IF Obama gets the nomination, who do you think will win the general election?

[MoonRiver]

Poll question: IF Obama gets the nomination, who do you think will win the general election?

Please answer honestly. This is a serious question.

[gateley]

1. Obama - that's my honest answer. nt

[Muttocracy]

2. Feb poll data has Obama up about 5 points

(eyeballing their Feb. data, don't scream at me if my math if off)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Clinton/McCain close to a tie

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

Don't know if some of those polls are more reliable than others.

[AndyTiedye]

26. Up 5 Points is "Losing" if You're the Democratic Candidate

The Repiggies have an advantage in the Electoral College that is worth several points in the popular vote, and they still have Diebold.

This is not good enough.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. Obama. McCain will come apart at some point.

[tekisui]

5. He will ride Iraq's cycle of violence into oblivion.

He has tied himself to it. He takes pride and credit for the "situation on the ground". He owns it now, he owns it in the Summer. Let us not forget.

[TheCowsCameHome]

8. Hopefully, sensible Americans will say "Enough" of this Iraq war BS.

This debacle has gone on far too long for most normal people.

[calmblueocean]

35. Yup. Temper explosions + 100 years of war + base that hates him = Obama 4 President.

The stars are aligned against McBush.

[question everything]

4. Depends. If there is some instablity in a foreign land a few weeks before the elections, McCain

Otherwise, Obama.

[saltpoint]

6. Barack Obama, by an extremely convincing percentage.

McCain won't know what hit him.

[berni_mccoy]

7. Obama hasn't even TRIED to take Hillary apart and look at what a train wreck her campaign has become

Imagine hot-headed McCain blowing up because he can't beat the young uppity African American.

[tekisui]

9. Obama has a skill.

With grace, he counter-punches. He responds to every attack without having to dirty his image. It is a feat. I look forward to the grumpy one losing his mind trying to figure it out.

[jackson_dem]

11. The msm did it for him. In the general the msm will turn its guns on him on behalf of the GOP

[MoonRiver]

13. MSM is holding back, maneuvering events to assure he wins.

Then comes the night of the long knives. Guaranteed.

[jackson_dem]

27. Yup. Will we realize it in time?

:scared:

[sniffa]

10. Obama in a landslide

with coat tails in states that used to be written off.

[peoli]

17. I agree, I think at least 45 states.

[K Gardner]

22. Agree.. it will be another historic landslide. No way around it !

[JackORoses]

12. Obama will destroy McCain and his coattails will assure a working Majority in Congress

[Yael]

14. Amidst all of the foot stomping and temper tantrums

from the hard core Hillbots -- Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

[last1standing]

15. McCain.

I'll be voting Dem regardless, but I have a real problem in seeing how either Clinton or Obama beats McCain in the General. His positives are too high, the media loves him and he'll get the complete support of the corporations.

I hope to Hell I'm wrong, of course.

[Neecy]

23. Have you seen him campaign?

I've been watching some of his events, stomach-turning as it is, and he's a terrible campaigner. He has no spark, no energy, he looks tired and confused. I saw him a couple of days ago talking about small business taxes and, apropos of nothing, launched immediately into a rant about 'islamofascist terrorism'. No transition, not even a pause for breath. He appeared senile and bizarre. Either Hillary or Obama could easily take him, although I'm rooting for Obama.

[MadBadger]

25. Obama has higher positives and the media loves him (some would say more than McCain).

[PresidentObama]

16. Obama n/t

[IndianaGreen]

18. Obama will lead a Democratic landslide that will rival 1964

Indiana will turn blue!

[ErnestoG]

19. Polls say Obama.

Hillary would tie McCain.

[nonconformist]

24. Polls said Kerry would trounce Bush at this stage, too. nt

[corkhead]

29. unfortunately all ties go to Diebold.

[BringBigDogBack]

20. One only needs to look at voter turnout.

Obama by a healthy margin.

[nonconformist]

21. McCain, unfortunately. nt

[RiverStone]

28. Ask the same question - but divide it by Hillary...

...supporters and Obama supporters.

I wonder how each group would answer this question differently?

Actually, we already know the answer.

Obama wins!

[Hepburn]

30. Obama is clearly IMO the winner in a McCain versus Obama contest.

This is one of the major reasons I support Obama ~~ since JRE is now out of the race. IMO, in a contest with McCain, Hillary would lose.

JMHO

[GarbagemanLB]

31. Obama, for these reasons:

He can bring in Independents and even some Republicans disgusted with their party.
He can appeal to an enthusiastic and energized youth vote
He is difficult to run attack ads against without them backfiring on his opponent
He leads in all polls against McCain by a better margin than Hillary.
A lot of his primary wins come from RED states, so he could possibly make some inroads into certain states that are on the verge of becoming purple.
Less baggage than Clinton, and less negatives that McCain AND Clinton in polls.
He speaks well of the other side and while Republicans might disagree with him, they would be far less energized to turn out against him than they would be for Hillary.
All indicators show a unenthusiastic and divided GOP base, and Obama has shown he doesn't draw the ire from the conservatives that Hillary does.

In the debates, his youth will be a stark contrast with McCain. Like it or not, appearance does play a factor..just look at the Kennedy/Nixon debate.

[Olney Blue]

32. Failure is not an option.

I will crawl over glass to get our nominee elected.

[noiretextatique]

33. mccain, but by a small margin

some of the professed obama support will magically disappear in the voting booth.

[FlyingSquirrel]

34. 10 Minutes Ago: Obama 46%, McCain 43%. McCain 49%, Clinton 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. McCain’s numbers 51% favorable, 43% unfavorable. Clinton earns positive reviews from 45% of Likely Voters nationwide and less positive assessments from 53%

[kerry-is-my-prez]

36. Depends on what comes out about Obama. There has only been good things so far.

n/t