Breaking Florida Rasmussen poll: McCain leads Obama by 16% (not a typo, 16%)

[Andreshunter77]

I don't think Hillary has a chance to catch up with Obama in the primaries, so I will only cite these numbers by Rasmussen regarding Obama vs.McCain, in a poll just released and conducted on February 16th.

McCain: 53%
Obama: 37%

Obama does very well in other states in polls conducted at the same time. What is happening in Florida?

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election

[Alexander]

1. Outlier. Most polls have him within striking distance.

Plus, the fraud in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006 has convinced many of us that our electoral fortunes lie in places other than Florida.

[woolldog]

2. I don't think

either of our candidates has a chance in Florida. Best to focus on other states.

[Andreshunter77]

6. It may have been a mistake in Rasmussen's methodology

Obama was trailing McCain in this state by 2% just about 5 days ago in Rasmussen. I cant' recall anything significant happening that may have tipped the balance so drastically in less than a week.

[woolldog]

18. yeah I remember seeing that.

Still don't think Hillary or Barack have much of a chance there. Edwards could have won Florida, but he's the only democratic contender who had a chance.

[Dr.Phool]

3. Florida has the stupidest electorate in the country.

Nothing down here would surprise me any more.

[NJSecularist]

5. Other than Ohio

[Coexist]

38. You talkin' to ME?

:hi:

[NJSecularist]

4. Florida is a lost cause

with either Hillary or Obama.

[Barack_America]

9. With McCain running, I agree.

If there were to be an electorate that would look favorably on him, that would be the place.

[FrenchieCat]

7. McCain campaigned up and down Florida.....

Barack didn't set foot in the state. He is largely an unknown there. McCain is well known.

It won't be that way once Barack gets in there......mark my words.

[Andreshunter77]

11. well, that doesn't explain why Obama trailed McCain in FL by 2% a week ago

How can the lack of campaigning in FL have hurt Obama just the last week? It's not like McCain went to FL a week ago and yelled "vote for me! not for Obama!" and left.

[nonconformist]

25. Yeah, they don't have TVs, or newspapers, or computers in Florida.... nt

[MadBadger]

8. Breaking...Really.

[stahbrett]

10. Obama hasn't campaigned in Florida like he's done in the other states

Just wait until he campaigns - Obama has this habit of making big poll leads for his opponents disappear.

[Andreshunter77]

17. In order to make a person's lead disappear, that person needs to be hated by the media

Hillary Clinton was the perfect target, because the media helps her opponent by scrutinizing every word coming out of her mouth. McCain won't have that problem. Trust me.

[thereismore]

12. Geriatric vote. nt

[MadBadger]

13. Obama will lose Florida

No thanks to Senator Nelson and the Democratic Operation down there.

[cooolandrew]

14. Oh Florida, I listen to the Guy James show and he says it's the reddest state in the union...

... Not to say there are no Democrats there but I get the feeling they are outnumbered.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

22. I lived in Orlando for 2 years.

Republican Ground Zero there, I swear to god.

[thoughtcrime1984]

15. I am not worried. Bookmark this sucker.

Obama wins the Presidency with 52%+ of the popular vote. Wins Electoral College comfortably. Bank it.

[CTLawGuy]

16. Florida is one of the few states trending red

over the past 8 years. this is sadly to be expected.

[Recursion]

19. I don't see FL being in play for either of our candidates

I'm not remotely saying to give up, just that we need to look past our "four corners" strategy of the past 16 years.

[ShortnFiery]

20. Am I experiencing Deja Vu? Wasn't the EXACT same topic covered earlier today?

:shrug: :eyes:

[McCamy Taylor]

21. Obama has not campaigned in Florida, sillies, because of the early primary.

Where he goes, he wins voters. If he is the nominee, he can go campaign.

However, Florida is pretty damn redneck. I would go for some midwest states that have been hit hard by the economy first.

[Andreshunter77]

23. But Obama was tied with McCain in Florida last week

At least statistically, trailing McCain by 2% in Rasmussen itself. How can you explain that this suddenly turned into 16%? He wasn't campaigning there last week either.

[billyoc]

24. Florida. Old people and their parents. nt

[dysfunctional press]

26. well- it's obviously because they won't seat the hillary delegates from florida...

i mean- that's what they've all been saying would happen if the rules were upheld, right?

should we surmise that it's started...? :shrug:

[Ivote]

31. Ding Ding Ding

You sure have that right

[still_one]

27. In all fairness you should have listed Hillary's numbers against mccain in florida

which put her six points behind mccain

However, because of what florida has done to itself in recent years by electing jeb, and their republican legislature, the only thing I can say is that if they are still supporting mccain, especially with the housing and economic situation there, then they deserve exactly what they are getting

Of course, I am not referring to those who are caught in the middle of this insanity, and never voted for the republican in the state

[AndyTiedye]

28. There Are No Electoral Votes for Us in the South — We MUST Win Ohio, Somehow

Neither of our candidates is viable in the South. We have to find our electoral votes elsewhere.
The southwest would be promising if we weren't running against McCain, who is a favorite son there.

That leaves the coastal blue states and Illinois — the states Kerry won — and Ohio. We MUST win Ohio.
There is no way either of our candidates can possibly win the Presidency without Ohio.
We also have to run the table on the states Kerry won. We can't afford to lose any of them.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

29. You won't cite the Hillary numbers

Because they're barely better than those for Obama.

Florida is going to be an uphill climb. Thank goodness Obama will be putting Virginia, Colorado, Montana, Missouri, Georgia and a host of other states in play.

[Obamaman2008]

30. 2 months ago Obama was 20 points behind Hillary n/t

[Orangepeel]

32. We're not going to win Florida no matter who is the nominee

unfortunately

[lapfog_1]

33. A previous thread

with links to theoretical match up data. Obama is clearly the better choice. FL looks to be difficult for both.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4646083

[lurky]

34. Identity Politics?

McCain has the crusty old snowbird vote sewn up.

[Sulawesi]

35. McCain will play better to elderly voters, FL demographic not great for O.

[Occam Bandage]

36. Same reason Hillary won FL. Obama hasn't campaigned there.

[Araxen]

37. Florida voted Jeb Bush in

They aren't too smart over there.

[karynnj]

39. I'm not surprised

I think McCain will win Florida. The Cuban American population likes McCain - probably even more than they did Bush.

The group that likely makes the difference between Obama and HRC now is the Jewish population. As seen on other DU threads, there is a RW hit piece focusing on the Jewish population. It implicitly hits the fact that Obama is not a neo con. In the course of an election, those negatives could be countered - by attacking the core assumption - that the PNAC ideas help Israel. In fact, they have made it at more risk.