If Clinton does not convincingly win Ohio and Texas, she needs to drop out

[mudesi]

For the good of the party and for the good of the country, Ms. Clinton better put aside her ambitions and do what's right should she not win Texas and Ohio by a convincing margin. I am becoming increasingly concerned with each passing day that her shameless desperation to win at any cost will lead to her dragging this primary out all the way to the convention.

Let me tell you all something, whether you support Clinton or Obama: If this thing doesn't get decided until August, THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE THE WHITE HOUSE. That may just be my opinion, but I believe there is good reason to hold it.

McCain is going to have his nomination wrapped up a lot sooner than the Democrats. The only saving grace we have here is Mr. Huckabee's stubbornness, not at all dissimilar to Ms. Clinton's. If the GOP have their candidate chosen months before the Democrats, they can start focusing on campaigning, fund raising, and attacking, while the Democrats will still be embattled in this bitter contest amongst themselves (Which the GOP will use to their advantage).

McCain has 908 delegates. He needs 283 to secure the nomination. Not counting Romney's 253 delegates that will likely join him, he can have this thing wrapped up by early March. At the very latest, April. That is a 4 to 5 and a half month head start for the Republicans if Clinton does not concede on March 4, two weeks from now.

Tell me I'm wrong, Clinton supporters. I know it may be a hard pill to swallow, but can't we at least agree on this? I don't think anyone here wants to see another Republican president. Let's not give them any advantages. This primary has gone on long enough. Edwards was good enough to see the writing on the wall, and I think that if Clinton cannot convincingly take Texas and Ohio on March 4th, she needs to do what is best for the country.

Edit:
By the way, here are links to the primary schedule and the delegates for each contest:
Democrats
Republicans

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Agreed

[dempartisan23]

16. she has to win by 30%

or it will be a loss

[rug]

34. So a 36% vote for Obama is a win?

[nomorewhopper]

18. what happens if she gets blown out of the water in Hawaii and Wisconsin today?

by the way has anybody seen exit reports?

i'm assuming none are available for hawaii yet, but how about wisconsin?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

24. Then the Texas and Ohio landslides would need to be even bigger.

No exit polls yet. Wisconsin's all over the board, Hawaii should be an Obama landslide.

[monmouth]

2. Agreed and well stated. K&R...n/t

[Justyce]

3. If Obama loses Texas and Ohio, should he drop out as well? I don't

think anyone should drop out until all the states have had a chance to vote.

[anamandujano]

4. Afraid of letting the democratic process play out?

If Obama doesn't have the requisite 2025 delegates, he is not a winner. Let's do follow the rules now, mkay?

[NoBushSpokenHere]

5. Agreed - in fact, I think the sooner the better

If she does not come through today, she needs to step aside and even though I know it would be difficult to do, she needs to get behind Obama.

[NMMNG]

6. You assume St. Obama has it all locked up I see

He'll just coast into the White House, because everybody will just bow down and accept his inevitability. All hail the new Messiah. The great Uniter.


Goddamn that must be some good Kool-Aid.

[mudesi]

8. Did I say that?

What I actually said was if Clinton cannot win Texas and Ohio, she needs to drop out for the good of the country because I am afraid of the Republicans having a head start at campaigning and fund raising.

That is what I said.

[nonconformist]

14. And if she does win Texas and Ohio, then Obama should drop out? nt

[northzax]

7. what is 'convincingly' to you?

if she wins Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, any of which have significantly more voters that all the caucuses put together, shouldn't you then argue that Obama should drop out?

if she wins by just a few percentage points, she will end up with probably 100,000+ more actual voters than Obama does, and within a few dozen delegates. what do you do then?

[mudesi]

9. In that case I don't know

But if it doesn't happen for her, don't you agree that the writing is on the wall?

[northzax]

29. if she doesn't win them?

then yes. if she does? then she's the nominee.

[anamandujano]

15. Thank you

for injecting some logic into the discussion.

[asjr]

10. No, I do not want a Republican president,

but if we should have one I will not blame the loss on Hillary Clinton. That is all I see now on this board. Are the lot of you entered into a contest to see which one can bash Clinton the most or the best? I have seen some of the most immature reasoning on this blog this year. All this mess says more about who is blogging than anything Hillary Clinton does or does not do. It's gladiators, lions and Christians all over again. We would make ancient Rome proud.

[havocmom]

11. Whose gonna go in and tell her?

I think drawing straws and maybe Kevlar would be in order

[Dogmudgeon]

12. Neither will get the magic 2025 by the convention

And there have been hundreds of calls by Obama followers that Hillary should drop out for the good of the Party, the Country, etc. The implicit message is that Obama has been anointed, and all challenges are illegitimate.

And Team Obama rails against Hillary for the press' habit of saying that she was "inevitable" -- ?

Obama supporters want so little: merely the political and personal destruction of Hillary and Bill Clinton, and the silence of anyone who dares question the Transformative Leader. Then all conflict will disappear, and we will all be One.

--p!

[griffi94]

21. resistance is futile

and yet i think i'll resist anyway.....obama hasn't won anything yet.....so there's no reason for hillary to drop out....if the obamabots are that concerned about the damage that is being inflicted on the democratic party maybe they can get obama to drop out....you know...for the good of the party and the good of the nation....lol

[anamandujano]

37. "obama hasn't won anything yet"

Just emphasizing these important words.

They are in such a rush to wrap it up, it looks like they fear the outcome.

[Bullet1987]

13. I think the sooner Obama can wrap up the nomination

and rest up before the General Election starts, gather the base, build an argument against McCain...the better off we'll be. I agree, the long and outdrawn scenario doesn't favor the Dems in the GE.

[backscatter712]

17. Agreed.

Ohio and Texas is Clinton's last desperate hail-mary pass.

She needs to win by at least 20-30 points in both states, or she's done. If she loses either of those two, catching up in the pledged delegate counts will be impossible.

The only tactics she would have left at that point would be the unethical ones - gaming the system with superdelegates or seating the FL & MI delegates (which won't be enough). Quite frankly, she will not be making any friends at that point, the superdelegates will likely start pledging to Obama, and her donations will evaporate. It won't be long before her campaign completely runs out of gas.

[susankh4]

19. 20-30 points

Where is that number from?

[nomorewhopper]

20. i believe that's the number that would conceivably give her enough delagates to counter obama's lead

at a certain point, the primaries come to an end, and there's only so many ways for hillary to catch up.

unless she wins convincingly in a few upcoming states i do not beleive she will have enough delegates to take the lead.

i don't know the exact numbers, and obviously, the delegate count is influenced by a million factors, so the 20-30% is kind of being thrown around as a rule of thumb.

[griffi94]

22. hahahaha

you don't know the exact numbers but you gues she has to win by 20-30%
your concern for hillary is touching.....maybe you should call her and implore her to drop out for the good of the nation....i'm sure she'll listen to YOU.....:rofl:

[backscatter712]

32. Part of the problem is that...

different sources have different delegate counts, so exact numbers aren't there.

Anyways, here's some numbers for you which aren't too far off the mark:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Just to throw out some of them:

Total delegates: Obama: 1302, Clinton: 1234

Pledged delegates: Obama: 1134, Clinton 996

Wisconsin: 74 delegates up for grabs

Hawaii: 20 delegates

Texas: 193 delegates

Ohio: 141 delegates

As of right now, Clinton is behind by 138 pledged delegates. Let's assume Clinton wins each of Wisconsin, Hawaii, Texas and Ohio by 60%-40% (I think that's a very optimistic appraisal of her upcoming performance, but that' IMHO)

That'd throw the delegates as follows:

WI: Clinton: 44, Obama: 30

HI: Clinton: 12, Obama: 8

TX: Clinton: 116, Obama: 77

OH: Clinton: 85, Obama 56

Now, Totals:

Pledged: Clinton: 1,253, Obama: 1,305.

With superdelegates (assuming they don't bail for Obama:

Clinton: 1,492, Obama: 1,473

In short, she's still short on pledged delegates. She'll be barely ahead if the superdelegates are counted, and that's if (a very big if) the superdelegates remain the same. If she loses Texas or Ohio, she will lose that tiny lead with the superdelegates included, and she'll be running fresh out of opportunities to catch up.

[susankh4]

23. I'd like to see a statistical breakout.....

but thanks for your "estimate" anyway.

[nomorewhopper]

26. you're missing the point

the delegates are assigned on a very complex manner

for example in texas districts are rewarded for their past voter turnouts. very hispanic areas had proportionally lower turnouts last year and thus are rewarded with fewer delegates. so more importance is assigned to certain areas.

you can't say "hillary needs to win by 400,000 votes" . it doesn't work like that.

she is down delegates and needs to catch up. Neither state is winner take all. texas has 193 delegates up for grabs, and hillary needs like 50-60 delegates to surpass obama. if hillary wins by 5%, or whatever, they both get like 90-95 delegates. hillary needs BIG wins here, in the right areas.

you can avoid the math, and call me names, but that's the truth.

[susankh4]

36. Actually....

No I am not missing the point. You are.

This is far too complex for anyone to assert exactly what percentage any candidate must win by in any primary. Delegates, while divided, are not divided evenly all the time. If you think they are, just look at NM. The vote was dang near eveny split there, yet Clinton walked away with 18 for Obama's 13 delegates.

I am sure there are actuaries that can work some numbers pretty accurately on this. But... noone, not even you or I, can say "she must ahve 30% of OH and TX" to win.

[liberalhistorian]

25. Sorry, as an Obama supporter I must disagree.

The states voting beyond OH and TX deserve to have their say as well, and there's no telling how she'll do in the remaining states until they DO vote. It's not as if they are that far apart, you know. There's just a hair-thin margin separating them at this point.

By no means should she drop out. That is undemocratic to the core. And I say that as a staunch Obama supporter. I know that some of the Hillary supporters want Obama to drop out, but that's not going to happen and shouldn't, for the same reasons why SHE shouldn't drop out.

[DGoldman1212]

30. Another Obama supporter agrees

and I don't think either one of them are going to have blowouts in Texas. It will be very close as it already is right now. Now, Mike Gravel...is he still in? Maybe he should consult his staff and draft an "I quit" letter if he doesn't do well in Texas. : )

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

27. Yeahhhh, Sorry Pal. Ain't Quite Up To You.

And nice creativity it took to post the same tired old bullshit we've seen here a brazillion times already.

So silly!

[mudesi]

31. You're one to talk

As if every single one of your posts is a bastion of originality.
:eyes:

Why not give me an actual reason to disagree with my opinion? Oh, right, it's because you are OPERATIONMINDCRIME, king of the baiting response.

[Tom Rinaldo]

28. No, not agreed

Probably she has to win both, but perhaps she can lose one by 3% or less and win the other by 10% or more and move forward to win Pennsylvania by 15% or more and still be legitimately viable. If Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio by over 5% she is still very solidly in the race.

Many of Obama's margins of victory of late have been fueled by the wave of momentum he has been riding. If Hillary Clinton can stand in front of that Tidal Wave of momentum and emerge winning very important primaries in two very large and important states, Texas AND Ohio, despite it - that means that her campaign has come alive and Obama is hitting rough water. It totally would change perceptions not only about the race, but about the candidates also. It would set up Pennsylvania as a crucial final major contest, and almost certainly would trigger one or more national additional debates between Obama and Clinton with very high viewership.

If Hillary wins both Texas and Ohio that I believe would be a validation of her performance in the two upcoming national debates already scheduled between Obama and Clinton. The way I see it, if most viewers believe that Hillary out debates Obama in two consecutive one on one debates, and then goes on from there to defeat him in the two critical primaries that follow; the fact that she wins them alone will be convincing enough to continue and possibly win the nomination. Pennsylvania would loom large and momentum would be with Hillary.

I strongly disagree with those who assert that Hillary has to win Texas and Ohio by 20% to 30% each. That is a transparent attempt to play the expectations game so that only Obama can come out winning.

[mudesi]

43. That's an interesting take on it

I never thought about it in that way. Mathematically, she absolutely must win by over 20%. Psychologically, however, I think you're right. If she just wins them, even by very small margins, it might make a difference.

We agree that if she loses them both, though, that she ought to drop out, do we not?

[ORDem]

33. KICK n/t

:kick:

[niyad]

35. you object to the democratic process? the rest of the states should not have a say, is that it?

nice going.

[Beregond2]

38. Drop out...

I agree that she SHOULD, but have doubts that she WILL. Her whole campaign has been about putting her ego ahead of the party and the country. Why would that change?

I'm not so sure that McCain having a head start is such an advantage. He has nothing to say really, and with no opponent to go up against, he would just be left hanging in the wind. All that time for him to do nothing but reveal what an a**hole he is? Doesn't sound so bad to me.

Besides, the people of this country are so fed-up with the Repugs, I can't see anything less than the Democratic candidate being Hillary that would create a Repug victory.

[Recursion]

39. I'm an Obama supporter, and I find this silly

She needs to drop out if and when she is convinced that her candidacy no longer helps the country and the party.

Period. Full stop. Not a day before. Same applies to Obama.

[eridani]

40. No candidate should drop out, period. That includes those who did. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

41. She shold drop out if she loses either one, not if she wins both

But she won't be dropping out either way.

Problem is, there's six weeks between Mississippi on March 11 and Pennsylvania on April 22. Six weeks for McCain and Clinton to tag team Obama and drive his negatives up; that's a nightmare for the party. It's also why, I think, many voters in Texas and Ohio will trend toward Obama because they'll see an opportunity to close this thing out.

That's assuming he wins tonight, of course, and heads into March 4 with a 10-election winning streak.

[susankh4]

42. Hillary will do the right thing....

She has been subverting the dominant paradigm for a long, long time. She is a compromiser extra-ordinaire.

I have long held that we need BOTH of these candidates on our 2008 ticket in order to win. I hold fast to that even now. And I don't want Hillary to bow out... until we, in OH and PA, make it clear that *for us* she is more than an asterisk to this year's primary season.

I am seeing a BHO/HRC ticket shaping up. Sort of reminiscent of the JFK/LBJ ticket everyone keep talking about (oh, yes, they battled bitterly for the top spot as well.) This will be a fabulous ticket for our party! Make no mistake!! Even I, as a long time HRC supporter can see the wisdom of having BHO on top.

Be patient! Let democracy work for a change!