Rasmussen Texas Poll: Hillary Clinton 54%, Barack Obama 38%, Not Sure 9%

[Hope And Change]

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary


Texas: Clinton 54% Obama 38%

Friday, February 15, 2008

When Election 2008 began, long before the first votes were cast, Senator Hillary Clinton led in the national polls but trailed Barack Obama in the key state of Iowa. Many remarked upon the difference between those national and state numbers. At Rasmussen Reports, we noted that if Clinton won Iowa, she could wrap up the nomination. On the other hand, if Obama won Iowa, he would have the chance to make his case but there would be no clear frontrunner.

Today, the situation is reversed. Obama leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and can wrap up the nomination with victories in the key states of Ohio and Texas. Clinton needs to win those states to keep her campaign alive. Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released polling data showing Clinton with a double-digit lead in Ohio and the latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Texas also shows the former First Lady on top in the Lone Star State. Clinton attracts 54% of the vote in Texas while Obama earns 38% with nearly three weeks to go until Election Day.

If Clinton is able to win in both Texas and Ohio, the race for delegates will be just about even and there will be new talking points for the Superdelegates to consider before reaching a decision.

However, just 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in Texas say they have made up their mind and are certain about their vote. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided, 5% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and 16% say they might change their mind.

Overall, 78% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 67% say the same about Obama. Among voters who are currently undecided, 59% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48% offer a positive assessment of Obama.

more...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

[Dawgs]

1. Here's another one showing him down 8%.

The dailykos blog also shows how Obama could still win more delegates; even if he loses the popular vote.

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/15/8356/43316/373/457279

[bigtree]

4. All that writing at Kos based on that poll?

On behalf of the Texas Credit Union League, Public Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns conducted two Texas statewide surveys. One survey was conducted among 400 Republican primary voters and the other among 400 Democratic primary voters. These surveys were conducted February 11-13, 2008 and each has a margin of error of + 4.9%.


Public Opinion Strategies (POS) describes itself as a "Republican polling firm" . . . SourceWatch profile here: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Public_Opinion_Strategies

[jefferson_dem]

6. More on Hillary's not-so-strong Texas firewall here - - -

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/13/4031/96963

[SIMPLYB1980]

8. Y'all ready for some more Cowboy Diplomacy.

I'm not.

[bigtree]

2. this isn't the best source, but I expect a similar trend in other upcoming polls

good news!

[Alhena]

3. She needs to reach 62% in a particular 4-delegate district to gain delegates ...

otherwise they will just split them 2-2. Most districts have 4 delegates, so the system favors inertia.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Obama doesn't get to Texas until after Wisconsin

Lots of work to do, but he should be fine.

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

7. Hillary a 16 point lead isn't going to cut it.

[Hepburn]

9. My exact thoughts. n/t