ARG Poll is more accurate on TX - Rasmussen doesnt sample independents.

[Thepricebreaker]

Though I do trust a lot of what Rasmussen does - there is critical flaw in the daily tracking polls for Texas.

Rasmussen does not sample independents which WILL vote in the Texas primary.

ARG has Independents going for Obama 3 to 1. Thats why the gap has closed.

Your fooling yourself if you think Democrat only polls mean anything in an semi-open Primary.


Clinton 54% - Obama 38% without independent voters.

Clinton 42% - Obama 48% with independent voters.


There is no mention of independent voters in the Rasmussen the poll breakdown.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

1. It drives me crazy when polls only sample Democrats in open primary states

When we know independents are turning out in droves.

[Thrill]

2. Is this why she has cut and run from Texas?

[Thepricebreaker]

3. Who said that? wow talk about putting words in peoples mouths.

[jsamuel]

4. rasmussen samples independents too

Democratic Primary Voters means

voters in the Democratic Primary

not

primary voters who are democratic

[Thepricebreaker]

5. Wrong - it says Democrats.. there are zero mention of independent voters in the whole artical.

Or in the breakdown.

[rinsd]

8. It does not say Democrats. Its says Likely Democratic Primary Voters"

[Renew Deal]

6. 54-38 is identical to rasmussen.

:shrug:

[rinsd]

7. Rasmussen makes you pay for crosstabs but he says likely Democratic Primary Voters

[Tarc]

9. A bit of wishful thinking there

Texas is a lot more complicated than many think, and any poll that suddenly puts Obama up by any amount after being consistently down s seriously suspect.

For anyone that wants a deeper read into Texas' pseudo-primary/caucus hybrid monster, start here and follow the links from that article which go further in-depth;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/13/texas-primary-primer_n_86445.html