ZOGBY: Obama solidifying National Lead Over McCain

[mikekohr]

A new national poll by John Zogby shows Senator Obama solidifying his lead over Senator McCain, while Senator Clinton's support slumps, losing to McCain and barely edging out Mike Huckabee.

Read poll: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1449

Senator Clinton received good news in the end of the recount in New Mexico. She narrowly edged out Senator Obama in the popular vote by just over 1,000 votes, in a race noted for confusion caused in large part by record setting turnout.

Senator Clinton closely trails Senator Obama in the upcoming Feb 19th primary in Wisconsin, a state that holds demographics favorable to her. But most significantly Senator Clinton holds leads of 20% or more in the upcoming primaries in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

The battle between the "movement" and the "machine," the "insurgent," and the "establishment," continues. This race is far from over.

mike kohr

[H2O Man]

1. As the public

gives consideration to which democrat matches up better against John McCain, Senator Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton will increase.

[Lasher]

3. Obama is ahead of Clinton in the RCP average for the first time.

The graphic is telling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[NoBorders]

5. That just needs to happen in OH and TX

soon.

[yeswecan08]

2. Come November Obama will squash McCain like a bug at the polls

[powergirl]

4. I don't dislike Sen. Clinton but Obama can win the big prize - Let's get practical here

I began the primary season as an Edwards supporter. I supported him the previous time he ran as well. That didn't work out. I reassessed and after studying the candidates, I love Obama!!! He's great. That doesn't mean that I hate Sen. Clinton. I just like Obama better AND MOST IMPORTANTLY - right now, Obama can beat McCain and it is a cold hard fact and one that we all need to recognize. Making good speeches is a GOOD THING!!! How many of you have cringed during Bush's speeches over the last 7 years - that brought shame to our country - not just on the message but on his inability to read big words. This stuff matters!!! Let's vote to stop those Republicans from strangling the life out of our country. Vote for change. Vote for our man, Obama.


:toast:

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

6. Nothing but good news for Obama...

Interesting that in both the McCain and Huckabee match-ups, there is an identical (17%) number of undecided voters. In the McCain race, I'm sure these are Christian fundamentalists who are trying to decide if they will vote at all. In the Huckabee race, I'm sure they're Independents and Moderate Republicans trying to decide if there's a clothespin big enough to allow them to vote for a whackjob like Huckabee. In either case, it would appear that Obama has the potential to extend his lead either way.

Bad news for Hillary -- You're only beating Mike Huckabee by three points? The Washington Generals could beat Huckabee by three points...

[robcon]

7. ZOGBY??? Does anyone read Zogby anymore?

He's been so far off (almost 25 points in NH, and alone among all the polling organizations, almost 25 points in California) why would anyone pay any attention to Zogby, unless you put +/- 25 points next to his forecast??

He was the furthest off in the presidential final poll in '04. He is consistently too high on Obama, and too low on Clinton.

No credibility... I think his polling is a fraud.

[sunonmars]

8. Zogby is an obama superdelegates, can we laugh now. talk about bias

[JorgeTheGood]

9. Zogby ???

BWAhahahahaha ....

[Egnever]

10. Zogby lost me after California

[BenDavid]

11. Give zogby a check and your candidate will be ahead in polls

[jconner27]

12. brought and paid for

Wasn't it Zogby that said Obama was winning in Cail?

[Kahuna]

16. And Mitt! That was my clue that his polling was off and I said so at the time..

:)

[rinsd]

13. How does one solidify a lead some 9 months before and election before the campaign has started?

[mikekohr]

14. Look at the polls

It's not just Zogby. It's Rasmussen, it's Real Clear Politics, it's Newsweek, it's Time, etc., etc. etc. Polls are but snapshots in time and can be based on faulty methodology but they are useful to track trends. The polls have consistently shown, over time, that Senator Obama is our Party's strongest candidate in the general election.

Fairly or unfairly (mostly unfairly in my view) Senator Clinton has been tagged with high negatives that are poisonous in the general election. Senator Clinton can win the Presidency (and will have my vote if she is our nominee) but it will be much harder for her to pass the 50% threshold than it will be for Senator Obama and nearly impossible for her to put together a coalition that would generate a landslide victory with deep coattails that would lift the entire ticket. Senator Obama is demonstrating that he can deliver a campaign that will sweep the rotten refuse that is the remnants of the Republican Party out to sea in an election day tsunami.

mike kohr

[my3boyz]

15. No longer trust Zogby. And I certainly don't believe Obama

is 20 pts behind her in Texas.

[mikekohr]

17. Here Are A Few RCP Poll Averages

Real Clear Politics agrees with you. They show a spread in the polls of 7% to 16% in Texas in favor of Senator Clinton, the average being +10.3% in Clinton's favor.

RCP's listed spread in Ohio is 14% to 21% in Clinton's favor, the average being +17.3% to her advantage.

There is no average in Pennsylvania listed as yet but the most recent polls show the Senator from NY up 16% to 20%.

link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

I do not expect these leads to be sustained. Senator Obama has overcome similar deficits in 23 of the last 35 contests thus far and reduced the margin noted in the polls preceding the 11 victories Senator Clinton has won to this point.

Watch the margins in the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday. If Senator Obama repeats the results of the last two weeks I expect these pluralities in Clinton's favor to wither rapidly. If it's close, or Senator Clinton wins Wisconsin, then the nomination will almost certainly be decided in a brokered convention in August. If that's the case it's anybody's guess how this winds up.

mike kohr