The bright side of a continuing competitive nomination race

[andym]

A long race keeps the public eye on the candidates far longer than in years when the nomination is wrapped up. Advertising in late primary states helps make people more aware of who the candidates are and what they stand for, which may help them in the general election. Years in which an incumbent runs would be probably not be affected (1996), or possibly have the opposite effect (see 1980), since the public already knows the incumbent and the added criticisms of a nomination process may be counterproductive.



Last 30 years of history (modern primary system) is mixed on this, but if the candidates do not antagonize their opponent's supporters too much, it may be helpful.

long primary seasons (2 wins, 1 loss):
In 1976, the primary season went fairly late, with an anybody but Carter strategy failing. Carter won.
In 1984, Gary Hart posed a strong long-lasting challenge, but Mondale lost badly. (Reagan was a very popular opponent)
In 1992, Jerry Brown posed a late challenge (til early April) to Bill Clinton... Clinton went on to win.

shorter primary seasons (2 losses):
1988, After super Tuesday, Dukakis was the clear front runner. Jesse Jackson ran until the convention to promote his political ideas but was not a serious threat to Dukakis.
2000, Al Gore made quick work of Bill Bradley. He eventually was declared the loser by the Supreme Court in a very close election against a weak opponent.

Incumbents ran in 1980 and 1996:
In 1980, Ted Kennedy posed a strong challenge, but Carter lost. (Incumbent exception)
1996 Clinton won with no serious oppostion. (Incumbent exception).