New ARG Texas Poll Shows Obama Ahead (48% to 42%)

[Khaotic]

AmericanThinker, February 15, 2008
New Texas Poll Shows Obama ahead
Rick Moran
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/02/new_texas_poll_shows_obama_ahe.html

In a state that Hillary Clinton desperately needs to stay in the race, an ARG poll released today shows an Obama lead in Texas.

Democrats TX

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

The details are shocking:

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
A close Latino vote will doom Hillary's chances. And if Obama gets 71% of independents, it will be very hard for Clinton to overcome that deficit by winning a bare plurality of Democrats.

Of course, this is only one poll and there are still 17 days until the primary - an eternity this campaign season. But the poll reveals that Hillary has a lot of work to do if she is to win Texas and stay alive.

[rinsd]

1. ARG polls stink and this has already been posted.

You may want to edit to save one of your 3 threads a day.

[catgirl]

2. This puts a damper on the fire wall plan

Guess Ohio and PA will be the Hail Mary states.

[PresidentObama]

14. ARG isn't reliable.

[TexasObserver]

3. All of Hillary's firewalls have turned out to be dry forests.

[PresidentObama]

15. And yet again, ARG isn't reliable.

Check Iowa for examples.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. ROTFLMFAO @ARG Polls

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. Thanks. Do you know whether the error is against the gap...

or how they figured it. I.e. is a poll that shows a two percent gap considered in error if it has the gap right but the proportions for each candidate wrong (Does 45%-43% instead of an actual 46%-44% mean that poll is in error?)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Not Sure

But calling a race 45-43 that ends up 46-44 is a nice job...

[NJSecularist]

7. Weren't you the same person who was quoting Rasmussen?

Rasmussen has company with ARG in the sewer....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Cite All Polls

But I could poll better than ARG from my cell phone using my Casio calculator for tabulating...

[NJSecularist]

12. Nope, you cite all polls - except for ARG

Which you deem as completely wrong.

Yet Rasmussen is just as bad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Rasmussen Is Nine Out Of Fourteen...

It isn't quite as bad as thirteen out of fourteen...

You're right... ARG is spot on... Obama doesn't need to spend a penny in Texas...

[NJSecularist]

23. Only 1 point difference in the error margin

keep splitting straws, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I'm Not Splitting Anything ,Sweetheart

I have alrerady established they are a God awful pollster...

[NJSecularist]

26. Same thing with Rasmussen too?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Rasmussen Is Erratic... ARG Is Consistently And Spectacularly Bad

Plus, I am the one who calls Rasmussen, Republimussen for his Republican bias so I don't know why you are asking me to defend him...

There are four TX polls out now-IVR, Tex Credit Union ARG and Rasmussen...If you want to believe that the only poll that has Obama ahead is correct please be my guest...


Back to where we began...Nothing to see here...ARG is the most accurate pollster... Obama's an idiot if he spends a dime there... Dick Bennett says he has it in the bag...

[rinsd]

31. DSB has been referring to them as Republi-mussen for months.

What does that tell you?

[rinsd]

20. ARG has slipped even further down, now they are 21st out of 41

[Drunken Irishman]

22. And Rassmussen is only 2 spots ahead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. What's The Point Of This Debate

They suck as a pollster... They are thirteenth out of fourteenth...


An NBA roster has fifteen players... If you were the fourteenth best it's improbable you would ever get to play...


Here's a peer reviwed ranking...ARG and ZOGBY are respectively fifteenth and sixteenth , out of sixteen pollsters:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

[Drunken Irishman]

37. I agree, just pointing out Rasmussen has issues, as well.

I don't trust either ARG or Rasmussen.

[MoonRiver]

55. Even lower than Zogby!

:wow:


Thanks for that chart. I've often wondered if anybody actually rates these jokers.

[snappyturtle]

6. K&R I live in Kerr County, north of

San Antonio and west of Austin, and the people I talk with are for Obama.

This is the first Texas election I've voted in and I'd love to see TX go Democratic in the GE. Go DEMS!!! :woohoo:

[TexasObserver]

13. Let's go to Luckenbach, Texas, with Willie and Waylon and the Boys

You're 30-40 miles west of Luckenbach. The Kerrville/Fredrickburg/Luckenbach part of Texas kicks so much ass! I have many favorite parts of Texas, and that region is one of them. Some really great old houses there built by German immigrants.

Not surprised Obama is doing well there.

If this is your first election ever, you know not know my lyrical reference, however. It's a song Waylan Jennings and Willie Nelson made 30 years ago, which put Luckenbach on the map.

(For readers unfamiliar, it's pronounced "Loo-kin-bach")

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

16. The rest of the lyric is appropriate...

This successful life we're livin'
has got us feuding like the Hatfields and McCoys

Yeesh.

[TexasObserver]

27. ... and blue eyes crying in the rain ...

Great little tune. I was living in Austin, hanging with the homies at Scholz Garden back then.

[snappyturtle]

33. My husband is a native Texan born in Austin and plays the guitar!

Love Willie....and I know the song! We still hear it a lot! My hubbie is a builder and looks even better than Sen. Obama in his cowboy hat! He used to live in the big house next door to the one Rove owns, lists as his TX residence between Ingram and Hunt, whatever, five miles from here on the Guadalupe River. HISS! We live just outside of Ingram. I'm keeping my eyes open for the snake everytime I'm out.

We're really ready to see Texas return to the Democratic party.

edit: an addition not that anyone will be particularly interested but my mother-in-law's family homesteaded and named Bull Creek off of FM2222. His great, great grandfather fought the Apaches...he was a Texan Ranger and my claim to Texas is that I had two relatives die at the Alamo even though I was born and raised in IN. We love Texas! Hope * lands somewhere else, Paraquay, after he limps away from the WH!

[TexasObserver]

47. Texas, Our Texas, all hail the mighty State.

As a UT grad, I love the fact that the country and half of Texas thinks the UT song, THE EYES OF TEXAS, is the State Song, and it drives the Aggies crazy!! Suffer, Aggies, Suffer!!

The State song is the one in my Subject line.

My great grandmother WAS a Comanche, and boy, did my grandpa (born 1891) look like it!

Bush is a fraud, even as a Texan. Ranch? A few hundred acres with some scrub brush ain't a ranch. A ranch has horses, and Little George is terrified of horses. That's why you never see one near him.

[snappyturtle]

60. I hope I wasn't offensive....

actually, his mother's family has Native American ancestry....

David, my husband, is infuriated every time bush is referred to as a Texan. David calls him a carpetbagger! We agree that ranch of his is not a real ranch. We have real ranches out here and the difference is very apparent. Did you ever see that Jib Jab video about gwb and his well known horse paranoia? It was hilarious!

Yes, all hail the mighty state! Here's hoping for a record turn out of Democrats on the 4th!

[Johnny__Motown]

8. This looks like a pretty bad poll and I am an Obama supporter..BUT.....

with the way delegates are apportioned in Texas the Latino vote won't have as much weight as it would under other systems.

They use turnout from the last election to allocate delegates to a district. Latino districts have had low turnout so they don't have many delegates.


This is another state where Hillary could win the popular vote and still split the delegates evenly, or even lose out on delegates.


Also it is a strange 2 step system where a caucus is held at night after the primary vote. I honestly don't understand exactly how this works but some talking heads are saying that this may help Barack.



Most other polls have Hillary up by 8-10 %. We will need to look again in a week or so to see if there is any change. Then again a couple days after the debate. We shall see.

[TexasObserver]

21. I can help you out a little on one question you raised.

You wrote:

"Also it is a strange 2 step system where a caucus is held at night after the primary vote. I honestly don't understand exactly how this works but some talking heads are saying that this may help Barack."

There are 126 delegates who will be picked based upon the votes in each of the 31 Texas State Senatorial districts. The formula is already in place for how many delegates each district gets.

The attendees of the caucuses after the primary election are about WHO among the candidate's delegates get to go to the convention in June. In reality, this is not a big deal, because the rules state fairly clearly that the delegates to be chosen in June at the state convention (the additional 67 delegates) are to be chosen proportionally based upon the March 4th results. Because Obama is expected to win some districts bigger than Hillary will win her districts, the split of delegates between Obama and Hillary will be virtually even in many of the districts she wins, but in some of the districts he wins, he'll get more than a split, he'll get extra delegates. At the convention in June, this will give him an edge, or is expected to do so.

Here is the exact language for those 67 delegates:

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: Tier 3. State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.

•67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.

[Johnny__Motown]

38. Thanks, that helped clear things up a bit

[damntexdem]

11. Either candidate would need a landslide to really come out ahead in delegates.

Yes, a narrow win would give bragging rights; but HRC needs more than that. In fact, a close primary is a win for Obama.

[TexasObserver]

24. You are CORRECT! Of the initial 126 delegates chosen March 4th, it might be 70-56 split.

It's possible Obama could really get rolling and take more, but it is very, very unlikely Hillary can pick up more than a net gain of 10-20 delegates even if she does win the popular vote, which she won't.

[loveangelc]

35. I hope you're right about the popular vote.

im hoping students in austin actually DO vote...

[TexasObserver]

43. Spring break doesn't start at UT until March 10th. They'll vote.

UT will vote for Obama big time, and so will much of Austin, both inside the 40 acres and out. He will win BIG there.

[Tom Joad]

17. 18 days until the end of the Clinton campaign, whooo hooooo!!

an election that will be bush/clinton-free.... thank god, thank god... thank god almighty!!

[Tom Joad]

18. it should be noted that some have suggested even if this is a close win

for hillary, it still means her campaign is in deep trouble.
Remember, obama has been winning state after state with margins of 20% or more.

[smalll]

28. Leaving aside the outlier quality of this poll, just look at that party breakdown --

Even this poll that is the ONLY one that puts the O-man ahead in Texas tells us that Hillary Clinton LEADS among Democrats - 47% to 42%. But Obama leads Clinton among independents and Republicans -- he's at 71% while she's at 24%!

Anyone else getting pissed off about the fact that it's not Democrats who are foisting Obama on us? It's a bunch of "independents," Republicans, and young people who've never voted before. And half the time it's these non-Democrats showing up at all the sudden caucuses we're having in North Dakutah and Hither Montidaho.

If Democrats, and ONLY Democrats, picked the nominee, it would be Hillary.

[jenmito]

32. What's your problem with "young people who've never voted before"???

Isn't it a GOOD thing that Obama inspires young people to vote? Isn't that what Howard Dean was counting on?

And I'M not angry that MANY groups are for Obama. He will truly unite this country.

[WolverineDG]

45. Haven't you heard?

Hope is bad. Inspiring young people in 2008 (but not 1972) is bad. Getting people across all divides inspired to make change is bad. :sarcasm:

The latest meme from my Clinton friends is that he's too young, hasn't done enough to deserve to be President, he can run another time when he's older. I'm sorry, how old was Bill when he ran in 1992? Oh wait, that's different. :eyes:

dg

[jenmito]

46. Yup, I've heard all that...

not to mention people seem to forget BILL Clinton saying he came from a place called "Hope," and he ALSO said experience isn't worth anything if it's not the right kind of experience. Clinton supporters are hypocrites.

[WolverineDG]

53. Oh, I got a new one

You're gonna love this one. It goes along with Sen. Obama being young enough to run later when he's older. If Senator Clinton doesn't win this time, she won't ever be able to run again because she'll be too old. :wow: Oh wait, here's another: And if she doesn't win, a woman will NEVER be elected President.

dg

[jenmito]

57. Yeah...

"It's her turn." "Obama should wait 8 years." "95-year-old women have lived all their lives for the opportunity to vote for a woman." Blah blah blah...

[WolverineDG]

58. OMG

I got that last one too! They really are sending out memes!! :rofl:

dg

[jenmito]

59. Yup...

and none of 'em are sticking!

[loveangelc]

34. "and young people who have never voted before"

you get the award for most stupid post of the day!

[NMMatt]

36. Not upset at all

Look at the mess the old Democrats have made of our party.

[high density]

41. There aren't enough independents to generate these 2:1 wins for Obama

The votes of Democrats are certainly involved in helping him win, despite your feelings on the matter. If he appeals to independents or Republicans, this should be considered a good thing. We Democrats need the votes if we're going to win in November. Playing to "the base" like what went on 2004 may work for the Republicans and their fear campaigns, but it's a losing situation for the Democrats.

[TexasObserver]

49. Our State party has been taking a beating since 1994, and we need to pull the middle in.

For the past 14 years in Texas, we've been getting slaughtered across the state, across the board. We desperately, desperately need a presidential candidate who will pull into the party all those indies who are ripe for the picking after 7 years of Bush disasters.

[TexasObserver]

44. It's a phony argument. When they vote for a Democrat, they are a Democrat.

Many will be first time voters. Don't expect them to vote for their grandmother. They are the new lifeblood of the party, and if all we have are Hillary's tired and aging voters, we're done as presidential party, and we'll never bring in the next generation of Democrats.

[BringBigDogBack]

39. Been saying that Obama will take my home state

for months.

Texas is Obama country.

[BringBigDogBack]

40. And if this holds...

the CLinton campaign is finished.

[jenmito]

42. ARG polls are always skewed towards Hillary. I believe this means Obama's way farther ahead than

this poll suggests!

[TexasObserver]

48. I wasn't going to say, but I'm glad you did!!

Twice in the early going, ARG announced ridiculous leads for Hillary just before the next caucus or primary. One was Iowa, where they missed it by 20 points.

[jenmito]

50. I'm always happy to say things others don't/won't!

Yup! :hi:

[loveangelc]

51. yeah bu it showed her up a lot in NH (like everyone else).

[intaglio]

52. Will someone please comfort Hillary's supporters

they need her to be inevitable and if she isn't they will hold their breath until they turn blue

[AtomicKitten]

54. Whoosh goes the firewall, up in smoke.

[Guaranteed]

56. Psssh. Texas doesn't matter. nt

[Occam Bandage]

61. I'll wait until I see a non-ARG poll, thanks. ARG is garbage.