Obama losing Democratic vote nationally (as well as the white and Latino vote)

jackson_dem

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Sun Feb-17-08 10:42 PM
Original message

Obama losing Democratic vote nationally (as well as the white and Latino vote)

This thread sets the record straight about who is winning the Democratic vote in Democratic primaries. While I was looking at the exit polls I figured I would debunk two other Obama claims. He does well in the voting booth but it is bull that he is winning the Democratic vote, bull that he is winning the white vote, and the record needs to be put on the table about Latinos. Obamites cherry pick a few states where he won the Latino vote to claim he is doing well with Latinos while ignoring the national picture or the results in states where there is a big Latino population.

Keep in mind the white and Latino numbers are for the overall vote. They look better for Obama because rethugs from both groups as well as "independents" (90% of "independents" consistently vote for one party...) prefer him more than Democrats from both groups. We all know rethugs look for the most progressive candidate. Remember all the rethug and "independent" votes for Dean in 2004? Thought so...

If there aren't enough members of a specific group for there to be any exit poll data that explains why they aren't listed for a given state.

Use some common sense and factor in the size of states listed. A 17 point win in New York is not the same as a 28 point win in Idaho.

No entrance poll data available for caucuses except for the two big ones, Iowa and Nevada.

Iowa

Rethugs: O 44, H 10
Democrats: O 32, H 31
Ind: O 41, H 17

New Hampshire

Democrats: H 45, O 34
Ind: O 41, H 31
Whites: H 39, O 36
Overall: H 39, O 37
(rethugs 3% of the vote but not enough to show)

Nevada

Overall: H 51, O 45
Democrats: H 51, O 39
Ind: O 47, H 33

Whites: H 52, O 34
Latinos: H 64, O 26
(rethugs 4% of the vote)

South Carolina

Overall: O 55, H 27
Democrats: O 57, H 28
Rethugs (4%): O 37, H 20
Ind: O 42, H 26

Whites: H 36, O 24 (Edwards 40)
Blacks: O 78, H 19 (Edwards 1)

Alabama

Overall: O 56, H 42
Whites: H 72, O 25
Democrats: O 58, H 40
Rethugs (5%): H 52, O 45
Ind: H 48, O 48

Arizona

Overall: H 51, O 42
Democrats: H 52, O 42
(rethugs 2%)
Ind: O 47, H 37

White: H 53, O 38
Latino: H 55, O 41

Arkansas

Overall: H 70, O 26
Dem: H 74, O 25
Ind: H 56, O 32
(rethugs 4%)

Whites: H 79, O 16

California

Overall: H 52, O 43
Democrats: H 57, O 38
Ind: O 58, H 34
(rethugs 3%)

Latinos: H 67, O 32
Whites: H 46, O 45
Asian: H 71, O 25

Connecticut

Overall: o 51, H 47
Democrats: H 50, O 48
Ind: O 62, H 32
(rethugs 2%)

Whites: H 49, O 48
Latinos: O 53. H 43

Delaware

Overall: O 53, H 43
Democrats: O 54, H 42
Ind: O 50, H 44
(rethugs 1%)

Whites: H 56, O 40

Florida

Overall: H 50, O 33
Democrats: H 52, O 36
Rethugs (4%): O 27, H 23
Ind: H 40, O 30

Whites: H 53, O 23
Latinos: H 59, O 30

Georgia

Overall: O 67, H 31
Dems: O 67, H 32
Inds: O 63, H 33
(rethugs 4%)

Whites: H 53, O 43

Illinois

Overall: O 65, H 33
Dems: O 63, H 36
Ind: O 72, H 22
Rethugs (6%): O 60, H 36

White: O 57, H 41
Latino: O 50, H 49

Louisiana

Overall: O 57, H 36
Democrats: O 57, H 38
Rethugs: O 57, H 17
Ind: O 53, H 36

White: H 53, O 30

Maryland

Overall" O 60, H 37
Dems: 0 59, H 40
Ind: O 62, H 27
(rethugs 3%)

White: H 52, O 42
Latino: H 55, O 45

Massachusetts

Overall: H 56, O 41
Democrats: h 58, O 41
Ind: H 54, O 42
rethugs 2%

White: H 59, O 40
Latino: H 56, O 36

Missouri

Overall: O 49, H 48
Democrats: H 50, O 47
Rethugs (6%): O 75, H 21 Rethugs flip the "Democratic" primary to Obama...
Ind: O 67, H 30

Whites: h 57, O 39

New Jersey

Overall: H 54, O 44
Dems: H 56, O 42
Ind: O 49, H 43
rethugs 3%

White: H 66, O 31
Latino: H 68, O 30

New Mexico

Overall: H 49, O 48 (flip of Missouri. I guess not even rethugs showed up for Obama in this state)
Democrats: H 51, O 47
Ind: O 65, H 29
rethugs 2%

White: O 55, H 43
Latino: H 62, O 36

New York

Overall: H 57, O 40
Democrats: H 60, O 37
Ind: O 55, H 40
rethugs 1%

White: H 59, 0 37
Latino: H 73, 0 26

Oklahoma

Overall: H 55, O 31
Democrats: H 58, O 30
Ind: H 41, O 38
rethugs 7%

White: H 56, 0 29

Tennessee

Overall: H 54, 0 41
Democrats: h 57, O 39
Ind: O 47, H 43

White: H 67, O 26

Utah

Overall: O 57, H 39
Democrats: O 49, H 47
Ind: O 68, H 26
rethugs 5%

Whites: O 55, H 40

Virginia

Overall: O 64, H 35
Democrats: O 62, H 38
Rethugs (7%): O 72, H 23
Ind: O 69, H 30

Whites: O 52, H 47
Latinos: O 54, H 46

Tallies

Overall wins in the states above: H 12, O 12 (with one state we know being flipped for Obama by rethugs. Rethugs, not "independents". RETHUGS)
Democratic wins for the Democratic candidates for the Democratic nominations: H 14, O 10 (four states flipped for Obama by rethugs or "independents")

Whites (including giving Iowa to Obama due to common sense): H 18 (versus Obama. Edwards won this group in SC), O 5
Latinos: H 9, O 3 (includes Illinois for Obama)

To be fair to Obama he won the black vote in every state. His low was 78% in South Carolina. He consistently gets into the 80's, sometimes the high 80's (he reached 97% among black independents in one state). This cannot be ignored since African-Americans are a vital part of our party. However, in the general the black share of the vote will be cut in half. He won't be able to rely on the black vote to flip a 9-3 deficit with Latinos and 18-5 deficit with whites to a 12-12 draw.

Wake up! Why are rethugs and "independents" voting for the allegedly most progressive candidate? If they are so progressive why don't they become Democrats? They are voting for the one who is the most palatable to their centrist, whether center-left or center-RIGHT or right-wing views in the case of rethugs.