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Edited on Sat Feb-16-08 12:12 PM by Bread and Circus
The core of Clinton's message has consisted of two things: inevitibility and competence. The first has obviously been erased in everyones' minds. However, the competence argument has not been sufficiently addressed.
The Clinton campaign continues to push the code messages that support her case as the more competent candidate:
"ready on day one"
"35 years of experience"
"stood up against the withering attacks of the RW machine"
"it takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush"
"my opponent sounds good but lacks substance"
"words are cheap, I will get things done"
All of these are just facets or forward spins of the same argument, and that is that "Clinton is the competent candidate and Obama is not". It suggests that not only would she be a more effective campaigner in the GE but she would also make the better executive.
Considering the most universally accepted argument against Bush is that he is grossly incompetent, this is actually a good tact for Clinton to take.
The problem is that everything about Clinton's campaign suggests that she is very incompetent as a campaigner and as an executive. To start whittling into Clinton's last bastion of support, that is what the Obama campaign needs to make abundantly clear. What's even more interesting is that Clinton's management, despite her rhetoric, is very eerily similar to Bush.
Consider the facts:
1.) Clinton started this race with a massive head start in terms of money, establishment backing, name recognition, and being able to rely vicariously on the record of her husband. However, she has utterly blown that massive lead.
2.) Clinton has led her campaign in a shroud of secrecy and cronyism that is echoes Bush. She allowed a campaign manager to nearly bankrupt her campaign, apparently blinded to that incompetence by the "loyalty factor".
3.) Clinton didn't know that her campaign essentially ran out of money, again what kind of executive can't understand that the income has to be bigger than the outgo? She can't balance her own budget, how could she balance ours?
4.) When Clinton realized she was out of cash, she made a secret contribution to her campaign, unbeknownst to her supporters and even key leaders in her campaign.
5.) All the money issues were witheld from her supporter until after Super Tuesday. This lack of honest disclosure was compounded by the "staff is not getting paid in February, oh wait yes they are" song and dance.
6.) Senator Clinton either gave the green light to her surrogates and her husband on race baiting or she is incapable of controlling the message. Either way, this has hurt her seriously both at the ballot box and with prominent politicians and political analysts. Bill's on and off salacious attacks further show that Clinton is not in complete control of the message.
7.) Moving the "goal posts" constantly. This has been well noted in the press. Which states matter and which don't is a counter-productive meme and has only hurt her. It's also reminiscent of how Bush moves the goal posts in Iraq.
8.) Failing to have a good ground game in a lot of important states, falling behind in pledged delegates because of it.
9.) Funneling massive sums of money to Mark Penn, a know aid to Republican/corporate causes.
10.) Further worsening her image as a divider by trying to pit men vs women and latinos vs blacks.
11.) Being willing to sacrifice the party for her own gain by taking moves to secure the nomination by changing the rules midstream or over-riding the will of the pledged delagates.
12.) She cannot control her staff, who are now at odds with each other.
And the list goes on.
I don't expect the Obama campaign to reiterate each and every point. However, the basic theme supported by the facts is that Clinton has run a horrible campaign from a technical and message standpoint. It's fairly convincing that she would be incompetent to face McCain and incompent to run the country.
Obama is close to winning this but all Clinton has to do is squeek out Wisconsin, OH, and Texas and she is more than back in the game. Clinton is not running to "WIN" the pledged delegates anymore. She is running to make pledged delegates a "virtual tie" (expect to see that more often as we near the end of this). She is also running to rack up as much "popular vote" as possible. At the end she is going to "call home" a lot of political favors.
Nonetheless, she is on the ropes. She is about 1 right cross and an uppercut away from being knocked out. Obama can not let her off the ropes and regain her feet. If he does, it might be curtains for him.
I think he needs to make his knockout by going to the heart of her campaign and making it apparent that under his leadership he has run one of the most disciplined and amazing campaigns in modern history while she has blown the lead of the century.
Maybe Obama is "too nice" I don't know. What has gotten him this far has been keeping things above the belt. However, he doesn't need to go low. A blow to the chin and the temple would suffice.
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