So if Hillary doesnt win Ohio by 15 points it will be a lose? - Your getting set up!

[Thepricebreaker]

A few things...

All the polls are showing her ahead 15%+ in Ohio. Lets not forget this is a Semi-Open primary and they didn't sample
any independents which Obama carries very heavily.

Plus if he wins both Primaries on Tuesday (WI and HI) - More momentum.

So now the bar is set so high that if she only beats him by 5-8 points (which is not enough to pull ahead) - it will be a lose.

Oh a serious note, she must win by 60% to tie Obama and 65% to pass him (in ohio, texas and PA), remember its not just a win.. its a BIG win she needs.

[NJSecularist]

1. If she wins Ohio and Texas by any margin

By any definition, it will be a win and she will move on to Pennsylvania.

[Thepricebreaker]

2. If she doesnt get over 60% she can't catch him in delegates.

[NJSecularist]

6. Yes, you are right

But she can drag this to a brokered convention if she wins Ohio and Texas. And then she can hope that the super delegates lead her way.

A win in both states and she will enthusiastically move on to Pennyslvania.

To win the nomination, Obama is going to have to win one of these states.

[DJ13]

9. The Clinton camp isnt concerned with delegates

They just want to stay in the race up to the convention because they believe she can win by having Bill call in favors with enough super delegates to thwart the majority who ended up voting for Obama.

[Nederland]

8. Not true

In order to pick up enough delegates to surpass Obama she needs to win big. If she doesn't win big, she doesn't get enough delegates to win the nomination, plain and simple. This is not simply a perception game being played, there are really cold hard mathematical reasons that she needs to win big.

[NJSecularist]

10. That's not true.

Even if she splits the delegates 50/50 in Texas and Ohio, she still has a chance to win the nomination. Obama has a chance to put her away on March 4, but Hillary can take this to the convention if she wins both Texas and Ohio.

I am aware of the pledged delegate math. But the superdelegates lean in her favor at this time and they could possibly put her over the top in a brokered convention.

[Nederland]

14. Technically correct

...but realistically it's not going to happen. You'd have to assume that the remaining superdelegates are going to break for the candidate with fewer pledged delegates, a smaller number of states won, and a smaller share of the popular vote. I seriously doubt that will happen.

[NJSecularist]

17. It could happen. And given this is like Hillary's last chance at the presidency

she will do whatever is possible to win the nomination.

Let's be realistic here: If she wins both Texas and Ohio by small margins, do you really think she is going to withdraw? No chance in hell. She will take her fight to Pennsylvania and all the way to Puerto Rico. It doesn't matter if she splits the Ohio/Texas delegates 50/50, if she wins the Ohio and Texas popular vote, she will carry on to the convention. That is her only chance to win, and she will do that.

[Nederland]

20. On that we agree

Hillary Clinton will always put herself before the good of the party and the country.

[Omega3]

22. it's not just about states won but actually where those states are,

if you look at many of his wins, Kansas, GA, AL, SC, ND, UT, ID, NE, VI, LA, AK, all these states are RED states and they just won't be going for him in the GE no matter what he won them by. It's just not going to happen, especially with a Republicon race already ended and many states with open primaries wherby ppl are messing with the results. What's next, an Obama win in Indiana?

Granted he did win Minn and Maine but but Minn has to be, along with Mass, the most Democratic state in the country, do you really think if HC get the nom that they will suddenly revolt and vote Rethug? No way!

He barely won Conn by 4 pts, HC won has won in all traditional Dem states like CA, NY, NJ, Mass, NH, she's winning big in Vermont and Ohio.

I'm just not convinced he's the real deal.

[grantcart]

15. If she loses either one she is finished per her own campaign

If her lead goes down and she hangs on to a narrow victory it will be both a psychological loss and a practical loss because the delegates are awarded proportionally. Indeed because Texas distributes delegates to congressional disticts based on past election turnout it is entirely possible that if Clinton wins narrowly in Texas she could lose the delegate battle because of an unusually low hispanic turn out last election cycle.

[NJSecularist]

21. Yes, I agree, if she loses one, she is finished

But if she wins both, she is certainly not finished, regardless of whether she wins both states by 1% point.

[LakeSamish706]

3. The big problem for Hillary is that none of these states are winner take all. Thats all. n/t

[RunningFromCongress]

4. At this point, a win is a win, a loss is a big loss. Since she herself is saying she expects to win

in TX & OH. She needs to win them. If she doesn't win both, i'd say it's 75% she'll drop out. If she loses both it's 100%. If she wins both by 1 vote it's 0%.

[Thepricebreaker]

7. If she wins all 3 Primaries under 60% she will still be behind Obama

[RunningFromCongress]

12. But wins would effect momentum of the race, the thing SDs will most likely look at.

[Pirate Smile]

5. She needs to win Ohio, Texas and Penn. by over 20 points.

Along with pretty much all the rest of the states.

[Iceburg]

11. She just needs to keep winning the big states. Popular vote!!! /nt

[RunningFromCongress]

13. Again, she'd need to win big to take a PV lead.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

16. I'm going to be canvassing for Obama this weekend here in Waco, TX

we will not let her take Texas!

I have called my whole, rather large, family, and they are all voting Obama. Just to give you an idea of their usual voting habits, almost all of them voted Bush in the last 2 elections!

GOBAMA!

[Araxen]

18. Let me guess

Hillary and co majored in miracles and not in math too??

[quantass]

19. Was doing some Calculations Yesterday....

and found out that if in the unlikelihood that they split HI and WI evenly (50/50) and we just consider pledged delegates then Clinton would need to win ALL 4-states (TX, OH,Verm,Rhod) occuring on March 4th by at least 25 points (all 4) just to break even with Obama in those delegates. If however he wins HI and/or WI then it goes slightly higher than 25. Recall that this does not include PA which occurs much later down the line giving Obama an advantage to focus and get his message out to help reduce that gap.

[Cronus Protagonist]

23. Ultimately, the Democratic party will have to count ALL the votes

Subverting representation due to politics will not play well in this country (this time around) and I expect to see the disenfranchised people's delegates seated and voting.