Obama's Texas Test: Can he dent Clinton's advantage in the Hispanic community?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: Obama's Texas Test
By Dan Balz

AUSTIN -- Barack Obama has gathered valuable momentum over the past 10 days with his string of post-Super Tuesday victories. But he still has yet to prove he can significantly dent Hillary Clinton's solid advantage in the Hispanic community. Texas offers the next great test for his campaign. The Latino community is a critical piece of any Democratic candidate's general election calculations. Against John McCain, who has championed comprehensive immigration reform to his detriment in the Republican primaries, the Democratic nominee will face an opponent who begins the general election with a credible chance of holding a solid minority of the Hispanic vote....

Much has been made about McCain's struggle to gain a greater share of the conservative vote as he has moved closer to wrapping up the Republican nomination. Far less has been made of Obama's continuing struggle to significantly increase his share of the Hispanic vote in his battle against Clinton. Their first test came in Nevada in mid-January, and Clinton carried Hispanics by more than 2 to 1. On Super Tuesday, despite greater efforts by the Obama campaign, Clinton still dominated the Hispanic vote. There were eight states with significant Latino populations, and she had sizable leads in six of them.

In California, despite the energetic efforts of Ted Kennedy, Obama once again lost by an overwhelming margin of roughly 2 to 1. He may have had the Kennedy mantle, but Clinton had the support of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who has been tireless throughout the primary season in his efforts. Even in Obama's home state of Illinois, Obama did little better than a split among Hispanics. He carried Hispanic men, and Clinton carried Hispanic women there. While he won the state by a significant margin, the resistance in the Hispanic community was notable....

Some analysts have blamed Obama's struggle as a black-brown conflict, although the Illinois senator has resisted embracing that idea for obvious reasons. Others rightly point to the fact that Clinton is far better known to the Hispanic community and therefore has built-in advantages that will last throughout the nomination battle....

***

On Friday, the Texas Credit Union League released a poll conducted by the Republican firm of Public Opinion Strategies and the Democratic firm of Hamilton Campaigns. It showed that, overall, Clinton leads Obama in the state by 49 percent to 41 percent. Among Hispanics, she led as she has in other key states by a margin of 2 to 1. Among Hispanic women, the lead was more than 3 to 1....For all his success in the past few weeks, his weakness in the Latino community is an obvious hole in his coalition. The Obama campaign may believe he can wait to address this, but rather than avoiding the problem, he should be trying to figure out how to solve it -- beginning in the Lone Star State.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/02/15/obamas_texas_test_1.html?hpid=topnews

[Bicoastal]

1. Obama IS the son of an immigrant...sorta...

...at any rate, he can speak on being a minorty in a predominantly white world better than Hillary can. I think when he gets to Texas, Obama's going to delve into the travails and personal details of his early life.

Yeah, that's the ticket.

[jackson_dem]

4. He can talk all he wants. Hillary can point to a record

[Hawkeye-X]

5. And the exit polls on other states says otherwise..

Oh and one of the poll question - is "Jackson_Dem" an annoying fucking profile-hiding idiot?

99.9% has already answered YES.

Hawkeye-X

[Bicoastal]

7. Should I be glad I can't see what he posted? nt

[NJSecularist]

14. Yes.

More of the same opinion based analysis he tries to report as facts.

[jackson_dem]

20. Yes, preventing cognitive dissonance is vital for a cultist

[jackson_dem]

19. Which states?

You flyspeck a few states where Obama romped and ignore the national picture, especially in the states where there is a substantial Latino population. Post the exit polls. I actually look at them and know how poorly he is doing nationally with Latinos and how he loses white voters in almost every state.

What do you need from my profile? I like to ski. Happy? That "change" anything?

[jackson_dem]

22. Here's a quick sampling from states with significant Latino populations

The first thing that has to be noted is Obama's numbers are boosted by rethugs and "independents" who prefer him. He does substantially worse with Latino Democrats.

Arizona

Latinos: H 55, O 41

California

Latinos (30%): H 67, O 32

Florida

H 59, O 30

Nevada

H 64, O 26

New Jersey

H 68, O 30

(he also lost the white vote 66-31 here but lost by only 10 overall due to winning blacks 82-14)

[Azathoth]

12. Hillary has a long record of claiming she has a record n/t

[jackson_dem]

21. Latino voters disagree

[musiclawyer]

2. The hispanic community does what the leaders say usually

at least thats the way it is here in CA. Sad but true. Assuming Obama gets the nod, you think they won't vote for him, and rather vote for McCain. Not! This is not even in the top 5 of Obama's problems in the long run.

[Bicoastal]

6. Yeah, but many many DU'ers have noted that the Mexi-American community in Texas

is WAY different that the Mexican community in California.

[musiclawyer]

16. I hope so

Because we Californian's vote pretty stupid. See Arnold. Arnold would not have happened without the brown vote. Weez way behind the curve in thinking for ourselves, but hopefully not for long.

[NJSecularist]

3. He made strides in New Mexico and Arizona

And while that's not an indication of what will happen in Texas, it's a good sign.

He doesn't even need to win the Hispanic vote. He just needs to come close. If he comes within 15-20% of Hillary, I still think he'll win the state if he gets good white and terrific black support.

[NMMatt]

30. Actually, in many ways Texas Latinos compare to NM and AZ more than CA -nt

[1awake]

8. hmm.. i saw a poll that had Obama up by 6 in Texas today..

but then.. polls havent been very accurate to this point. We will see.

[jackson_dem]

23. That was an ARG poll. ARG is a joke

[1awake]

25. Maybe.. I dunno much about them, but it seems like all of them are jokes lately n/t

[grantcart]

34. I don't agree with j/d often but he is right ARG polls are not

credible because they use a call back system where people respond to a computer not polling person to person.

I think the other polls are not going to be accurate in TX because they do not seem to be including many independents.

[TexasObserver]

31. And that will be the trend, except for polls that are badly flawed or part of a marketing scam

[HopeforChange]

9. As a Texan I think that Obama is no longer an unknown name

As this campaign has progressed the name recognition of Clinton I feel will have less and less impact as the Latinp's hear the name Obama.

I went out to a very very large flea market here and I did not see the overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton over Obama. In fact I would say I got more people indicating they were voting for Obama than for Clinton. I definitely think the Lation yout are for Obama.

[Johnny__Motown]

10. I believe Hillary spent time in south texas helping hispanics register to vote, and she went to

collage in Texas (unless I am mistaken, not a Hillary fan)



She has a type of "home field advantage" in Texas. I think she will win but hopefully not by enough to gain many delegates.

[TexasObserver]

32. No, she's loathed in Texas except for Hispanics over 45, whites over 60, blacks over 70.

And her registering voters in 1972? Yes, we all did, except some of us kept doing it election after election since.

I don't know how the meme that Hillary has Texas got started, but it was likely Hillary who started it. She's not popular in Texas, the PR noise notwithstanding.

[thevoiceofreason]

11. Specific Hispanic office in Houston

[KittyWampus]

15. OMG! the voice of reason! I've been waiting for you to show up in this form for ages

:D

[AtomicKitten]

13. He did well in Virginia, so it's possible he'll expand leads in all demographics.

I heard Zogby talk about Clinton's ceiling of support, and I do believe that's precisely what we are seeing play out.

[madrchsod]

17. dumping doyle may hurt her

but i`m not sure if it was a big deal in the hispanic community...

[judaspriestess]

18. I believe El Paso, San Antonio on down to the border towns

will remain with Clinton as they are so heavily Hispanic or Tejano's as we like to call ourselves. Maybe in Austin and Houston I can see Obama being popular there.

[Skwmom]

24. Yet to prove? Then why have I been hearing that Obama

has done VERY WELL with Hispanics in certain states AND does better with young Hispanics. Oh, I forgot, this must be more of the anti-Clinton media b/c the media is ALL anti-Clinton.

I guess it's the old repeat something often enough until enough people believe it game.

[TexasObserver]

29. Obama is winning Hispanics under 30 in Texas, and that's over half of Hispanic voters.

The voting demos in Texas for Hispanics are very unusual, because the younger Hispanics are quite different from their elders, who tend to be awestruck by the Clinton name. This is how it goes, and I'll invite everyone to check the results after the election and see if I'm right.

Hispanics over 45 - big for Hillary

Hispancis under 30 - big for Obama

Hispanics 30 to 45 - split between them

When the dust settles, I expect the Hispanic vote to split, with neither of them getting over 55% of those voters.

[TexasObserver]

26. Texas Credit Union League is a lobby group who hired know politicos to poll

Do journalists ever do their jobs any more, or is any poll immediately worshipped as valid?

As for Texas, Obama will win blacks big time, he'll split whites getting most of the men, and he'll split Hispanics, getting most of the men. Add youth and indies, and it will be Obama for Texas.

They'll split Texas' 31 senatorial districts, but the ones Obama wins will produce more national delegates.

I'll call this latest poll what it is - part of scheme to overstate Hillary's support by the same groups she has long since sold out to. Those polling firms are KNOWN for push polls. Don't believe me? Do some research.

This thing was slapped together to create the story which they are now peddling. Why are journalist and so many readers so ready to believe the same organizations who phony up data to sell cars and other consumer goods?

[woolldog]

27. I sure hope

you're right.

[ErnestoG]

28. Obama got the CA Hispanics.

While Hillary got the Orange county Reaganites.

[DeepModem Mom]

33. Not to be argumentative, but are you sure Obama got Cali Hispanics?

I watched coverage of the California primary locally in L.A. and don't remember it being reported that way. I thought I heard that the Hispanic vote in the state went strongly for Clinton.