"Hillary Turns to Mondale's Playbook to Win the Nomination"

[Coexist]

'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.' George Santayana

from John Campanelli over at kos:

Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 10:50:10 AM EST

Probably the most disturbing similarity between the Mondale campaign and Hillary's is the reliance on super delegates to win the nomination. Check out this 1984 Time article; it's seems like could be written about today's race if you just changed the names:

Mondale's malaise derives from a fact that hit home again last week: Democratic voters refuse to embrace him firmly and finally. He faces the distinct possibility that he may not amass a majority of committed delegates by the end of the primary season on June 5, thus setting off a messy preconvention scramble that could further divide his party. Hart's buoyant mood is understandable too. The Colorado Senator has won four of the last six primaries, including landslides last week in Nebraska and Oregon. The two outdoorsy, overwhelmingly white states were prime Hart territory, and in both he beat Mondale by 59% to 27%, giving him the largest margins racked up in any binding state primary this year. Hart expected to demonstrate his Western power again by winning the Idaho caucuses this week.

Indeed, Hart will probably finish the spring having won most of the primaries and perhaps even a majority of the cumulative popular vote. Yet Mondale still has a wide lead in total delegates (1,564 to 941, as of last Saturday) because of his victories in the big industrial states, his support from the Democratic Establishment and the arcane provisions of delegate-selection rules that his vanguard helped draft two years ago. Even if Hart should sweep the five remaining primaries on June 5, including those in California (306 delegates at stake) and New Jersey (107), his delegate total would still be just about 1,200—well short of the 1,967 needed to nominate. Mondale at the same time would probably have 1,600 delegates who were actually elected as Mondale delegates, and another 200 who have said they support him; he would thus be within 200 votes of nomination. The question would then be whether Mondale, coming out of a sorry primary-season finale, could wheedle and persuade enough uncommitted delegates to make up that shortfall. "I think by the time of the convention, we'll have enough delegates," said Mondale last week, backing away from aides' earlier predictions that he would have the needed majority just after the last primary.

Mondale won just 40.6% of the popular vote and just 13 electoral votes from Minnesota and D.C. - the worst defeat of a Democratic Presidential candidate in American history. Even if Hart got the nomination, he probably would still have lost to Reagan, but polls at the time showed Hart would have performed better. The dynamics of the race are much different now and Hillary is no Walter Mondale. Nevertheless, by relying on heavy-handed old school politics, Hillary is repeating the worst parts of Mondale's campaign in order to win the nomination for herself and is putting in jeopardy a victory for a brand of politics that could very well expand the appeal and effectiveness of the Democratic Party. Hillary sees herself as a warrior against the Republicans. Unfortunately, she may win for herself the battle of the primaries but lose a larger war of helping the Democratic Party and the nation as a whole.

1984: "I think by the time of the convention, we'll have enough delegate" Mondale

2008: “At or about, certainly shortly after, the seventh of June, Hillary’s going to nail down this nomination. She’s going to have a majority of the delegates,” Harold Ickes said, thanks to a combination of pledged delegates awarded through primary and caucus votes, and superdelegates – Democratic elected officials and party leaders who are free to choose any candidate they wish. Ickes is himself a superdelegate.