Barack Obama opens up double digit 13 point lead in Wisconsin-53%-40%%

[Tropics_Dude83]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Wisconsin_Release_021808.pdf

[MadBadger]

1. Obama up 3, Hillary up 1 since the last poll by them.

[SoFlaJet]

3. The Hillbots response in 3-2-1

public polling is an anti-Clinton group who skew their questions against her

[dkf]

2. Ooh. Nice! Thanks for posting.

[Tropics_Dude83]

6. Only up 47-44 in the traditional model though

Still too close to call. Ugh.

[dkf]

14. Obama's GOTV should help.

I'd watch out for dirty tricks from Hillary though...like keeping poll watchers out.

[GarbagemanLB]

4. We all know Wisconsin doesn't matter.

[RiverStone]

12. Maybe your being sarcastic....but if not

All those states that don't matter will give Barack the nomination. :hi:

Guess ya call that mind over matter!

[GarbagemanLB]

15. Oh, it was sarcasm all right. Go Obama!

[Zueda]

5. I don't trust this poll...

Barack is probably a little behind in WI at this point.

[MadBadger]

9. Um...no.

[Zueda]

13. shhh

;)

[MadBadger]

16. Its hard to lower expectations when the only poll to show him losing is ARG

[FlyingSquirrel]

Best way is to do a compilation of recent polls

(AKA tracking) By that method I have him up 48% to 43% for the week of Feb 11-18

If you take out the highest number for each of them in 5 polls, Obama leads 47-41%
If you take out the lowest number for each of them, Obama leads 49% to 44%
If you take out the highest AND lowest, Obama leads 48-42%

Any way you slice it, Obama's ahead in WI by 5-6 points.

[FlyingSquirrel]

51. Best way is to do a compilation of recent polls

(AKA tracking) By that method I have him up 48% to 43% for the week of Feb 11-18

If you take out the highest number for each of them in 5 polls, Obama leads 47-41%
If you take out the lowest number for each of them, Obama leads 49% to 44%
If you take out the highest AND lowest, Obama leads 48-42%

Any way you slice it, Obama's ahead in WI by 5-6 points.

[JimGinPA]

7. Pretty Soon WI Won't Matter Either nt

[MadBadger]

8. War in Iraq and Economy are basically tied when it comes to most important issue

That is good for Obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

10. Meanwhile the Huckster is surging

Go Huckster! He's narrowed Mccain's lead to just 11.

[MadBadger]

11. That probably has a lot to do with more people voting in the Dem Primary

[WilyWondr]

17. Wisconsin Public Radio Straw Poll

They did a straw poll this morning on Wisconsin Public Radio. http://www.wpr.org

The results were not that surprising, but I can say that I was surprised by how many women called in support of Obama. I thought HRC had that demographic sewn up, but maybe not with NPR listeners.

Results:
Obama, 45 votes
Clinton, 25 votes
Huckabee, 3 votes
Paul, 3 votes
McCain, 1 vote
Edwards, 1 vote

[City Lights]

18. What's the track record of this polling outfit? eom

[usregimechange]

19. OMG!

[rodeodance]

20. so, He has gained 2 points from previous poll by this company.

[NJSecularist]

21. Very interesting....

They are projecting black turnout to be at 12%. The 2006 Census tells us that overall blacks consist of 6% of Wisconsin's population. 2004 primary exit poll data for Wisconsin had blacks with 6% turnout four years ago.

But Public Policy Polling is projecting the black turnout to be 12%? That's an awful big leap of faith.... I can't say I agree with them on that.

Regardless, if he gets 50% of the white vote in Wisconsin, he will win the state anyways. But that 12% black turnout figure is a big question mark.

[MadBadger]

23. 6 % is for total population

Since an overwhelming majority of African American's are dems, and its more split with whites, That six percent number is probably greater when just counting dems.

[NJSecularist]

28. But 2004 Wisconsin Democratic primary exit poll data...

only had black turnout at 6%.

As I said, 12% is an awful big leap of faith.

[MadBadger]

30. Question is though, did the primary matter in Wisconsin in 2004.

Thats a very important question. If you add a Black Candidate with a real primary this time, things change.

[NJSecularist]

41. I do not see any evidence of that this primary season

For the most part, black turnout is almost the same as it was in the 2004 primaries.

Missouri, South Carolina, Louisana, I see very little difference in the black turnout from 2004 to 2008.

I'm not buying the 12% turnout number.

[Renew Deal]

26. Also, they say indies will be 20%

They were 29% in 2004.

[MadBadger]

29. yea, but in 2004, did the Wisconsin Primary even matter?

And there wasnt even Republicans to battle for independents with. So how much can we rely on those numbers?

[Renew Deal]

31. Yes, It was Dean's last race.

If Dean won, he would have kept up his campaign. Kerry was polling way ahead with Dean in second. Kerry ended up beating Edwards by 6.

[Tropics_Dude83]

22. PPI nailed South Carolina

Had it as a huge Obama victory a week or two beforehand.

Other than that, they are fairly new. SUSA has a new poll coming out too soon, which will be the king of polls.

[MadBadger]

25. Good Omen Possibly? Obama leads McCain by 10 in their WI GE Poll, and Hillary down 7.

[City Lights]

36. Thanks for the info.

Put me down as cautiously optimistic then. :bounce:

[Renew Deal]

24. Their numbers are screwed up.

They say that 12% of the vote will be black. Last time it was 6%. Also, they say that 20% of the vote is "independent." Last time indies were 29%.

The race might be close to 13%, but not in the way the poll shows.

[NJSecularist]

33. I also do not see where they get the 47-44 number if they use the traditional model

Even if you scale black turnout down to 6% and compensate that with an additional increase in white turnout, if the margins stay the same (50-43 Obama in the white vote), Obama will win the state by double digits....

[MadBadger]

37. They may have weighted the youth vote as well.

[Renew Deal]

39. They did.

You're in Wisconsin. What do you think is going to happen tomorrow?

[MadBadger]

43. I live in Madison, we are a planet of our own

I think we will go to Obama with 60-65 percent. As to the other parts? Milwaukee should also go to Obama because it is 40 percent African American. The other parts of the state are things I have no clue of. But the two major areas should go to Obama.

[NJSecularist]

48. Obama will win Wisconsin if he gets 60-65% in Dane County

Combined with Milwaukee County, if Obama wins those two large counties by those margins, he will win the state.

I don't live in Dane like you do, but that's interesting to hear.

[MadBadger]

54. I dont think hell win Milwaukee County by those margins

I see it more like 53-55 to 44-42

[NJSecularist]

55. It depends upon the white vote

You would think that the black vote would break 75-25 to him. If he only gets 40% of the white vote in Milwaukee, he'll still win the county, but not by those margins. If he splits the white vote with HRC, he'll win the county by 15 points.

I actually think it's going to be tougher for Obama to get +10-15 margins in Dane County than Milwaukee County. Hell, Dane County could even break for Hillary. Who knows. She has spent a good amount of time there.

[MadBadger]

56. Actually, I think hell win the black vote 85-15.

[NJSecularist]

57. If you are right with that 85-15 calculation

He would win Milwaukee County by 20 points and that's only if he tied her in the white vote. If he beat her in the white vote in that county, these margins could be huge. Milwaukee County is massive, it's hard to understate how important a large margin of victory would be for Obama in Milwaukee County. A decisive victory in Milwaukee could help brunt the blow in all these rural counties that Hillary will win.

[MadBadger]

58. I think she takes the white vote, by about 8 points

[MadBadger]

59. What I find interesting, is that I reside in Wisco right now (go to UW-Madison), but I'm from NJ

sounds like we share something in common possibly?

[NJSecularist]

60. I've never been to Wisconsin in my life

But I am from New Jersey. :)

I love studying the demographics of these primary states. It's fascinating. It's one of my biggest hobbies. I've done a lot of research on Wisconsin, I even compiled a spreadsheet with demographic information by county, important landmarks in each county and where each candidate has spent their time in Wisconsin. I even created my own exit poll generator spreadsheet thingy in Excel for Wisconsin's demographics.

Yes, I'm obsessed. :)

[MadBadger]

61. When you said I dont live in Dane county like you do, I assumed you lived somewhere else

My mistake. But yes, Jersey is the same still.

[NJSecularist]

27. I did some additional calculations, and even if black turnout is only 6%

If he wins the white vote by these margins (50-43), he will win the state by double digits according to my projections.

I will be interested to see SurveyUSA's poll tonight (if they have one) to see the projections they have for the white vote.

[dragonlady]

62. I expect the African American vote will be high

In 2004 there was a primary for the congressional district that covers Milwaukee. The turnout was tremendous in the black community to vote for Gwen Moore, the first African American congressional candidate. There were even quite a few spoiled ballots when some voters tried to also vote for the first African American candidate on the Republican side (you have to choose one party or the other, so they had to get another ballot). By the way, they came out in very high numbers in the general election to vote for Kerry, even though Gwen's election was a certainty, and that was what carried Wisconsin for Kerry.

[cottonseed]

32. Nice post. I can't wait until this is over.

The Hillary folks have really been embarrassing themselves this morning. I can't wait until we can get down to the real business of running for president.

[ginnyinWI]

34. And they are ONLY counting likely Dem voters.

Add in a considerable Indie and cross-over Republican vote and you have the makings of a real landslide!

[MadBadger]

38. No, they include both categories.

[Dawgs]

35. 13 points seems high, but I LIKE IT!!!

If he wins by 3 points I'll be happy.

[Yurem2008]

42. But the story of the day is "Plagiarism"

Well, the Hillaryhacks will not like it one bit and her Thighness will dismiss Wisconsin as an "insignificant" state. Obama is clearly winning WI and this should add momentum heading into Texas and Ohio.

[Perky]

40. I suspect that it is a bit of an outlier..but it also may suggest that Hillary loses votes when she

goes negative

[my3boyz]

45. I hope so. I hope the voters see her for the nasty and bitter person that she is. nt

[Jane Austin]

52. If you're really for Obama, you need to go over to his website

and soak up some of his positive message.

He wouldn't have said what you did in a million years, and he and we don't need you to make puerile comments about Senator Clinton.

[Yurem2008]

46. Absolutely right

we are tired of the Clintons and their campaigns of personal destruction. They are yesterday's news, it is time to turn over a new page and bury those self-serving hypocrites (the Clintons) in the pantheon of history.

[Jane Austin]

53. You, too. It's counter-productive and at odds with Obama's

campaign.

Please cut out the gratuitous slams.

[MadBadger]

47. Even if its an Outlier, it suggests that Obama's lead may be gaining

He was up 11 earlier, not its 13. So even if his lead was only seven, that is probably up from five.

[my3boyz]

44. I don't trust those numbers. It would be nice but I suspect it is much closer

Especially with all the negative mailers she sent out. People could see them as "same 'ol politics" or they could get nervous. You never know. Many times negative works in the short-term. I think the Clintons don't care about the gamble because they need a win to gain some momentum. I hope he wins the state though. I hope the independents and former republicans come out to vote to put him over the top. Hill has the benefit of the blue collar workers so hopefully the independents and former Republicans can offset that...

[NJSecularist]

49. As do I...

Public Policy Polling has had a hit and miss record this primary season.

I'll wait for SurveyUSA's findings.

[0007]

50. Go Obama go!