Evidence that Hillary is far behind, take a look at what Obama supporters are worrying about

[CreekDog]

Thread after thread is not worried that he will lose the big states. Most hope that he will pad his lead.

If Hillary was likely or even slighly able to pull even with Obama in TX OH and PA, they would be worrying about that.

It's telling that they are now worrying about the superdelegates which can overturn a plurality of votes in the primary process.

It's telling that Hillary's campaign had to tell its supporters it could win with superdelegates in order to convince them she is still viable --that should tell everyone that winning by margins that will get her a lead in pledged delegates is not conceivable at worst and only a remote possibility at best.

Notice the dynamics going on. People, collectively are figuring out the actual potential for nomination of their candidate and the circumstances required for it to happen and you see two stories.

For Obama's supporters, the key is for him to hang in there and keep going as he has been doing. He no longer needs to beat Hillary everywhere, he no longer needs to run up large margins on her either.

For Hillary's supporters, the key for her is to run up huge margins 35% in TX OH and PA or run up big margins 20% in all future contests to tie him in pledged delegates and then use her advantage in superdelegates to get the nomination. This is hard because without the big victories, she doesn't even pull even using superdelegates she has and the farther behind she gets, the less likely it becomes that she will hang on to superdelegates she claims and even less likely than that she picks up any more superdelegates.

Compare these two and now you see why we have heard incredible spin from Hillary because she is trying to prove to people she is viable still, but those people have all the info she does and won't simply buy it. I think this also explains why she at first gave up on Wisconsin and now is fighting there, because if she loses big there, it hurts her viability. Secondly, nobody believes that she can withstand big losses anymore. For every one delegate she loses to Obama is one she has to make up later in addition to all the delegates she is currently behind.

The most off the wall thing is that she is just hoping for a major flameout and being there to step in, as Huckabee is hanging around in case McCain dies and is ready to step in should that occur (no, I'm not kidding).

[TexasObserver]

1. "Huckabee is hanging around in case McCain dies and is ready to step in"

That is exactly what Huck is doing. He knows if McCain croaks or becomes incapacitated, Huck could step in.

[XemaSab]

10. Earlier someone brought up how the presidency ages people

Dude, if McCain gets in he's going to look like Teh Emperor from Star Wars after 4 years, much less 8. :P

[Vinca]

16. Huck keeps talking about a "miracle" and the only thing that could be

is McBush dropping dead on the trail.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

2. As an Obama supporter, I hope you're right, but I'm not taking anything for granted here in Texas!

it's not over till it's over, and I intend to work my but off!

[NMMatt]

3. Exactly

Win Texas and we put this thing away! That should be motivation enough.

[CreekDog]

5. That's absolutely right. His supporters are a big part of his success

and they are needed as much as ever, also all the campaigning now will also help in the general election to make Obama competitive in more places.

finally, if Obama is able to continue leading and build on that lead, the superdelegate issue basically takes care of itself and he wins despite them. further, it makes Florida and Michigan's problematic votes not decisive in the nomination, but possibly still able to count and thus less likely to split the party apart.

So it makes sense to work for Obama so that he wins big from here on out.

That said, he is turning out to be an incredible candidate to put one's hope for electoral success into.

:hi:

[XemaSab]

4. I feel like the election has really gone round a bend

(not THE bend, a bend) in the last two or three days.

I'm just hoping that Hillary manages to come out of this with some dignity, and that she doesn't try to push it all the way to the convention.

If Hillary wins the nomination based on Florida, Michigan, and the superdelegates, it's going to be a DISASTER for the party.

After the bitterness caused by the BFEE in 2004 and 2000, we CANNOT have a candidate who has even the appearance of impropriety. :(

[still_one]

7. If she wins the nomination that way, she will NOT win the general election

There are cross-over votes who support Barrack, but will not support Hillary. There are also Barrack supporters who will NOT vote in the general election for president, if Hillary wins through the MI and FL delegates getting seated without a redo, and or through the SD

Neither side can win without each others supporters

If that does happen, and we lose the general election as I suspect, the party will then have reached the bottom, and start to rebuild itself

[XemaSab]

9. I'd like to think that we bottomed out in 2004

While on the surface the election looked close, dude... we should have been able to carry ALL 50 STATES.

There was really no excuse for that, and it's not about John Kerry or anyone else in particular, it's a MASSIVE failure that was 25+ years in the making.

I think electing Howard DNC chair was a big gamble for a lot of party hacks, especially since most Americans know him as the crazy scream guy, but I'm hoping that was our moment when the family sits you down and tells you how destructive your behavior has been and stages a full on intervention.

I think Obama has had two teachers: 1992 Bill Clinton and 2004 Howard Dean, and he's put their ideas and methods together to build what will hopefully be a loyal coalition that will serve him faithfully for years to come. :)

If we can pull this thing off. :hide:

[still_one]

18. 2004 should have been the bottom, and 2006 would tend to point that way

However, Congress still has done very little. Most of it is just talk without action.

Very interesting point how Barrack might have combined the good points from Bill Clinton and Howard Dean to propel his campaign and ideas

[flor de jasmim]

11. The Clintons' recent disparaging comments are worrisome...

(I saw on a previous thread a newbie being criticized for not introducing himself as a new member of DU. I am as well, and didn't realize I should... I'm an American living in Denmark, in the first months of the campaign being torn by Dodd, Biden, Edwards, Obama & Kucinich, finally ended up sending money to Edwards, and now hope Obama gets a clear victory in WI and TX).

I have the feeling that people in the Clinton campaign (particularly) forget that the Internet(s) is(are) out there and NOTHING goes away--belittling the people who did not vote for her in the primary will not endear them to vote for her in the general election. It will be a tragedy if the enormous turnout (enormous by U.S., not international, standards) is not repeated in the general election. (Whitney Houston's song "One moment in time" just ran through my mind).

When people pay attention to what is going on in government, they form and express their opinions more frequently--what Obama does it get people involved in the process. Yesterday I read a thread about 700 people turning up to volunteer for Obama--that is tremendous power. There are no similar stories coming out of the Clinton campaign.

[Samantha]

20. Welcome to DU

We hope you will like it here.

Sam

[still_one]

6. I am not worried, if Hillary wins the big states, and the popular vote, so be it

but if she or Obama lose the popular vote but win the nomination by super delegates, we will lose the general election, and it will be time to rebuild the party

For 8 years many of the Democrats in Congress essentially gave bush everything he asked for.

In 2006 we regained control over Congress, and still the best we can get from the Democratic leaders is lip service without substance

It would be nice if our nominee wins through the will of the people and not the super delegates, but if that doesn't happen, I suspect we will lose the general election because the candidate's supporters who lost because of the Super Delegates will not be particularly motivated to vote for President in the general election. If that happens, the party will then start to rebuild itself

[CreekDog]

8. It would be so bad for the party and nominee if the primary process is overruled by superdelegates

That's why I hope for a clear cut winner and I hope it's Obama.

I'm worried at this point that the use of racial politics by the Hillary campaign, as well as the marginalizing of so many states and voters has done irreperable damage to any general election hopes for her. Which is another reason I hope she loses the nomination. I also hope she loses it big so that it will be a message to everyone that this type of campaigning is a losing strategy.

And I can't stand Mark Penn and don't want him influencing policy for the next 4 or 8 years, even if it is within a Democratic administration. I don't trust his judgement and I have not seen any evidence that Hillary ever overrules him.

[still_one]

17. I understand and mostly agree with your sentiments, but if they won this way

that would also signal the end of their reign within the party

[oasis]

12. "Thread after thread".... Umm Hello, this is DU world.

:eyes:

[Moh96]

13. nice thread enjoyed reading it

[cloudythescribbler]

14. Accurate observations -- though I would insist that a COMMANDING lead is important for Obama ... nt

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

15. K&R. Good point about Huck too.

[Independent-Voter]

19. Obama's ground campaign has simply been incredible

I've followed politics for 30 years, and the only thing that approaches it is Reagan's 1984 election. The Dems need to keep this in mind for the future.