Breaking CNN Texas Poll: C: 50, O: 48, DEAD HEAT!

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

[Arugula Latte]

1. Yowza!

:wow:

[bicentennial_baby]

2. Whoa there.

[scheming daemons]

3. ruh roh, Shaggy......

...

quick... better send Bill into Texas to angrily wag his finger at people in the crowd.... that'll fix it. (tee hee).

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. ROFL!!!!!!!!

ROFL. Best DU line in days!!!

[usregimechange]

75. Hey! You plagiarized Scooby! No scooby snacks for you, bad boy!

[Leopolds Ghost]

107. And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it hadn't been for those darned kids

at UT!

[TwilightGardener]

4. Excellent.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

95. Are you swiping Bill or Ted?

:shrug:

[thesubstanceofdreams]

5. Expected

Because of the way delegate allocation works in TX, Obama stands to pick up some more delegates than Clinton if he keeps it this close.

[tyne]

25. No

That's not was "expected". What was "expected" is that, even though Hillary might win the state, Obama might get more delegates.

Looks like she might not get to use that excuse (as she expected).

[WolverineDG]

45. :sigh:

read here before complaining about the system in Texas. Clinton could have gamed it, instead of assuming the African American & Hispanic votes were hers.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4642375&mesg_id=4642375


dg

[Renew Deal]

6. Aint that a bitch.

:wow:

[PresidentObama]

8. How reliable is the CNN polling? Anyone got the pollster report card handy.

I doubt this is right.

[tekisui]

20. Look around, other polls agree.

Insider Advantage:Feb. 14 HC- 48% BO-41%
ARG:Feb. 14 HC-42% BO-48%

[PresidentObama]

24. ARG isn't reliable, wouldn't cite them.

[Renew Deal]

31. I agree but...

This poll falls in the middle.

[LordJFT]

102. if you look at past polls and the current wisc poll Arg actually tends to favor Clinton

[MadBadger]

30. They are largely untested this polling season

They have focused mainly on National Numbers

[shadowknows69]

36. I'd say CNN polls usually lean toward Clinton

I think this is significant.

[grantcart]

44. The trend is clear

[tridim]

65. That graph is very slide-whistle worthy

Sen Clinton is is serious trouble.

[D23MIURG23]

106. Ouch. n/t

[Alexander]

94. CNN doesn't count. ARG doesn't count. Insider doesn't count. Gallup doesn't count.

:rofl:

[writes3000]

9. Oh boy. I guess this means even more mudslinging from the Clinton camp.

The tone of her team's campaign lately has been negative, negative, negative.

[IndianaGreen]

69. Michelle Obama hates America and Barack refuses to wear flag pin

this will be followed by an exclusive report that Barack was selling crack. I've heard all of this shit in DU!!!!!!

[hogwyld]

96. Yeah, but was that crack Halal?

Just trying to keep that Barack is a muslim meme going.

[Abacus]

10. yikes

I really didn't think it'd get this close. *admonishingly* "Down Hopes, down."

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

23. Still 2 weeks to go

so it will only better from here on out.

[tekisui]

11. Well, that's not gonna give Hillary the needed "Big Win" to stay viable.

I'm so glad Mark Penn gave us a hard number to judge by.

[MoJoWorkin]

12. And wait until he steps foot in TX tomorrow----it will only get better.

[Avalux]

17. I'll be at Obama's town hall meeting in San Antonio tomorrow!

:bounce:

[MoJoWorkin]

39. Enjoy! I got to meet and talk with him briefly at a farm rally in S. IL when he was running

for Senate a few years back. I will remember it fondly forever, as it is now something that wouldn't happen with all the throngs of supporters.

I thought then, that he was destined for even bigger things---he was so impressive. I just didn't realize it would happen this fast.

[grantcart]

13. Well atleast we know why the Clinton campaign is making an ass

of itself with the plagarism bs. They will do anything to get off message now.

[enough already]

49. It does make a lot of sense now

god only knows what we can expect over the next two weeks. Great, great news though.

[Araxen]

14. and Obama himself hasn't landed in Texas yet

Things are going to be very interesting!

[City Lights]

15. Uh-oh...Texas is on the brink of being declared "irrelevant."

Texans...save yourselves!

:rofl:

:bounce:

[Occam Bandage]

16. So *that's* why we're seeing such desperate mudslinging.

[grantcart]

56. yup we have officially entered stage V

Stage I When you do not have the best position on the war - prevaricate

Stage II When you do not have the clear voice of leadership - triangulate

Stage III When you do not have the momentum - trivialize the election just lost

Stage IV When you do not have anywhere to go - instigate a smear on the supporters as unthinking cultists

Stage V When the supporters embrace the slur and turn it around - start backing up the dump truck and release a load
against the leader who has sparked a fire across the country.

Stage VI When this desperate tactic is reviled - step aside as the great locomotive of history barrels by you and you turn to watch history pass you by.


Stage VI will start on March 4

[JimGinPA]

18. They Better Put Some Asbestos On That "Firewall"...

It's starting to get hot down there!

:rofl:

[woolldog]

68. LOL!

[HeraldSquare212]

19. Wow!

[blocker]

21. Obama didn't even campaigned in texas

Plus he's getting every damn endorsement in the state, especially from major newspaper, i have a feeling he's in a better position that the clinton supporters are making it to be, plus, isn't Texas a mostly republican state? don't the Republicans hate the Clinton's?

[Adelante]

66. He was in Texas a year ago when he first announced

[JackORoses]

97. Caption: "This state ain't big enough for the both of us, Hillary!"

[Quixote1818]

22. Hillary needs to win by more than 2 points. nt

[BeyondGeography]

26. For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of Texas

[TheDonkey]

34. oh no you didn't!

:) GO TX, I agree with you. Let's get O to the oval office.

[scheming daemons]

35. Ding Ding! Today's SUBJECT one-liner winner!

awesome....

[BeyondGeography]

53. No offense intended, DU Texans!

Just couldn't resist, because of this:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/02/pride_in_the_na.html

[grantcart]

63. very droll lol

[XemaSab]

99. .

:rofl:

[Thrill]

27. I guess the begging for Debates hasn't worked

Now we move on to Plagiarism

[catgirl]

28. Time to move the goal posts!

Go Texas!!!

[thevoiceofreason]

29. And when Texans hear her say "Windfall Profits Tax"

It's all over

[ShortnFiery]

32. Salute! God Bless TEXAS!

:patriot:

[shadowknows69]

33. Looks like that firewall is burning down

Really will you guys admit she should drop out when she loses Texas? Can we get on to fighting McCain??

[apocalypsehow]

37. Another state on the verge of tipping over into the "it doesn't matter" column....

:sarcasm:

[Lisa0825]

38. Awesome! I have a question...

Most of the time the actual results seem to have been much higher for Obama than the polls were. How consistent has that been? Have there been any states where his numbers have been overestimated? I almost feel like adding 7-10% to every poll prior to a primary at this point!

[grantcart]

54. you are correct

I haven't seen anything more recent but it seems to be a reverse Bradley effect happening. I think that it is especially true in open primaries where Republicans who are openly with the party and will answer a poll that way will vote for Obama in secrecy.

It could also be the case that the model that they have they do not include enough independent/republican voters.

[Lisa0825]

62. Thanks! That's a great chart!

:woohoo:

[XemaSab]

100. I've thought about it

and I think maybe they're underpolling teh young and teh poor.

Young people often don't have landlines, and poor people often don't pick up the phone to avoid creditors OR live with many adults in a house. Hence, underepresentation.

[Arugula Latte]

55. Well, some New Hampshire polls saw him winning by quite a few points.

But, who knows ...

[Eurobabe]

40. And a couple weeks to go

w00t!!

GoBAMA! :woohoo:

[sniffa]

41. Amazing I don't see any Ignoreds on this thread

:shrug:

[book_worm]

42. Good news! but still two weeks to go until primary!

[NJSecularist]

43. This is not surprising at all

If Hillary thinks this is her firewall, then she is delusional. Texas plays well to Obama's demographics. If Obama can get 40% of the white vote and 40% of the Hispanic vote, he will win the state.

[Yurem2008]

46. Hillary saw her hopes die

DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS

[NJSecularist]

47. Well, she still has a chance to win the state

But I am not shocked by these new polls. If she thought she was going to have a built-in advantage in Texas, she is clearly delusional. She has a built-in advantage in Ohio, but certainly not in Texas.

[my3boyz]

88. Yes, she still has a chance. If she wins I think it will be close.

[RoadRage]

48. Wow, well that really didn't take long...

I was expecting him to pull even about a week before the primary.. and then ahead a day or two before.. it usually takes a while.

I guess now he's just on full steamroll approach.

Great.. keep up appearances in TX, and head on over to Ohio and start making a dent in that "lag".

Remind me again.. Hillary needs to WHALLOP Obama in both of these states to have a shot at winning, right? Like - winning by 1 or 2% really isn't going to be good enough, is it?

It's gonna be tough to say that Texas doesn't count.. i mean, I guess they are a red midwestern state, but seriously - they sure have a lot of delegates to be "un-countable".

[Bread and Circus]

50. bumping every thread that doesn't have the word "plagiarize" in it (or mispellinges thereof)

[grantcart]

72. I'll see your bump and raise you one

[Gnister]

51. Stay positive!

Probably a reaction to the Clintons going negative and siding up with the republican and McCain in the Attacks on Obama. Will be interesting to se the coming polls in Ohio. I really, really hope this will stop the Clintons from betraying our party and instead try a positive campaign. I'm confident this will give them a better results in the coming primaries.

Lets stay positive and unite in order to beat the republicans in November. Not attack each other and side up with the republicans!

Democrat First!!! United we will win in November!!!

[mudesi]

52. IT IS OVER FOR HILLARY CLINTON

Writing is on the wall. Time to drop out.

[Yurem2008]

60. HILLARY, DO THE HONORABLE THING: DROP OUT

for the good of our party. McPain is uniting the GOP and I expect Huckaboo to drop out after WI or TX. Hillary should just drop out gracefully like Mitt Romney and Edwards and help unite the Democratic Party to defeat McPain.

[mckeown1128]

57. I think Texas will break for Obama...

There is all this talk about the Hispanic vote... but African American's tied Hispanics in the last few Texas elections. AA have a better turn out ratio. So if Obama can keep the hispanic vote close than Texas will be a real posibility.

[NJSecularist]

61. All he needs to do is repeat his performance among New Mexico and Arizona Latinos in Texas

He got 40% from Latinos in both of those states.

If he gets 40% of the white vote in addition to that, he will win the state, IMO.

[rocktivity]

58. Get thee behind me, polls!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[tishaLA]

59. but he hasn't even been to Texas yet!

[Lisa0825]

64. He'll be here manana!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[usregimechange]

80. Good point! Or won WI yet

[BringBigDogBack]

67. Excellent.

[Robbins]

70. Texas

This will be the last post I can make today.I have said Texas was the weak link In the so called big 3 firewall for Hillary.What made the Clintons think Texas was a shoo In for them Is beyond me.This Is
a dead heat.Obama hasn't started campaging for the primary yet and he Is In strong shape.He has
newspaper and Hispanic leaders endosements.Obama can actully win the Texas vote.Of course once he does Mark Penn will says Texas doesn't count since no democrat can win It against Mccain.I would not
be surprised to see Hillary cut back on Texas,and spend more time In Ohio.Pundits may again have egg on their face March 4 since Obama could win 3 out of 4(after a possible double diget win In Wisconsion) another thing to consider about Ohio and Pennsylvania.People are saying Hillary needs a huge win there(and In Texas but It doesn't look like that will happen) however In New York she won
57 to 40.That was not a 24 to 30 lead some say she needs,and that Is her home state(For now anyway)

[usregimechange]

71. If Obama wins in Hillary's must win TX, the ball games over!

[K Gardner]

73. That's only Dems voting? Is Texas an open caucus/primary?

[usregimechange]

76. I heard it was open, are these just dems that were sampled? If so, he will win

[K Gardner]

91. Dear lord, they only sampled dems? Man, its going to be another BLOWOUT by the time

they factor in Independents and Republican crossover votes. GOBAMA !! :bounce:

[usregimechange]

93. Looks that way but we still need to make calls:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap

[Lisa0825]

83. It is open.

Any registered voter can vote in ONE of the primaries and if they vote in that primary, they can attend the caucus at 7pm after the polls close.

[K Gardner]

92. Thanks for this info!

[David Zephyr]

74. Kicking up above my duplicate post where it should be.

n/t

[loveangelc]

77. hellllllllllllll yes. MAKE ME PROUD TO BE FROM TEXAS, TEXAS !

[usregimechange]

78. Wheren bouts yun from?

:evilgrin:

[loveangelc]

110. Dallas

i dont live there anymore tho.

[Vinca]

79. Wow! It's only a matter of time before Texas doesn't count.

:rofl:

[my3boyz]

81. Brace yourselves...the knives will come out now.

They will stab him in the back without a thought to achieve their political dreams. If they are in danger of losing Texas they will do and say anything to stop it.

Now we know why they were saying that Texas was favorable to Obama. Their numbers must show this increase for Obama.

I think he will be okay if he can get this plagarism non-sense behind him.

[TEXASYANKEE]

86. Ads

I saw Obama's TV ads here in Dallas a good two weeks before I saw the first one from Hillary. And the only campaign call I've had this political season has been from the Obama camp.

[loveangelc]

82. This is exactly why the knives are starting to come out (as desperate as it seems)

if Obama wins TX it's over. That's all there is to it. She may try and fight on but in essence...it's over. Republicans crossing over may well be enough alone; I'm not saying it's right that Republicans in TX plan on crossing over but thats the way it goes.

[RedEarth]

84. Obamanos!

[my3boyz]

85. kick. nt

[Tatiana]

87. Texas is well on it's way to "not counting!" n/t

[TeamJordan23]

89. If Hillary does not win both Ohio and Texas by large margins, she should drop out. nm

[Scurrilous]

90. Fantastic!

K & R :thumbsup:

[TexasObserver]

98. I'm VINDICATED!! Who told me I was crazy for saying it's tied?!

Not looking so crazy now, huh?

[David Zephyr]

101. Kicking it to the top as this is real news for the forum.

:kick:

[SoxFan]

103. Asked for comment, Howard Wolfson said

[dave123williams]

104. That means that it's probably more like 60/40 Obama.

[D23MIURG23]

105. Looks like that firewall needs some more gas!

[maximusveritas]

108. Go Obama

Just wait til he campaigns.

[TexasObserver]

109. it's going to be Texas for Obama

by 5-15 points

[txaslftist]

111. I'll be voting for Obama.

I was here in 1992, and we BEGGED for Bill Clinton to come and campaign in Texas during the General. He didn't, based on his determination that Texas "didn't matter", and the Texas Democratic Party has been dealing with the consequences of being blown off ever since. NOW Hillary shows up and expects our support? It's a reciprocal thing. They wrote us off in 1992, and we can write them off today.

[Donnachaidh]

112. POOR math skills

Since when does 50 and 48 equate a dead heat?

Wait -- let me guess -- No Child left behind, right? :rofl:

Obama is BEHIND.

[KatieW]

113. I believe if you factor in the margin of error, you'd have a statistical dead heat.