ARG: Obama takes the lead in Texas (48-42)

[Unsane]

Leads among male voters 55-29; independents 71-24; african americans 76-17; is only down 2 percent in the fight for Latino voters, 42-44; 30 percent of men say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


GO-BAMA

[goldcanyonaz]

1. ARG? Uh huh...

[Kittycat]

6. Do you have a more recent poll to share?

Where I agree ARG has issues, most of the polls being posted, aren't recent enough to matter right now.

[MadBadger]

11. A poll posted last night had him down 8, and Rasmussen has him down 16

[Obamaniac]

24. I think what it says is taken them all with a grain of salt...

It's very hard to poll primary states because the issue is always who will come out and vote.

[rodeodance]

31. I am still waiting for a response from you about your hit and run attack on Hillary people on

another thread--you whined about Hill people crying sexism--and provided no evidence--then ran- now you show up hear.

[Kittycat]

43. Also issues with distribution of delegates in TX.

I read that their delegates are distributed by 2004 turnout. And in the southern most hispanic areas, despite high registration, they had the lowest turnout - therefore fewer delegates.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

58. Here's the best explanation of how Texas delegates are distributed I know of.

Hopefully this will answer all your questions and put your mind to rest.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4877

The 67 caucus chosen delegates are what I've found people to be the most confused about.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

20. This poll was released today n/t

[totodeinhere]

23. That ARG poll was just released today.

You can't get any more recent than that. But if you average out all of the polls it's probably a toss up. But as we know, a toss up would be a victory for Obama and would virtually eliminate Clinton.

[Kittycat]

45. I mean other than ARG.

And unless there's a more recent poll - I'll take this one, but just with a grain of salt. I'm all for seeing Obama push ahead on the polls - but ARG isn't exactly the bastion of poll accuracy. That's all.

[BenDavid]

47. Lets be real here people.....here is the latest polling in texas

Texas Polls
TCUL: Clinton 49, Obama 41
InsAdv: Clinton 48, Obama 41
Rasmussen: Clinton +16

[RiverStone]

52. Thanks for sharing - I don't want Obama folks to take anything for granted!

Texas can seal the deal for him.

But he needs to fight as if he is 30 points down...

Once he shows up and hits the streets - that is when you will see BIG poll shifts.

I know - that is not what you want - but it has happened in every state he has campaigned for some time in.

[Kittycat]

55. not discounting those at all.

But can you please include dates on those polls - just so people have that understanding as well?

Thank you.

[Thepricebreaker]

Holy shit - her lead just evaporated.

[TwilightGardener]

2. Seriesly?

[Unsane]

12. omg yes i'm series; this is hugh

!!11!one!

[jefferson_dem]

3. Boo-ya!

Hillary-friendly ARG even. :bounce:

[BeyondGeography]

4. The worst of all the polling outfits

But, what the hell, I'll take it anyway.

[JackORoses]

38. all the polls are showing movement in Obama's favor, that's what counts

;)

[GodlessBiker]

5. I am stunned. Let's see if some other outfit confirms this.

[Dems Will Win]

27. They will. Hillary fired her Latina Campaign Manager and Hispanics are angriliy switching

to Obama.
She was Mexican American too, so the firing of Patty Solis Doyle really bites Hil in TX.

[Thepricebreaker]

7. If this is true - pull out the silver fork.

[Invidious]

8. Hmmm how much did Hill need to win TX by again? LOL n/t

[MadBadger]

9. No thank you

Rasmussen has him down 16 (though i dont trust them either) and another Polling outfit has him down 8, which I think is trustworthy.

[Unsane]

21. Don't shoot the messenger.

It's the first poll I've seen that has him up. Just thought I'd post it. He's got like 3 more weeks to close the deal in the Lone Star stae. I think he can do it.

[Egnever]

22. Yea think I will pass on this one as well.

It sounds like an out-lier to me. When more confirm it I'll sleep better.

[Alhena]

10. Did Rasmussen sample Republicans?

trying to reconcile these polls- this one definitely seems an outlier.

The close Hispanic vote is very encouraging, thoguh- especially since Obama just needs to keep Hillary from getting more than 62.5% of the vote in these 4-delegate hispanic districts to avoid a 2-2 delegate split.

Hillary could win El Paso 4-delegate districts by 61%-39% and they'd split the delegates evenly. Not really fair, but that's life.

[rox63]

13. That sounds different from the other polls I've heard about lately

But it is encouraging.

[babylonsister]

14. Wow. I expect this to happen in a week or so; wonder who they polled? nt

[Independent-Voter]

15. I'm going to wait for a couple more polls to come in, but this shouldn't be surprising

Hillary is simply a horrid candidate with no ground campaign. Obama has swept every election since Super Tuesday with an incredibly savvy staff and focus I haven't seen in years. Outside of this echo chamber, folks on the other side of the aisle have been impressed with how he's run his campaign.

[maximusveritas]

16. ARG has no credibility

I'd love to believe that, but there's no way it's true.

[mckeown1128]

17. A crapfull polling firm but I will take it as a sign of momentum. nt

[mohc]

18. Awesome

With ARG's typical error range this could be anything from a 26 point Obama lead to a 14 point Clinton lead, but one thing is for certain....someone is leading!!

[Independent-Voter]

25. True - ARG has been all over the place. SurveyUSA has been far more on top of things

[Arugula Latte]

19. Good news if accurate.

Hope it is!

[zulchzulu]

26. Bookmark this: Obama will win Texas by a whoppin' 10% on March 4

I'll even go so far as to say he will win Ohio by at least 5%.

The pedal is to the metal.

[Tatiana]

28. He is likely down by 5 or so. n/t

[Renew Deal]

29. ARG is never favorable to Obama

So either he has a huge lead or this is a mistake.

[book_worm]

30. I'm an Obama supporter, but I don't quite trust ARG, I hope they are right.

[WolverineDG]

32. Undecided 7%

what's the MOE? Either &/or both could swing it for either candidate.

dg

[Occam Bandage]

33. ARG sucks. I'll wait for an actual poll, thanks.

[goodhue]

34. yes we can

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. And Rasmussen has different numbers

Clinton 54% Obama 38%
(I suggest reading the rest before reacting to this.)

However, just 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in Texas say they have made up their mind and are certain about their vote. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided, 5% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and 16% say they might change their mind.

Overall, 78% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 67% say the same about Obama. Among voters who are currently undecided, 59% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 48% offer a positive assessment of Obama.

Eighty-two percent (82%) believe Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe Obama would have a chance to win in November. Among those who are undecided, 53% believe Clinton would have a chance to defeat the Republicans and 50% say the same about Obama.

Clinton currently leads among both White and Latino voters. Obama leads among African-American voters.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of all Democratic Primary voters view the economy as the top voting issue of Election 2008. Nineteen percent (19%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 17% view Health Care as the top priority. In many states, Obama has the advantage over Clinton among voters focused on the War in Iraq. That is not the case in Texas. In fact, regardless of which issue voters consider most important, Clinton has the advantage at the moment.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

Then there's this recent poll of 400 Democratic primary voters:

Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama 49% to 41% among Democratic primary voters, with 8% undecided at this time.

• Clinton also enjoys a slight edge in the image ratings. Three-quarters (75%) of Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of her (48% strongly favorable), and 23% unfavorable; while 71% have a favorable image of Obama (41% strongly favorable), and 24% unfavorable.

• Those who plan on voting early are tilting towards Obama (46% to 42%) while Clinton leads 51% to 40% among voters who are waiting until Election Day to cast their vote.

• Clinton's coalition is comprised of Hispanics, women, and strong Democrats, while Obama's support is coming primarily from African Americans, independents, men, and higher income households. Strength groups for each candidate include:

Clinton Obama
Total 49% Total 41%
Hispanics 63% African Americans 65%
Women age 55+ 60% Independents 61%
White women 59% Men w/degree 57%
Voters w/high school or less education 59% Voters $100K+ income 56%
Age 65+ 58% Men 53%
Women 57% Age 18-54 52%
Households <$50K income 57% White men 50%
Strong Democrats 54% Voters w/college degree 49%

• Clinton also enjoys majority support in the South (57%) and Western (61%) regions of the state, and edges ahead in the Eastern part of the state 46% to 40%. Obama is beating Clinton 53% to 32% in the Central region and leads 49% to 44% in the Houston area. The Dallas Fort-Worth region is tied within margin of error (Clinton 42%, Obama 41%).

• Among the national issues that are most important to Democratic primary voters Clinton handily wins those concerned with the economy and jobs 54% to 32%, and voters concerned about Iraq 51% to 44%. But among those voters who care most about health care, Obama leads Clinton 53% to 43%.

• Democratic primary voters seem to view these candidates as a choice between experience and change. Four-in-ten (40%) Clinton voters say the reason they are supporting her is because she has the right experience, while among Obama voters 43% say they support him because he can bring about the needed change.
http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

Here's what I've gleaned from all of this.

They're both popular with Texas Democrats and there's no telling how things will turn out in the end since they're really just now beginning the courting process of voters here.

In the end all those 'could change their choice' and 'not sure yet' make these polls unstable at best.

Be patient and see how things are shaping up after the debate.

Just my opinion.

[TexasObserver]

42. Rasmussen (1) is a Republican asset (2) has been known to try to skew races with his "results" ...

... and (3) uses methodologies that tend to overstate older voters who have landlines, are home all the time, answer the phone without screening, and will respond to anyone who has a poll they want taken.

I do not put much store in his work, ever, except to compare it to his other results. Most pollsters' results are most useful to view THEIR perception of the trends. Even then, the results can vary wildly, depending on what days they survey.

We'll see which pollsters are right, but never forget that Scott Rasmussen jumps when the RNC says FROG, and without their favor, his business would dry up overnight.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

48. I wasn't putting any real stock in the Rasmussen poll

I just used it as an example of how varied the polling coming in is at the moment. My belief is that no matter what the polling shows never let your guard down and keep working as if there's a 30% gap.

"We'll see which pollsters are right."

Since between them all they're covering the whole spectrum of possibilities with their polling results one of them is bound to hit pay dirt. :D

[TexasObserver]

67. I agree wholeheartedly with your comments.

Some of my comments aren't really directed at the person to whom I reply, but to a wider audience reading, perhaps in silence.

I don't trust ANY pollsters, not ARG, not Gallup, not Zogby, not Quinnepac, not any of them. This is their harvest, from January through October, every four years. They are making hay while the sun shines, and I don't blame them, but they are all businesses, and they all use this to make money and extend their own brand name.

If you put them all together, remove the outliers, and plot them on a graph over time, they do show trends usefully, but not necessarily accurately.

I think ARG hit this one right, and I think others will likely follow if they refine their polling methodologies. Most of them focus only on the popular vote, don't understand or try to apply the rules which control the Texas delegate allocations, and don't do a very good job of identifying likely voters in a year like this one.

[nickn777]

63. but Rasmussen also has Obama up 8 nationally....

If you're up 8 nationally, how can you be down 17 in Texas, 15 in Penn., and 16 in Texas....?

Not really possible.

So ARG poll is showing that there is a great deal of uncertainty out there.....lots of people changing their mind, or unsure as to how they will vote.

[TexasObserver]

36. Exactly what I've been saying repeatedly the past week and catching holy hell for it.

Yes, Obama is ahead in Texas NOW and he's going to win Texas!!

And ARG has low balled Obama repeatedly.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

37. Wildly desperate polls suggest flux...

and difficulties in measuring.

One could argue that favors Obama.

[RedEarth]

39. Obamanos!....... get onboard Texans!!!

[BeyondGeography]

49. Obamanos...that's very good

:thumbsup:

[Tarc]

40. Obama taking a 8-point TX lead is a true fairy tale

Rasmussen is a bit more reliable and consistent

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

[GalleryGod]

41. Let's Ride, Gang!

[my3boyz]

44. Don't believe it Obama supporters!!!!!!!!! Keep working! GOTV!!!!

I will make calls from VA!!! Please GOTV! Remember New Hampshire!

[DemGa]

46. So it's a race preference AND sexism?

Quite a combo for Obamo.

[City Lights]

50. When has ARG been right?

They have one of the worst records out there.

[NJSecularist]

51. This is why I love Survey USA and hate the rest

Who only surveys 400 people and makes it a serious survey? SurveyUSA always serves 700+ and gives us a more accurate picture.

[Independent-Voter]

54. To be fair, its not the number sampled, its more of how they pull the sample together that's

important.

[loveangelc]

53. BOOOOOOO AT ARG (though they did get MO right somehow)

thankfully ARG and Rasmussen are almost evenly unreliable, so Clinton's probably not up that much like that Rasmussen poll shows.

[PresidentObama]

56. ARG isn't reliable.

[loveangelc]

57. Clinton only winning 2% more of the latino vote seems strange...

[JackORoses]

59. not if you look at New Mexico and Virginia

then it makes sense.

Hispanics are not the same all over, despite what Hillary would have you believe.

[Mass]

60. ARG has been consistently wrong this year, but the trend is going in the right direction.

I would look at SurveyUSA.

[ShadowLiberal]

61. Ok.... that's like a 25 to 30% gap between all the most recent polls

Ok, that's really different from what other polls from Texas recently are showing, I've seen her with as much as a 19 point lead over Obama, and here Obama is up by 6?!?

This just shows why polling has become highly unreliable lately in the primaries.

[Jersey Devil]

62. None of today's polls matter because 3 weeks in politics is an eternity

Let's wait until we get closer to the actual votes to get excited about any polls. Right now all they can show is trends and to do that you have to have 2 or 3 of them back to back during actual campaigning which has only just begun in Texas and Ohio.

[Eurobabe]

64. w00t!!!

[loveangelc]

65. does clinton have a lot of tx establishment behind her?

[ariesgem]

66. Good News!

Yes we can Texans!

[Scurrilous]

68. K & R

:thumbsup:

[nomorewhopper]

69. here's a graph that shows some trends from all the polls

all the recent polls are referenced in this poll, (including the OP's poll and the rasmussan one showing the clinton lead) which uses many polls to plot trends