Hype about Obama breaking through with Hillary's firewalls in Virginia seems to be inaccurate

[jackson_dem]

Her two firewalls are Latinos and white working folk. Since February 12th there has been a lot of hype that Obama broke through those. This is based on Obama winning Latinos in Virginia and by the media neglecting to mention this wasn't a new thing. He won Latinos in South Carolina and Georgia too. Maybe he does well with Latinos in rethug states? Either way all three states have small Latino populations so it is hard to read much into them. In the national polls Hillary has always led with Latinos and she romped with them in every state so far which has a significant Latino population. On the heels of Virginia came an ARG poll touted as gospel for showing Obama down only 44-42 with Latinos. However, that looks like an outlier. The two other Texas polls have him losing 63-32 and 68-30. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_so_much_volatility_in_texa.php

The other "breakthrough" is white voters, white working class ones in particular. We can use white non-college voters as a proxy for working folks. This chart also shows Obama has lost the white vote in almost every state, contrary to popular belief. Remember this when Ohio votes. ;)



Virginia was apparently an exception. He didn't do any better in Maryland.

-snip-

Obama's share of non-college whites in Virginia was, as many assumed, higher than in any other state except Illinois, although his performance among this subgroup has been relatively consistent elsewhere. Obama's percentage of non-college whites in Maryland was similar to most of the other states. Also, as some have speculated elsewhere, his percentage of non-college whites was lowest in three Southern states: Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee.

Somewhat surprising -- to me at least -- is the much larger variation across states among college educated white voters. Obama had large double digit leads among college educated white voters in Virginia, Missouri and Illinois but trailed by double digits among college whites in New York, New Jersey and Florida.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/exit_poll_data_education_and_r.php

[Iceburg]

1. Interesting . Obama can't win the GE with those numbers...

Depending on how the pollster defines "College Grad" it could represent as much as 30% or as little as 8% (College Diplomas vs Graduate Degrees).
The fact is the vast majority of Americans (70%) do NOT have a college degree and Obama is losing that crowd by 20 to 30 points.

http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_education.html

[jackson_dem]

2. It should be a cause for concern

It is defined as having a 4 year degree in polls so the 30% figure applies.

For all this hype about Obama "transcending" and "uniting" every section of society he has problems with two major groups, white working folks and Latinos. He especially struggles with the former in the South. The caveat is, though, that these primary voters are Democrats. While they prefer Hillary in the primaries the vast majority will vote for Obama in the general if he is a nominee. The only thing that Obama has to show is that he can retain as many of these votes as Hillary can because we can't afford defections. McCain has strength with the Latino community and could also replicate rethug success with white working folks that began with Reagan. McCain is a huge problem for Obama. Not only for the two reasons I just mentioned but because he takes away Obama's whole "unity"/post-partisanship theme because he, unlike Obama, has an actual record of producing bipartisan results in Washington. He can also go after Obama on ethics too, although he does have the Keating 5 issue but Obama has Rezko so it may be a wash. McCain can also exploit his weakness on the security issue because his strength with the public is being perceived as strong on security. All Obama would have left is Iraq and domestic issues, things Hillary can use too. McCain neutralizes Obama's strengths and can exploit his weaknesses. This is why I went to Hillary after Edwards dropped out. Obama could beat Romney but he doesn't match up well with Hillary.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

19. Of course, you fail to mention that the 70% includes people currently in college

and who are working towards a college degree. You distort the truth in this manner, and in other ways.

In fact, only 48.23% do not have any college education.

[displacedtexan]

3. Both Latinos and Asians prefer Clinton to Obama 2:1.

That's why Obama couldn't win California, even with all of that money he raised.

Not a good sign for Nov. 4th if he's the nominee.

Both of those groups will probably skew toward McCain (who pretends to be sympathetic
toward them).

[Iceburg]

4. So there is NO effin way Obama can win /nt

[Hippo_Tron]

14. And on what basis do you think they will skew toward McLame?

[nonconformist]

15. GLBT voters are breaking 2:1 for Clinton also. nt

[muck17]

5. kick!

[Name removed]

6. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NJSecularist]

7. He won the white vote in Maryland and came within 4 points in Virginia

He has been making strides in Hillary's firewall.

As much as Hillary supporters don't want to hear it. :)

[Donnachaidh]

8. "almost" only counts in horseshoes

came within = Almost. Doesn't COUNT.

[anigbrowl]

9. Dude, your candidate lost in Virginia. Get over it.

Hillary Clinton got hammered last tuesday. Pulling out one demographic slice and saying 'he doesn't beat Clinton with these people!' doesn't mean HC is sure of wins in the remaining contests or provide a whole lot of predictive power for the GE either.

[arewenotdemo]

12. "Hammered" is right.

Twenty-nine points.

[anigbrowl]

10. Duplicate - ignore

[ErnestoG]

11. Yet, a Gallup Poll now shows Obama ahead.

Wait for the Hillars to raise their shriek of despair to near Cyrene levels.

[avrdream]

13. Interesting analysis.

Thanks.

[nonconformist]

16. K & R. nt

[Iceburg]

17. Info to mull over on a Sunday afternoon /nt

[UALRBSofL]

18. I see the statistics but don't you think

the Hillary supporters would crossover vote for Obama? I'm just saying, they should, just to keep McCain out of office. Unless your suggesting this poll is showing voters whom may reconsider Obama for specific reasons.