Senator Clinton can NOT win the democratic nomination mathematically

[Tropics_Dude83]

I just did some number crunching for fun. According to Wikipedia, she has 984 pledged delegates right now. 2,025 are needed to win and 2,208 or so are needed counting Florida and Michigan. I had no idea she had so few pledged delegates. There are just 1,074 pledged delegates left to be won in the primaries still to come. She would need to win 1,035 to 1,040 out of 1,074 pledged delegates remaining to get to the 2,025 number. And she certainly can't seat Florida and Michigan and say "see I got to 2,025 that way" because the majority would then be 2,208.

Senator Obama has like 1121 pledged delegates.

Right now she has 233 pledged super delegates with only 333 super delegates who have not declared who they intend to vote for. So, it gets very difficult to see how she can win even in that circumstance. Best case scenario for her she gets up to like 1,900 with super delegates added.

The math just doesn't add up. Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania don't really matter or change the mathematics much at all. However, Penn is being clever. The media has bought into Ohio and Texas being critical swing states. So, Hillary's only hope is that she has substantial victories in Ohio, Texas and PA. This would then allow her to build momentum and maybe win states that she's not supposed to like Pennsylvania. However, if Ohio and Texas are resistant to the Obama wave right now, why would North Carolina not be resistant to a HRC wave coming off of her PA win?

Furthermore, this "22 states don't matter" Penn meme makes sense now. It is ALL about the Clinton camp's pitch to the superdelegates wherein she states that since she won all of the big states that she should be the nominee.

So, in short, she doesn't have a prayer of winning based on pledged delegates. Her OH, TX and PA strategy doesn't really net her much either in that sense. She's using her big state wins to try to sway the super delegates to sway her. As I said though, even if she wins 61% of the remaining 333 superdelegates, the math still seems awfully tough for her.

Senator Obama is more likely than not going to be our nominee. Even TX, OH and PA can't save her.

[bigtree]

1. I really don't think Obama folks need to show up to vote at all in the upcoming races

Just sit it out and wait for the coronation at the convention. Tropics_Dude83 says it's all wrapped up.

[rodeodance]

3. yup-- horses are getting groomed up.

[jlake]

2. Using your math, Obama can't do it either. Just sayin'

[jackson_dem]

4. If you BELIEVE and HOPE enough there is nothing that is impossible

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. North Carolina looms very large

If she takes, TX, OH, PA and North Carolina, then she's got a shot.

If Obama takes just 1 of those 4, he's the nominee.

North Carolina is Obama's firewall.

[Tropics_Dude83]

5. That's true

The democrats are in quite the mess.

[ExtraGriz]

6. both of them cant....

and thats going to be a huge huge issue....i'm not looking forward to this.

[Johnny__Motown]

8. Nobody ever said TX OH and PA would save her. The point is any of them can doom her.

These are must win states for Clinton

They are NOT must win states for Obama

If he can keep the split to 45 - 55 in all these states he will still be in good shape. If he wins one then Hillary is in serious trouble (not that I am counting her out).



As far as Obama supporters staying home you can dream about it. Everyone wants to place the vote that ends the Clinton era once and for all. I wish it could be me.

[jackson_dem]

9. If Obama loses on Tuesday in Wisconsin the current conventional wisdom is thrown out the window

[NJSecularist]

13. Whether he wins Wisconsin or not has no bearing going forward

Because even if Hillary does win Wisconsin, it will be by a razor thin margin.

[tandem5]

10. are you talking about getting the nomination free and clear of super delegates?

at this point both would probably have to draw upon super delegates to have a shot.

[countmyvote4real]

11. Math aside, It's old school vs. new school.

I want change. I want retribution. I want retroactive accountability.

I don't think either will deliver all of that, but I'll take change.

[jackson_dem]

14. What superior change does Obama offer?

[countmyvote4real]

19. change

Not another dynasty.

[rug]

12. Neither can Obama.

[Tarc]

15. Shh, you'll just confuse the hypocrites

Neither one can realistically wrap it up on pledged delegates alone; this will certainly go to the superdelegates to decide.

The only questions remaining are;

- how much howling the Obamabots will do to push their bogus idea that the supers MUST vote according to how the pledged delegates go

-what to do with Florida and Michigan

[CK_John]

16. The numbers in your 401's and the stock market in Aug will determine the mood of the convention and

the country at that time. I don't believe hope is going to be enough to matter at that time.

When things are in the dumpster, hope can sound condescending, and solutions are what people will want.

Today is not tomorrow.

[Tropics_Dude83]

17. Well...Obama will rock the convention with his speech

I presume if it`s close, he and HRC will both give speeches asking for the convention`s support. I expect Obama to rock in that compartment and perhaps win the nomination that way.

Also, if it`s a truly contested convention and a true toss-up, how will the convention unfold. What will happen on Monday and Tuesday night. I`m so used to each night having a `theme` and a message that it`ll be weird to have an unscripted one.

[CK_John]

18. Tradition is that the candidates are out of sight until after the nominee is selected then they

accept or reject the nomination and ask the delegates to vote to accept his/her VP pick.