But this is what Nevada says....right now.
"Thursday, February 14, 2008
Nevada has cast its Electoral College Votes for the winning candidate in seven straight Presidential Elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote.
Looking ahead to November 2008, Barack Obama has a twelve-point lead over John McCain in a general election match-up. Obama attracts 50% of the vote while McCain earns 38%.
At the same time, McCain has a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 40%.
Nationally, Obama outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups against McCain. However, the gap is not as large nationally as it is in Nevada. A similar dynamic was found in New Hampshire and Colorado. Clinton and Obama are essentially even with McCain in Missouri.
When matched against Clinton in Nevada, McCain enjoys a seven-point lead among unaffiliated voters. However, among those same voters, Obama leads McCain by thirty-two points."
More..
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_general