WSJ: Obama-McCain race could redraw electoral map

[book_worm]

In recent presidential elections, the electoral map largely has been fixed, with certain regions predictably loyal to one party or another and the competition narrowed to fewer than 20 battleground states.

But Barack Obama's success in rallying African-Americans and John McCain's difficulty with conservative evangelicals raise an intriguing question: Would a general election between the two put additional states -- particularly in the South -- into play?


Mr. Obama is still locked in a race with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. A general election between her and Mr. McCain could also draw lines in new ways, given Mrs. Clinton's strong appeal to women and Hispanics.

If Mr. Obama wins the nomination, it is far from certain that he could claim even a single Southern state. But even making the race there competitive would be a victory of sorts by forcing Mr. McCain to spend time and money defending states that other Republicans, including President Bush, were able to take for granted.

"It's certainly likely some of these Southern states are going to be much more competitive than before," said Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics at Emory University.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to make inroads in the South was Bill Clinton. Together with Al Gore, he picked up their home states of Arkansas and Tennessee, plus Kentucky, Louisiana and, in 1992 only, Georgia. But Mr. Gore running in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were shut out.

This year, political strategists say Virginia, which already is trending Democratic, could be pushed across the line. Other possibilities include North Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Mr. Obama himself made the claim back in August. "I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," he told a voter in New Hampshire who was skeptical of his general-election appeal. At that time, he predicted that black voter turnout would balloon by at least 30% nationwide if he won the presidential nomination.

The Democratic primaries to date offer evidence to support the claim. Overall Democratic participation in primaries to date has shattered

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[Freida5]

1. Would likely turn California, New York, New Jersey and PA Red

Not the redraw I want.

[book_worm]

2. Obama would carry the same deep blue states that HRC won

[Vinca]

3. Do you honestly think Democrats will vote for a war enabler?

There's more at stake this time around and Grandpa McBush plans to keep the bombs dropping. Run an ad with "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" a few times and see how fast states turn blue.

[Freida5]

7. Nothing surprises me about the American electorate. It elected Bush and appears ready to elect BO

[Warren DeMontague]

9. Bitter much?

On policy matters, Hillary and Obama are very close to each other. Any real Democrat should be ecstatic to support EITHER in the General.

We have a primary, someone wins that primary process. That's what happens. Then the party gets together and SUPPORTS OUR NOMINEE.

That's how this works.

[JimGinPA]

4. Thank You!

I needed a laugh! Stupidity knows no bounds.

:rofl:

[Arugula Latte]

8. I seriously thought that was a joke post ...

...until I looked at who posted it.

:rofl:

[Warren DeMontague]

6. Let me guess, you don't live in California.

Because as a resident, I can state that you have absolutely ZERO fucking clue as to what you're talking about.

[COFoothills]

10. You can't be serious

No way CA or NJ flip. PA is a possibility but I doubt that one too.

But a bunch of 2004 red states will be in play to flip to our side. All we need to do is keep our states...either of our options should be able to do that...and then flip a couple of others and I think Obama is far better situated to meet that challenge.

And what isn't even considered is places where we likely have little chance of winning, but can do well enough to force the repubs to invest money and time there to make sure they hold them...southern states in particular. Every dollar and every minute they have to spend shoring up the base down south is one less dollar and one less minute they have for place where we can beat them.

[NJSecularist]

11. Yeah, ok...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Obama is not losing California, NY and NJ.

[Guava Jelly]

12. I respectfully disagree.

.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. Yet Clinton's only hope is Texas.

Oh those wonderful little ironies.

[Chovexani]

19. LOL

I think you need to go back and take remedial Poli Sci if you think NY would ever go red.

Obama could proclaim himself the Antichrist and sacrifice virgins in Times Square, and NY would vote for him because he's a D.

[Blue-Jay]

23. Nominated for a DUMZie!

[Thrill]

5. Only one I see winning is VA. I think Obama would keep all Blue states but add

Iowa, VA, NV, MO, and COL. But he his view on gun support may bring WV back blue

[COFoothills]

13. Add to your list...

You listed Iowa, Virgina, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado..

Add to your list the following...


Very likely pickups

New Mexico - Will go blue this time
Ohio - A safer bet than some of your others to flip

Possible/In-play

Florida - with either candidate
West Virginia - with Obama
Kentucky - with Obama
Tennessee - with Obama
Arkansas - with either candidate
Louisiana - with Obama
North Carolina - with Obama

And then the landslide is on.

[Zynx]

18. I really don't see how Kentucky, with a much smaller AA population than the rest of the South

and that voted for Bush by 20 points would be in play.

[BlueManDude]

15. I think McCain can win NH, ME, PA and NJ.

[Thrill]

16. Not a chance in hell that warmonger would win NJ

NONE

[stellanoir]

21. EVM's

just saying

[NJSecularist]

20. I live in NJ

And there is no way McCain is winning NJ.

[MagsDem]

17. "I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political m

One thing we know about Obama -- he is sure he is god's gift to all of us. Politicians have enormous egos, but his is just completely unbelieveable. I'd say it dwarfs even Bush's ego.

[NJSecularist]

22. He can do more redrawing of the political map than Hillary, that's for sure

[psychopomp]

24. This is the contest we are going to see

and I am very excited to see a win that will herald a sea change in American politics.