WP, E.J. Dionne: How 'Inevitable' Got Outmaneuvered

[DeepModem Mom]

How 'Inevitable' Got Outmaneuvered
By E. J. Dionne Jr.
Friday, February 15, 2008; A21

What happened to Hillary Clinton?

Last fall, she was the "inevitable" nominee whose "machine" would raise scads of cash and push her to an early victory. She demonstrated poise and knowledge in debates, and party leaders lined up behind her, fearful of missing her fast-moving train. But this narrative was flawed from the beginning. Her campaign has suffered from profound organizational failures, small mistakes that took on larger import and miscalculations that have put her in a position where to survive, she must defeat Barack Obama in both Texas and Ohio next month.

The major flaw in the early story line is that there never was a Clinton machine in the sense of a well-populated organization skilled at turning out votes. Clinton campaigns have always been top-down operations focused on message and media. The Clintons have never lived in a world of precinct captains. Obama, by contrast, was shaped by his early work as an organizer for the Industrial Areas Foundation and his political life in Chicago, a place where people still talk about ward committeemen and harbor memories of something that was called "The Organization."

While the Clintonites dispensed large amounts of cash on polling, media and the other accoutrements of a modern campaign, Obama combined postmodern online savvy with old-fashioned organizing. His respect for organization paid off in states that select delegates through caucuses rather than primaries. In the 11 caucus states so far, Obama has won 247 delegates to 128 for Clinton, and the difference between those two numbers is roughly comparable to Obama's overall lead in delegates....

Organizing costs money, and it's now clear that Obama not only spent his cash more shrewdly, he also adapted better to the new world of political fundraising. Obama took Howard Dean's online achievement of 2004 and jumped it forward a couple of generations in size and sophistication. Obama now has a vast pool of small contributors who give him modest amounts over and over, much as churchgoers regularly drop donations onto collection plates. And he has tapped a group of fundraisers well adapted to the new rules that restrict six-figure soft-money gifts....

Then came the large miscalculation in how Bill Clinton should be deployed....

Her larger problem, which she must solve if she is to best Obama in the March 4 primaries, is reflected in her struggle to find a message, a purpose and a voice suited to the disoriented mood in American politics bred by the frustration of the later Bush years....Clinton has offered experience and some well-thought-out policies. That might be enough in a different year. But when it comes to a larger theme, her campaign has been all over the lot....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/14/AR2008021403104_pf.html

[formernaderite]

1. obama understood...ALL politics is local

this is why so many people already feel like they know him as a candidate.

[tishaLA]

12. this relates to the inherent populism of his campaign

I think, that commentators and the punditocracy has only recently noticed. He was always about the community level and the ability to build from the local to the regional to the state to the national. That has been the narrative trajectory of his life and the narrative trajectory of his campaign.

[saltpoint]

2. I've liked Dionne for a long while now and I think he's got this one

exactly right.

[Arugula Latte]

3. Part of her problem is the campaign, yes, but part of it is just her candidacy.

I think she is a smart, capable woman, but for years I've been hearing that she would be our nominee and the prospect just seemed to deflate me. The thought of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton thing was dispiriting, but also her large negatives that could be too hard to overcome in the general, the IWR vote, etc. etc. Some of that stuff was just THERE and had nothing to do with if she lacked grassroots organization in this state or that one.

[JimGinPA]

7. I Disagree Slightly...

"Some of that stuff was just THERE and had nothing to do with if she lacked grassroots organization in this state or that one."

I think if she had had the grassroots organization we might be in a much different place now. She likely would have been "inevitable" and McCain would be the next president.

[Cha]

11. Yes, she's a candidate

built on straw, imo..so I'm thanking our lucky stars they've run their campaign like she ran her senate career.

[K Gardner]

4. E. J. definitely "gets it". So does Obama. K&R

[GoldieAZ49]

5. Her message keeps changing not the kind of change that a campaign needs

from ready on day one, yes she can, to solutions to whatever

The solution is Obama

[thevoiceofreason]

6. Ah, but she's on message now: ATTACK!

Penn with another brilliant move

[DJ13]

8. "...is reflected in her struggle to find a message, a purpose and a voice suited to ..."

"..........and a voice suited to the disoriented mood in American politics bred by the frustration of the later Bush years...."



For the life of me, I will never understand why she didnt run in 2004.

As imperfect a candidate as Kerry was, he came within a few Diebold machines in Ohio of beating Bush.

Hillary would have had the entire party united behind her back then, and would have won far more states than Kerry, so why was Hillary (and Bill) afraid of taking on Bush?

A (small) part of me thinks that as chummy as Bill and Bush Sr. have been the last several years, daddy put some pressure on Bill to keep Hillary from running so Junior could continue playing President.

Oh well, its past now, and instead of the hero of a Democratic Party standing up to Bush and preventing these last 4 years from happening, now we've come to understand she's nothing more than another run of the mill politician that wont put herself on the line if she thinks she cant be guaranteed having a victory handed to her on her own terms.

[scheming daemons]

9. As I said in another thread, people run governments like they run their campaigns....

...which is why we should all be very worried if Hillary somehow steals this nomination.


Obama has run his campaign better than Hillary... and he'd run the government better as well.

[Cha]

10. And, some dismiss(at their own peril) Obama's work

as as state senator and his organizational abilities..

The major flaw in the early story line is that there never was a Clinton machine in the sense of a well-populated organization skilled at turning out votes. Clinton campaigns have always been top-down operations focused on message and media. The Clintons have never lived in a world of precinct captains. Obama, by contrast, was shaped by his early work as an organizer for the Industrial Areas Foundation and his political life in Chicago, a place where people still talk about ward committeemen and harbor memories of something that was called "The Organization."

I still don't understand why hilary is supported by "less affluent" and Obama has the "upscale people". The clintons are the ones who loaned their campaign $5 million from themselves..and are the Washington insider powerhouse elite. Obama was working on the South Side of Chicago as a state senator..how ironic is that?

[frazzled]

13. Hell, yes, people still talk about ward committeemen in Chicago

We had to vote for our ward committeeman on our primary ballot Feb. 5. Being fairly new to Chicago politics and not sure of the personalities, I took the endorsement of our new alderman, whose campaign I worked on, and whom I like very much.

And let me tell you, that alderman's race was more sophisticated in its organization than some presidential campaigns I've worked on. I was bowled over at the amount of organization and training that went on for a city alderman campaign: poll watchers as well as gotv phone bankers had to attend organizational meetings, and the whole election day scenario (including a roving team of lawyers checking out the operations at the precincts--a necessary activity in Chicago!) ran like freaking clockwork.

I kind of knew Obama was going to have a tight ground organization when I read early on about his "Camp Obama" required week-long (or was it more?) training sessions for volunteers.

[Cha]

14. Thanks for that fount of info

on Chicago politics and Camp Obama, frazzled!

[babylonsister]

15. Mom! We have to pick our poison now...posted around

7amCT...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x338273

I'm glad people read this! :thumbsup:

[DeepModem Mom]

16. Sorry -- I didn't think to look there! nt

[babylonsister]

19. Ha! I'm glad you got attention; don't be sorry. nt

[bigtree]

17. more campaign gossip

I like the way he focuses on her slogans at the end of his piece. The lightweight criticisms in this article have obvious retorts from the Clinton campaign, such as the 'convoluted answer' in the debate -- a mistake identical to Obama's own flubbing and hedging on the same question (and answer) at a later debate, all of which was brushed over , unlike the drumming Clinton's response received.

I like this line though . . .

"He (Obama) is less specific about policies than he is in describing the frustrations voters feel . . . "

. . . all hat and no cattle.

[babylonsister]

18. Help here:

Try reading this, about a junior senator:

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/10/barack_obama.html

[bigtree]

20. Oh, he's definitely a senator

a regular pol, like Hillary Clinton. The populist image is a stretch, from that perspective. It's really a struggle to find significant differences between them, which forces folks (and the candidates) to resort to these tortured, biased explanations for whatever divide they're focusing on (or focusing our attention on)

[babylonsister]

21. Blah, blah, blah, bigtree. Who has written anything similar about Clinton?

Please astound me, because you are not. I think it's very telling that Obama just worked and worked for the right reasons instead of to crown himself. Share Clinton's secret history. Is there one, did she ever do anything, like supporting Kerry in 04, that would distract her from her vision? Not that I know of. She tried, but she's yesterday. I'm looking forward to tomorrow.

[TexasObserver]

22. Hillary is not as good a candidate as either Kerry or Gore was.

The ONLY thing she had going was the presumption that all that lobby money and Bill's resume would lift her to the top.

[KittyWampus]

23. 50 state strategy should be the case every election

[CorpGovActivist]

24. .