Clinton ahead of Obama +21 points in Ohio, +18 points in Pennsylvania

[kwassa]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD8UQ6BSO0

Clinton ahead of Obama in Penn., Ohio

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is leading rival Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to polls released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.

In Ohio, Clinton holds a 21-percentage-point lead over the Illinois senator; Clinton has 55 percent while Obama has 34 percent. The former first lady considers a victory in Ohio's March 4 contest pivotal to saving her candidacy, which has been rocked by a string of Obama victories from coast to coast. The poll shows she has more than a 2-to-1 lead in the state among whites, and almost as big an advantage with women and voters age 45 and over.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of Obama, 52 percent compared with his 36 percent. For this April 22 contest, Clinton has a 20-percentage-point lead among women and an edge with men of half that number. Whites back her by about 2-to-1, while seven in 10 blacks are behind Obama.

Clinton leads among older and younger voters and those without college degrees, while Obama is on top with college graduates in Pennsylvania.

Both polls were conducted by telephone from Feb. 6-12 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The Pennsylvania poll involved interviews with 577 likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters, while the Ohio poll involved interviews with 564 likely Ohio Democratic voters.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Two qualifiers: Feb. 6-12 field dates, and Independents can vote in Ohio.

n/t

[Barack_America]

2. This is the 4th time this poll has been posted.

And the 4th time that I'll point out that the OH poll is bogus considering they didn't sample independents, who can vote in that primary.

[MadBadger]

5. I am confused where you see that they dont poll independents.

[Barack_America]

11. I dug up their methodology.

They sample 560-some odd "Democratic likely voters". Meaning Democrats likely to vote. No mention of Independents in the breakdown.

However, they also conducted a poll about which candidate would beat McCain in the general election and there they made mention of Independents.

I guess they're just not aware of the Ohio primary rules.

Here's the link.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142

[Renew Deal]

14. I wonder if that means people likely to vote Democratic

or Democrats

[Barack_America]

21. Democrats likely to vote.

That's my interpretation.

Like I said, when they did the head-to-head poll they specifically noted sampling Independents. There was no such mention for the Clinton vs. Obama poll. That, and the "Democratic likely voters" language, leads me to believe Independents were NOT sampled for this poll.

I'm pretty sure they left out Independents in their CA polls as well. I have no idea why they're doing this.

[MadBadger]

15. Nah, i think this poll includes Indies and Here's why

The Poll measures LIkely democratic Primary voters. That means anybody likely to vote in the dem primary. Indies are included. The only reason that they mention indies in the GE matchups is because they want to see where they as well as dems and reps would go in that matchup.

I think the date though discredits this poll.

[kwassa]

17. why would the date discredit the poll?

[MadBadger]

18. Half of the poll is taken before Saturday's Priamries, and all of it before Potomac

Doesnt contain Obama's momentum at all.

[kwassa]

20. oh please, as if this primary affects that primary

[MadBadger]

26. You new to this game?

[kwassa]

29. nope. I think momentum is mythical.

Hillary did badly where she didn't campaign, obviously. She expected to lose all the small ones.

[GOTV]

45. This poll is from yesterday - shows a lead of only 14

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

[Barack_America]

19. Likely Democratic voters vs. Democratic Likely voters.

Likely Democratic voters = People likely to vote Democratic
Democratic Likely voters = Democrats likely to vote

This poll sampled "Democratic likely voters"

[MadBadger]

28. Read this, you will understand

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/020408NYNJPRESBP.html

An earlier poll from Quinnipiac says the same exact thing, Democratic Likely voters, but mentions later that Obama has formed a coalition of black and independents in this NJ Poll.

The OH and PA polls include Indies.

[Barack_America]

32. Lol. That's even worse. Independents were not able to vote in the NJ primary.

So it made no sense to sample them.

Hopefully they meant "unaffiliated voters", which is separate from Independents.

Sorry, but I'm still not sold on these Quinnipiac polls.

[MadBadger]

34. But you could declare at the poll and vote in the dem primary

[Barack_America]

39. Not Independents. They're treated as "declared" already.

Only Unaffilliateds could participate. And a lot of the New Jersey polls left them out. And a lot of unaffiliateds thought they were "independents" and didn't know they could vote.

That's what cost Obama NJ, IMO. We canvassed and handed out literature with the correct information, but it was still a mess.

[MadBadger]

3. For the Third Time, These polls are meaningless because of their date

[Alhena]

4. Pelosi considering endorsing Obama ... link

someone can post this as its own thread- my 3 posts are up. The Times Online earlier reported Pelosi was thinking of endorsing Obama, this is confirmation.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02142008/news/nationalnews/bubbas_92_elex_boss_backs_barack_97564.htm

Meanwhile, congressional aides said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is considering endorsing Obama. They say she's weighing whether a public endorsement would harm her ability to function in her job.

Wilhelm and Pelosi are both superdelegates and will vote in the nominating convention in August.

Also yesterday, several Obama supporters, including Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass), were scheduled to meet with Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, to plan their battle to collect more superdelegate votes

[Changenow]

35. I support Obama,

but Pelosi won't help him. He should send her a thank you note and be as quiet about this as possible.

[NJSecularist]

6. Cherish this, Hillary supporters

Her lead will go down into single digits as soon as Obama sets foot in Ohio.

[ZinZen]

16. Exactly, Read VolcanoJen's account

of Obama's ground game. This thing is just heating up.

[RamboLiberal]

33. I think he will close the gap in PA as well - our primary is

still 2+ months out - April 22nd. Once we get past the February contests and Obama can campaign in Ohio, then Pennsylvania I think we'll get a fairer representation of how it will go for him. Heck in my state voters still have time to register or change their party so they can vote Dem.

Obama may or may not win Pennsylvania but I have a feeling Hillary will not have a blow out. I'm looking forward to the campaigns of both candidates in neighboring Ohio then my state of Pennsylvania!

Not every one is the political junkies we are.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

7. Deja IowaVu.

[calmblueocean]

8. Is it fair to say that if Hillary loses Ohio, she should drop out of the race?

It will mean that Obama closed a huge gap, and that her support is very soft. A real achievement if Obama can pull it off.

[lurky]

31. If she loses OH, then PA is in serious doubt.

They are neighbors and have similar demographics/economics. If she loses OH and TX, then I think it's over.

[dkf]

9. Hmm. a Challenge. Yummy.

Go Obama!

[ORDem]

10. I wouldn't be getting too cocky with two weeks to go

and the gap narrowing. And then THIS:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The tide is clearly turning for Obama.

[BeyondGeography]

12. And nowhere to go but down

[Renew Deal]

13. Yup, Hillary just got set up.

:nuke

[PresidentObama]

22. Great logic n/t

[PresidentObama]

23. And not to mention she's ahead in Texas.

And the Obama supporters want to pretend this thing is over.

[Occam Bandage]

24. Great. We eat 20-point leads for breakfast. Let's get crackin'.

[kwassa]

25. You have a lot of eating to do. Lots and lots of eating.

Might be a rather large crow to eat.

[Occam Bandage]

41. We ate a 20-point lead in the 10 days before Super Tuesday. We've got over two weeks to do the same

again, this time in only two states. Can we do it? It'll be difficult, but yes, we can.

[blm]

27. She is ALWAYS FAR AHEAD.....UNTIL Obama comes to town.

I predict Obama wins Ohio.

[AGirl]

30. K and R

[scotch22]

36. These are 2 state Obama has never seemed to get any traction in

[MadBadger]

38. Thats because he hasnt campaigned there yet.

[TexasObserver]

37. Don't trust Quinnipiac polls.

I never trust them.

They create a bogus model, and use it to sample. They oversample the OLD, they oversample those with land lines, and they tweak their "Likely Voter" models in ways that fail to see the likely electorate for the primary.

Bottom line: it's more propaganda intended to help Hillary.

Hillary is likely ahead in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, but not much, and not for good.

[tandem5]

44. you like surveyusa? I like surveyusa.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e76b808&q=45558

[book_worm]

40. Ok, lots of work to do, but hopefully a victory in WI for Obama will help keep momentum going.

[GOTV]

42. Down to 14 point lead

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

[tandem5]

43. I loved it when people started mixing polls in California to show a trend for Obama! nt