Clinton leading by 21 in Ohio, 16 in Pennsyvlania, Cross tabs reveal big weakness for Obama

[jackson_dem]

-snip-

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 55% to 34%, among likely voters.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead of Obama, 52% to 36%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/14/quinnipiac_clinton_leads_in_ohio_pennsylvania.html

-snip-

Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men back her 52 - 42 percent. Clinton leads 64 - 28 percent among white Democrats, while Obama leads 64 - 17 percent among black voters.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 34 percent with women, 49 - 39 percent with men and 58 - 31 percent among whites. Obama leads 71 - 10 percent among black Democrats.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1142&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

In related news the coronation of St. Obama has been postponed. ;)

The real deal is Hillary has a good chance of sweeping the four March 4 states (Rhode Island and Vermont also vote that day and Hillary does best in progressive states) or at least winning three of the four (Vermont being rural may give Obama a fighting chance despite the lack of rethugs and DLC folks).

[MadBadger]

1. For the millionth time, check the date on the poll.

[jackson_dem]

2. February 6-12

What seems to be the problem?

[MadBadger]

3. Half of the results are before Saturday's Primaries, and All of them are before Potomac.

[jackson_dem]

15. So what?

How big a deal where they for non political junkies? Not nearly enough to erase such a big lead and to help Obama overcome such fundamental demographic problems.

Ohio, Texas are not Virginia, Maryland, or Louisiana. They are not even Nebraska or Washington. Everyone knew Obama was going to win those states.

[XemaSab]

65. I seem to recall the projection was that Washington was going to be close...

:shrug:

[still_one]

80. I have no problem with the date of the poll, but it will be interesting

what happens in the next week

[spooky3]

108. Having lived in the midwest most of my life, my opinion is

Democrats in OH could not care less what people in VA, MD or anyone else think about politics. They will make up their own minds about the candidates.

[anamandujano]

115. Exactly! Fark the big MO, and then some.

Yup.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. What happened on the 12th?

Oh yeah, the Virginia, Maryland and DC primaries.

This poll has yet to show the bounce -- if there will be any -- of Obama winning those three primaries.

I'm guessing, though, there will be a huge bounce.

[MadBadger]

6. Not to mention Lousiana, Washington, and Nebraska were on Feb 9th

So 4 days worth of polling actually ocurred before those state's results were reported.

[Hoof Hearted]

37. Yes, all the world waits with bated breath for Nebraska.

And I would know.

[pbca]

8. It will be bigger

After he takes Wisconsin and Hawaii, making it 10 in a row and secures some Labor and Political endorsements that are rumored to be coming in the next few days.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Yup.

Obama's already starting to surge in Wisconsin, going from being down 9 last week, to being up by as much as 11 in one poll.

[jackson_dem]

18. And what if he gets upset in Wisconsin?

He has a 4 point lead in the latest poll and the recent contests have all shown Hillary does best with folks who decide the day of the vote.

[pbca]

31. I haven't thought about it much

Obama has done better in actual voting than he was doing in the polls in every state since Super Tuesday. He is up 15-20% (depending on which polls you look at) in the Wisconsin polls in the last two weeks and is only really beginning to campaign there in earnest. I see no reason why this trend should suddenly reverse itself.

[jackson_dem]

63. One reason is because his lead in Wisconsin is not growing and may even be shrinking

[pbca]

66. Since when? Do you mean

In the last few hours? According to the most recent polls I've seen there it's still going up. And, if the rumors are correct there will be some labor endorsements in the next few days that will help in WI (and OH, TX, PA, etc.,)

[jackson_dem]

71. He led by 11 earlier and the latest poll has his lead at 4

[Drunken Irishman]

84. Those are different polls, though.

[jackson_dem]

103. That is all we have

There isn't as much polling for Wisconsin as there was for the first four states. Obama may be hurt by refusing to debate in front of Wisconsin voters.

[Drunken Irishman]

82. He was down almost 10 a week ago.

The trend is in his favor. Don't you think his lead will continue to rise there?

[ORDem]

64. If the national daily tracking poll by Rasmussen is any indicator

the bounce began after the 12th and is HUGE.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

:dem:

[grantcart]

30. what these guys simply don't understand is that a 21 point lead

at this time is a death sentence for Clinton. She won't be able to maintain it and when it tightens all of the comentary will go negative against her. "Her comeback has stalled" etc.

It's all academic anyway. She is not going to get more than 50% of the delegates in Texas for reasons 1) There is no advantage in Texas for winning the state its all by cd and her support is concentrated in a few cd so that Obama will most likely take more cd than Hillary. 2) The allocation of delegates is based on last election performance and the Latino districts which are best suited for Hillary have the lowest delegation counts and 3) Texas is 2/3 primary and 1/3 caucus. We already know that Hillary doesn't like caucuses (I wonder if she actually wins these caucuses would they count?)


The delegate-rich districts are the most heavily liberal state senate districts. According to this calculation, they're in Austin and in two of the most concentrated African American parts of the state. Advantage: Obama.


This is all based on Hillary taking the popular vote. She could lose it in Texas.

http://www.star-telegram.com/national_news/story/464900.html

Democrats:

Total: Texas will send 228 delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention.

Breakdown: 126 of those delegates will vote for candidates based on election results, representing the state's 31 senatorial districts.

Special delegates: 35 will be superdelegates, mostly elected or high-ranking officials, who are all unpledged and may back whichever candidate they choose.

Caucus: The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system. Forty-two will be rank-and-file, at-large Democrats, and 25 will be leaders and elected officials.

[CreekDog]

5. So the weakness is that he isn't white?

Just trying to see what you are actually saying, but won't say.

[jackson_dem]

29. Did he turn white in Idaho and Utah?

Obamites need to stop blaming racism for every loss he suffers. Not everyone buys the Obama package.

[CreekDog]

58. But the OP is posting Obama's weakness among "white" voters

so I asked you why he is doing poorly among those white voters while he has been able to do very well among white voters elsewhere.

If you think my explanation is racism, you are wrong. Think of another reason that's plausible.

[jackson_dem]

76. He's struggled with working folks in general and especially white working people

These two states have a high proportion of them. It is a myth obscured by his 85-15 advantage with blacks (is that because of racism against Hillary in your view? That is bigger than Hill's advantage with whites and holds in every state) that he has done well with white voters elsewhere. He's lost whites almost everywhere.

[CreekDog]

88. I didn't say it was because of racism

However, Obama only gained a big advantage among blacks when Hillary's campaign was accused of using race-related tactics designed to highlight Obama's race.

In that case, are black voters voting out of racism or against it? The latter I would argue, and it's not racist to say that this issue would be of particular importance to a racial minority.

As for whites, I think it's more related to geography and the fact that he has not campaigned or gained a network everywhere, though where he has, he has done very well among white voters, racism doesn't seem to be a problem.

Complete enough answer for you?

[greguganus]

81. Those Racist Cheese Heads!! n/t

[desi]

39. Why interject race?

The OP is quoting data. The same data that is collected in exit polls. The data shows that Obama is quite strong among Black Democrats and that is not a problem is it?

[CreekDog]

48. I'm asking why he is not doing well among white voters

You tell me.

[desi]

57. I'm not White so I can only guess

so I'll just guess that they simply prefer my candidate :shrug:

[SpooningNinja]

7. Wow! After all the campaigning Obama has done in those states...

I'm shocked! Usually when Obama campaigns, his polling numbers shoot way up. He has spent tons of time in money and those states and it hasn't worked. I'm absolutely shocked!

Oh...wait a second.

P.S. Check where Obama was polling in all of the Super Tuesday states a month before; check where he was polling in Saturday's primaries a month before; check where he was polling in the Potomac Primaries the month before. He is going to have a solid 2 weeks to spend in Ohio and Texas and was only down 10 in Texas. If Hillary doesn't win Texas, it doesn't matter if these polls are perfectly accurate. She'll be done.

[jaysunb]

14. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Usrename]

110. Welcome to DU SpooningNinja.

Obama has peaked!

After he has already achieved escape velocity.

[Botany]

10. Internals reveal big weakness for Obama

:rofl:

poor guy he is just winning women, men, young, old, educated,
workers, Hispanics, blacks, students, indies, repubs, liberals,
conservative dems, and church going "folk."

[jackson_dem]

26. In Ohio and Pennsylvania? Which poll has showed that?

Some blocs are bigger than others. He has a big problem with the largest voting group of them all in Ohio.

[NJSecularist]

32. Yeah, and he had the same problem in Connecticut

It's 3 weeks away.

Or should we already give St. Hillary Ohio and the nomination?

[Botany]

104. that was from no poll

It was from the vote.

OH & PA will follow too.

[zulchzulu]

11. Bookmarking to show later...

We'll see what happens...

[Kittycat]

12. A few notes.

As it's been shown in state after state... Time is always on Obama's side when it comes to shrinking those leads.

The poll doesn't show the bounce after the recent wins.

The undecided/other is HUGE - and causing a major skew in those polls. Upwards of 19 points in some cases.

I don't dispute that she holds the advantage of the win. I dispute that the win will be enough to keep her competitive.


And what is this comment about?
"(Vermont being rural may give Obama a fighting chance despite the lack of rethugs and DLC folks). "
HRC is our DLC Candidate, or did you miss that big fat picture of her on their website?

[jackson_dem]

21. I go by data. The fact is the most DLC states are the most pro Obama states

They aren't fooled by pictures. They know Obama's policies are in sync with their beliefs.

[Kittycat]

38. You really don't know your candidate, do you?

[jackson_dem]

46. I do. I know what the voters in Idaho, North Dakota, Utah, and Kansas also know

They are both DLC so I chose one based on other factors.

[Zodiak]

95. Your flaw is this

Voters do not know the DLC...they haven't heard of it. When they pulled the levers, they thought they were getting Democrats.

Whole states aren't DLC....just some corporate-shilling Democrats are DLC. They hide their member lists and sneak around voting for Republican bills. The average voter doesn't know how their Senator or Congressperson votes, either. Not unless it is made in an attack ad against them.

New York has the DLC...they have Hillary. Schumer is a close call, too....he takes money from the DLC to take trips. California....also a "Hillary" state, has Diane Feinstein, also of the DLC. I fail to see how your hypothesis is holding up even if you could broad brush entire states' voters as "DLC".

The DLC do not run as DLC...they run as Democrats and then vote like Republicans, daring their constituents to vote for the other guy. They hold Democrats hostage.

Hillary is a leader in the DLC. Obama repudiated them publically. That is the bare fact.

[mohc]

24. About rural support

NY Times Democratic Map

Aside from rural counties in the "Black Belt" of the Deep South, Clinton is the one racking up rural counties. Last I checked I do not think Vermont has a particularly large (read: almost none) rural black population. So I do not know what the comment is about either.

[jefferson_dem]

13. She's absolutely the front-runner in Ohio. If she doesn't win there with a huge margin of victory.

where can she win? I just hope Obama can keep it close. :)

[Botany]

17. I live in Ohio

Obama will be fine in Ohio. The population supports many groups that
have shown big support for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

19. Yup. If she loses there it is over

[smiley_glad_hands]

16. FYI, the Clintons are the DLC. eom

[Barack_America]

20. Where are these "internals" you speak of?

Neither of the links refer to them.

[Coexist]

23. that is what I was wondering...

those are the poll #s, not the Obama internals.

[MadBadger]

27. I believe the correct terminlogy is Cross tab

[MadBadger]

22. Oh, and Obama will win Pennsylvania

He will have over a month to wage an Iowa style campaign there, and he will win.

[rox63]

25. VT is possibly the most liberal state in the country

They will go for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

34. Just like Massachussetts did even though he had Kennedy, Kerry, and the governor behind him?

The liberal states are Hillary's best.

[rox63]

42. I'm from MA - I know what happened here

Hillary had a ground game here for at least a couple of years. One of the few places she actually had a good ground game.

[jackson_dem]

51. And California and New Jersey?

[XemaSab]

73. She won California on the strength of the Central Valley (eg FRESNO)

and parts of Southern California.

The more liberal areas of the state went for Obama.

[smalll]

55. Wrong way to put it, the "liberal states are Hillary's best" -- he'll take VT, she'll take RI. /nt

[ProSense]

28. In Nov 2007 Hillary was leading Obama 48% to 15% in PA and 42% to 17% in Ohio

PA
OH

[jackson_dem]

54. They don't give wins for good efforts ProSense

He is running out of time. Much of his gains come from Edwards' leaving. It is interesting that while he has gained a lot in most states he has only went from 25 down to 21 down in Ohio...

[ProSense]

69. The efforts aren't over. There's still time! n/t

[BeyondGeography]

33. Obama is hurting for help in Ohio...witness this weak turnout of volunteers

last night in Columbus:



Only about 1,000 people.

Good thing they hadn't heard about that darned Quinnipiac poll.

[angie_love]

36. OMG, thanks for that pic, man I'm alittle down by that poll but this pic brings my spirits up again.

[BeyondGeography]

40. Don't be down...here's another one for your spirits

Plenty of students in Ohio, too.

[AtomicKitten]

47. wow! look at their faces!

Yes, he can!

[BeyondGeography]

49. That's right...Best photo of the campaign, IMHO

or any campaign in recent memory, for that matter.

[Barack_America]

41. I think it's a good thing...

Refocuses volunteers in the states yet to come. I'm in PA and was starting to feel a little, "do I really have to get out there, or is this thing locked up?"--not anymore!

[jackson_dem]

56. President Dean agrees. Volunteers and moeny are the keys to winning

[BeyondGeography]

60. Obama and Dean will work beautifully together with the Clintons out of the way

Bright times are ahead for the party, once you lose that avatar.

[XemaSab]

83. I'm proud to have an Obama sticker

next to my Dean sticker. :D

[cottonseed]

67. Nice photos and information.

From what I understand, Obama's just getting his ground game going anyways. I think these poll numbers will be drastically different come time to vote.

[juajen]

78. There is no doubt he can fire people up. It's all that glitter he dispenses,.

Nevertheless, I will keep my fingers crossed for Hillary.

[book_worm]

35. Obama has work to do, but still more than two weeks before Ohio

and Obama hasn't really concentrated on that state and PA is way in April!

[Hoof Hearted]

43. Good job Jackson! You really brought out the haters on this one!

[jackson_dem]

61. Hoof, why are they so nervous and angry about a candidate who is "done" leading?

Could it be that they don't believe their own elated burials of Hillary? The facts are Hillary is very much alive and could take back momentum on March 4. There are plenty of states left on the table, like Kentucky, after March 4 that no one has talked about.

[rodeodance]

72. :-)

[Hoof Hearted]

96. I don't know Jackson! She's sooooooo, like totally, like OVER - ya know?

*smack* *smack*

Totally.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

44. Not enough

If Hillary does not get *at least* 60% in Texas and Ohio she is toast. That us unless our part boss overlords anoint her at the convention

[Thrill]

45. Of Course he has yet to Campaign in either place

[smalll]

50. About Rhode Island and Vermont that you mentioned -

Not seen any polls at all. I'm very confident that Hillary can take RI -- she took MA even with Kerry, Kennedy, and Governor Deval Patrick against her, and the demographics of the states are very similar, except that RI is even more working class and even more Catholic. Fewer latte liberals, and far fewer colleges - sure, Obama has Providence, put let's put it this way, Brown University is a relatively small school, even for an Ivy League.

But Vermont! I'd have to guess that would go to Obama -- Dean was from there, after all, and it's pretty much an exurb of the Upper West Side (NYC) at this point.

[dansolo]

112. Hillary will not win RI

Obama has picked up an endorsement from Lincoln Chaffee. Even though he is a Republican, he is extremely popular, even amongst Democrats. His endorsement will be a big boost for Obama.

[smalll]

114. But again, if Kennedy, Kerry and Gov. Patrick couldn't swing MA for Obama,

I don't think there's great cause for believing that ex-Senator, liberal Republican Chafee can swing RI for him. Again, it just seems to me that demographically, Rhode Island is very much like Massachusetts, just better (for Hillary.)

[WatchWhatISay]

52. Why aren't they reporting numbers for Texas?

I think I know why.

[XemaSab]

53. If Hillary does best in progressive states

How does that explain western Virginia?

Or Minnesota?

Or Oklahoma?

Or Washington?

Or Arkansas?

:shrug:

[jackson_dem]

85. As a general rule

List all the states she has won and compare that list to Obama's. ;)

[XemaSab]

100. Okay

*Big Blue States*

California where she LOST San Francisco, Marin, Santa Cruz, Humboldt, and Santa Barbara but WON Fresno, Redding, Bakersfield, San Diego, Orange County, and the Inland Empire.

New York where she pulled off every county but one in the state, but only beat Obama in Brooklyn by a narrow 50% to 48%.

Massachusetts where she won nine counties and lost 5, but among the areas she lost were Boston and Martha's Vineyard.

New Hampshire where the counties were split 5 to 5, but she only won by 3%, while Edwards was still pulling 17%.

New Jersey where she lost Trenton and Newark.


*Swing States*

Nevada which she won by 6% in a caucus.

Arizona where she did well but which we're unlikely to win in November.

New Mexico which was virtually tied.

Florida (to give you the benefit of the doubt) she also did very well in. Sort of.


*Other States*

Oklahoma where she lost OKC. This was one of her two wins with a greater than 20% lead, Arkansas being the other one.

Arkansas where she was the hometown favorite. No surprise there.

Tennessee where she lost Nashville, Chattanooga, and Memphis.


Then Obama's got in his "true blue" column Washington (where he won ALL the counties), Minnesota, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, Maryland, and Illinois.

For swing states, Obama got Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, Louisiana, and Georgia.

And then yes, Obama did get a BUNCH of red states, including Alaska, Idaho (all the counties but one), Utah, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Alabama, and South Carolina.


That's how I figure it. :shrug:

[GOTV]

59. Lead is down to 17

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e76b808

[desi]

62. I'm gonna K&R

and hope that my fellow Buckeyes come through for Our Girl!

[Blackhatjack]

68. So Ohio, Penn, and Texas hang in the balance. IF you live in one of these 3 , what do you think?

While individuals can only report what they see and hear, which may not be representative for the entire state, I would like to know what they are hearing from their fellow citizens regarding the Obama v. Clinton contest.

[cottonseed]

70. It's going to be a long fall.

From what I understand, Obama is just starting his ground game in Ohio. Thousands of volunteers out ready to roll. This poll numbers will be run through the wash within just a few days.

[Auntie Bush]

74. I wonder if the bias MSM or MSNBC will mention this poll tonight?

Bet Tweety has nothing to say about it. There will be no discussion by talking heads of a possibility that Obama might lose these states and how that will/could effect the election and their prediction that Obama has this in the bag.

[MadBadger]

86. MSNBC has been playing it up all dayside long

[Auntie Bush]

75. Delete please...double post

[Hill_YesWeWill]

77. you know if it was the opposite way around, Hillary would just give up on those states

right? that's what she's done so far. In states where she's polling low she gives up and says that state didn't matter.

Well, Obama, when he's polling low he get's himself and his ground game in that state and he works for the votes,

I think I like his way better!

That's not to say Hillary doesn't work hard, but Obama has had to come from 20 or more points behind in All of the states they've competed in except maybe Illinois, and look what he's done!

[jackson_dem]

89. She doesn't have the money a candidate who raises $1 million a day has

[angie_love]

94. Funny b/c Terry McAuliffe was on NBC today saying Hillary is raising 1 million a day now plus she

raised 140 million for her campaign in the last year and squandered most of that money on Iowa and New Hampshire. Just bad bad money management from that campaign. But you conveniently fail to mention that huh? This is a pattern for her camp. In her 2006 re-election bid in the senate, she wasted about 30 million dollars with only 10 million on hand.

[XemaSab]

91. The beauty of the big ground game....

all those people are going to be FIRED UP AND READY TO GO in November! :D

[Hutzpa]

79. We should all pack our bags and go home then n/t

[ronnykmarshall]

87. She needs to step down and endorse Obama

for the good of the nation.

:sarcasm:

[intaglio]

97. No need for the sarcasm smiley

We all know you are right :+ :P :evilgrin:

[GOTV]

90. The lead is shrinking -- now only 14 points

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

edit to fix typo

[ORDem]

101. ... and he hasn't even stepped into the state yet. n/t

:dem:

[GOTV]

102. Yes, it's the boost from his recent wins. Will it hold? I don't know. n/t

[Auntie Bush]

92. VT will probably go Obama. This is Dean country. Dean is DNC. n/t

[SOS]

93. Quinnipiac poll in December

had Giuliani winning Florida by 18 points.

Right on the money!

[jackson_dem]

98. As if winning Nebraska is the same as Iowa, NH, Michigan, and South Carolina

;)

The early states get special hype and shift momentum a lot more than Nebraska or Maryland.

[IndieLeft]

99. I got somedifferent numbers... From this week that show him gaining.

Ohio:

Total:

Clinton 56%
Obama 39%

Early Votes:
Clinton 51%
Obama 47%

Likely Voters:
Cliton 56%
Obama 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e76b808

[bluestateguy]

105. These strike me as patently false, and possibly fraudulent

Quinnipiac should release the data sets and let the people decide if everything was on the up and up with their "polling".

[PATRICK]

109. Less fraudulent than old

Likely voters, group polling movement, latest primary and public sentiment moves. The victories in NY and NJ and Michigan. This all seems in the ballpark along with the likelihood that Obama will close the gap. Likely he will win by a few percent at least should that thing people like to call momentum holds. these are also big states and difficult to organize for. At this stage the surge there might favor Obama very much. I don't think the poll is anything to get excited about. At the time it was taken it could be very legitimate. Things have changed significantly in national polling to show that those numbers are unlikely to hold for Clinton. 52% is a bare majority and the surge in voter participation alone makes it a bit shaky.

Nerves.

[TalkAgain]

106. WOW, very impressive, except:

Obama will win TX and OH on March 4th.

[loveangelc]

116. how do you figure?

[TalkAgain]

117. More people will vote for him.

[PetraPooh]

107. Yep, and Hillary was supposed to be a slam dunk on SuperTuesday

and that ended up being quite wrong. I shan't be worried. I decided a while back that I would be happy so long as Hillary was NOT the Dem candidate. I'm still smiling, I'm still happy. These polls had me fooled and sad once, even twice, but not this time. I'll wait for reality the evening of the polls.

[jackson_dem]

111. Then why 100 replies of worried Obamites screaming "done" Hillary "will" lose for sure?

[donf]

113. I am from Ohio, and while I am not a die-hard Obama supporter,

I know and talk to lots of Democrats where I live (Columbus), and I know NO ONE who is supporting Hillary. Seriously – not one person I have spoken to. Mostly I know people who feel the way I do. They were either Kucinich or Edwards supporters who are disappointed with the calculated media disenfranchisement of our candidates. So we are left with two candidates we feel are too corporate and centrist for our liking, with very little difference in terms of policy. Given the choice between the two, I am going to vote for the candidate who did not unapologetically vote for the Iraq war, and who does not carry the baggage of being hated with a fervency that is hard to fathom by an overwhelming majority of the Republican rank and file, and is disliked and distrusted by a large percentage of Democrats. I think Ohio is going to go to Obama by a sizable margin, regardless of what the polls say now.