youth vote in Virginia accounted for 13 percent of all balloting, rivaling or exceeding the under-30 turnout in many key states on Super Tuesday earlier this month. Indeed, Virginia's youth share of the total equaled that demographic's 13 percent showings in Obama's home state of Illinois and New York, Clinton's base.
"The significance of Virginia's youth turnout for Obama is that he won an even heavier majority than his overall margin: 76 percent.
"He's strong among young Democratic voters, who are turning out in heavier numbers this year," said Emily Kirby, a researcher at the College Park, Md.-based CIRCLE. And as the Democratic primary battle moves from Virginia into Texas and Ohio, Obama's wins on Tuesday could be influential with young voters, she said. "He's winning, and that's getting attention," she said.
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"Goldman, reflecting on Tuesday's results, said he 'would be a lot less surprised' if Obama becomes the first black president than when Wilder became the first black Virginia governor. 'Wilder was a surprise in 1990. Obama isn't a surprise anymore. He's winning state after state.'"
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Staff writer Michael Sluss contributed to this report.
http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/150710