Obama wins the 11th Feb Primary -SUPER DELEGATE UPDATE

[grantcart]

It is clear now that the 11th primary in February will be decisively won by Senator Obama: The Feb SuperDelegate Primary

1) Since Super Tuesday approximately Obama has seen a net gain of 22 (Obama +18 Clinton -4)
( MSNBC http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/20/685846.aspx)

A net gain of 22 would equal the net gain of South Carolina and Kansas combined.

2) Recent movements of Super Delegates have been gaining pace:

2/18 Chet Edwards (TX) +1
2/19Carol Campbell (PA) +1
2/20 Rep Kind (WI) +1
Rep Steve Kagen(WI) +1
Rep Lloyd Doggett (TX) +1
St Sen Dana Redd (NJ) +2
DNCDonald Norcross (NJ) +1

3) Chuck Todd MSNBC said on KO that he projected that Obama could net another 20 by the end of the month



Here is a list of undeclared delegates
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegates-who-havent-endorsed.html

General information on Super Delegates
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

4) Obviously if current trends continue it would put the possibility of reversing Sen Obama's current lead of total delegates beyond reversal barring Clinton wins exceeding 65%

Obama 1330
Clinton 1245

As previously noted http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4600962&mesg_id=4600962
it is highly unlikely that Texas will provide much of a net delegate increase for Clinton even if she wins the popular vote because
1) Its part caucus and 2)the delegates are weighted by past democratic voting pattern giving districts likely to be carryied by Obama more delegates.

5)This brings us to the curious fact that in the middle of the do or die races in Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton takes valuable time out to campaign in New York with a small group and a low budget/low revenue fund raiser. In attendence? Many NY super delegates. In next door NJ several Clinton super delegates have already started sliding away. In New York she is sitting on 37 Superdelegates (many of them from predominately Black districts carried by Obama). If they were to show any defections in her home state itwould be a negative signal to superdelegates elsewhere and could trigger a campaign ending flood.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/113711
It must have been an odd sensation for the superdelegates in the room when Sen Schumer reminded them once again that they were in a "grim situation".

quote
About 1,500 supporters attended the speech at Hunter's campus, though, tellingly, very few of them appeared to be of college age. Fellow New York legislators Sen. Chuck Schumer, Rep. Charles Rangel and Rep. Carolyn Maloney were there, along with close to a dozen New York state elected officials, including former New York City mayor David Dinkins. In his introductory remarks, Schumer acknowledged the grim situation Clinton now faces, having lost 10 consecutive contests. But he said he's not worried. "I have seen Hillary Clinton take a punch, but every time she gets right back up stronger than before
unquote

The critical 11th post SuperTuesday primary "Signing up Super Delegates" has been won by Sen. Obama. The only question remaining is will it be a Minnesota +24 or equal the loss of California -44.

[quantass]

1. Excellent Writeup -- I was totally into this whole post. .. nt

[grantcart]

8. ty

[grantcart]

25. got one more

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/02/kathy-castor-en.html

[Major Hogwash]

2. Schumer is just deluding himself.

"She gets right back up stronger than before."
What a load of crap.

This isn't a boxing match, this is an election to save what is left of the world.

[CorpGovActivist]

7. Poor Schumer.

Now the prospect that she might stick around.

No "New York" President, after all.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

3. Few people realize how much effort it takes to put together...

... a post this factual.

Thank you, very much, for providing an objective look at the current state of affairs.

K&R!

- Dave

[elixir]

5. Thorough, yes, objective, not so much.

[grantcart]

10. I'll take thorough. I did leave out a number of delegates who have

made statements giving a strong indicator that they were committing or change out until they actually move.(For example Garry Shay currently Clinton supporter has indicated he is likely to change).

You are certainly free to take the facts above and recast them in a more objective light or more favorable to Hillary.

The least factual part of the piece is my speculation on why Hillary leaves the field to go to New York. I don't believe it was fund raising and in Wisconsin leaving the field was not perceived well so my guess is that with such a heavy concentration of superdelegates it might have been a motive. Rep Rengel for example who was at the meeting, is in an ackward situation because it seems his entire Congressional District has gone Obama - including his wife.

In addition there is growing controversy that African American votes were undercounted in New York and it might be adding pressure on New York Super Delegates to move.

I would love to hear any alternative theory on her New York visit that conforms to known facts, and thank you for your comment.

[CorpGovActivist]

14. Oh, well. I must've had my scale tilted...

... by so much exposure to the "objectivity" of your avatar's mouthings.

- Dave

[grantcart]

23. Adding one more

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/02/kathy-castor-en.html

[MadBadger]

4. Did anybody win the Abroad vote yet?

[CorpGovActivist]

6. That gets announced sometime this week, if memory serves. n/t

[grantcart]

17. Its hard to tell lol

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_Abroad

For the 2008 Democratic Primaries, Democrats Abroad has enabled millions of U.S. citizens living overseas to have the chance to vote in the first-ever online global primary to choose the Democratic nominee for President.

The Democratic global primary allows for balloting by Internet, fax and post. Traditional drop-in Voting Centers will also be open in more than 30 countries around the globe (for a list of Voting Centers, visit <4>.

The worldwide election results will determine the 14 delegates who will join eight DNC members in Democrats Abroad’s delegation of 22 to the Democratic National Convention. These delegates will be elected at a combination of regional and global meetings held during early 2008. These meetings also provide an opportunity for Americans abroad to shape the party's election platform.

American citizens living overseas who want to vote in the Democratic global primary must either be members of Democrats Abroad or they may join by January 31 to request a ballot from Democrats Abroad at www.VoteFromAbroad.org They can also join in person at voting centers.

To vote in the U.S. Presidential Election in November, overseas voters must request a ballot from local voting authorities in the place where they last resided in the U.S., also possible at <5>

The Democrats Abroad Global Primary will take place from February 5-12, 2008. (results?) Democrats Abroad Regional Caucuses will take place in Brussels on March 15, 2008, for Europe-Middle East-Africa and in Vancouver on April 11, 2008, for the Americas and Asia-Pacific.

[Adelante]

29. Obama 66% nt

[Johnny__Motown]

9. Great post, You might want to work in the N.Y. recount under #5 but still a great post

[grantcart]

12. excellent point and coincidentally I was including it in my post above #10

Why in the middle of the campaign do you have to go to NY for what amounts to be a non event? That is the real sub plot of the post.

The reason I posted it now instead of waiting for a couple more defections was the trip.

If Bill goes to New York it will show that they have a real baby sitting problem and your point on the under counting the vote has made it worse in African American districts. Charle Rengel must be near a stroke right now.

[Cha]

11. Obama doesn't seem to be doing

too badly in the boomerang department of hilary's thrown punches. hilary is her own worst enemy ..maybe if she'd should stop punching 'erself.

[Tatiana]

13. I just wonder what things are like in the Schumer/Durbin Senior Senator household.

The superdelegates are clearly moving towards Obama. Every single strategy the Clintons have devised has backfired.

Going negative repulsed the Wisconsin voters.

Saying that Obama hasn't won any "significant states" has led to the hilarious "states that don't count" list. Recently added: Wisconsin and Hawaii. This may also anger some voters in smaller states who won't like being called "insignificant."

Highlighting fundraising efforts only caused Obama supporters to donate even more.

Accusing Obama of plagiarism illustrated that both Clintons (along with a host of other politicians) had borrowed language from others in their speeches.

Emphasizing Clinton's experience has only caused McCain to pick up the topic and make the argument that he is the candidate with more experience than any of them. So in a sense, Clinton has put herself in the "experienced camp" with McCain, which may repulse voters.

Floating the idea of trying to pick off some of Obama's pledged delegates has caused superdelegates to come out and declare their intentions to vote for Obama.

Trying to making the comparison that the "automatic delegates" are just the same as the delegates from the public has raised alarm with both party officials and the public. People feel that Clinton is trying to "steal the election" or subvert the will of the people by "winning at all costs."

[grantcart]

19. Well I understand that Durbin is the neat one lol. Did you see them on MTP?

It was clear to me that Schumer was suffering thru this and that he is a likely member in the upcoming "intervention committee".

Thank you for your addition.

[Tatiana]

20. Schumer is clearly in a difficult position. I think he would like to tell Hillary to give it up.

But he is as loyal to Clinton as Durbin is to Obama. Maybe even more so.

[grantcart]

21. yes that's why he will be so important he will deliver the coup de grace

from the wise elders. did you take these pictures? lol

[Barack_America]

15. Aren't you missing one from New Jersey?

Another Clinton defector?

Found it. Christine "Roz" Samuels. I think she was the first defector, if I remember correctly.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--superdelegates-nj0220feb20,0,5270574.story

[grantcart]

16. Absolutely right and thank you.

I had posted a seperate post on that two weeks ago - and I worked in Montclair briefly. I will add her on the next update. But it doesn't effect the total because I was using their more inclusive number and they already had her.

[grantcart]

24. and we picked up one more

[Scurrilous]

18. Good work!

K & R :thumbsup:

[grantcart]

22. tks

[mythyc]

26. DCW is a great and very reliable site

DCW, Demconwatch. They have very strict standards (verification required for all superdelegate endorsements, links needed, and often their users will call the offices of the supers to verify the stories) and as far as I've been able to see they have achieved nearly pure objectivity. Matt and Oreo (the mods) are delegate and convention whizzes too. I check the site multiple times a day both to get updates and to learn from their deep expertise. Can't recommend it highly enough--- thanks for posting it here.

[grantcart]

27. You are 100% correct and the people that log on and help are

very sharp. Thank you for pointing that out I should have given them more explicit credit

[grantcart]

28. More Changes + 4 more delegates since this was last posted

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

2/20 , Rep. Kathy Castor (FL) for Obama
2-21-08 - Added DNC Jason Rae (WI) for Obama.
- Added DNC Margaret Xifaras (MA) for Obama
- Added Rep. Steve Kagen (WI) for Obama

[grantcart]

30. update