Hillary's Goal for tonight!

[kennetha]

Her goal should not be to try and take down Obama. It should be to remind her voters of what they have liked about her. She needs simply to reclaim her winning coalition of women, downscale whites, hispanics, etc. She needs to talk about what's at stake in this election and explain why she is the right person for the job. Trying to score points of Obama would be a losing proposition.

If she reclaims her constituency and coalition, she wins Texas, Ohio, and Penn by substantial margins because these states are MUCH more demographically suited to her than, say, the Potomac states.

So my prediction is that this will be a substantive debate pretty free of fireworks and attempts to tear down the other. THere's no percentage in taking a negative approach for Obama, clearly. But if you think about it further, there's no % in it for Clinton either.

Think about it this way. Clinton's core voters in Wisconsin "flirted" with Obama in a big way -- actually it went beyond flirting, they slept with him. If you want to win back your straying lover whose jumped to another, you don't attack his/her now found love. You remind him/her of the good times you had together. You try to put on your best self -- the one he/she knew and loved once.

She needs to get her core voter's love back again. If she does, she wins these next three. If she doesn't she's burnt toast.

[lapfog_1]

1. I agree with you.

unfortunately, Mark Penn does not. And, according to news reports, he may have won the internal debate inside the Clinton campaign as to the direction that the campaign needs to go.

Expect Hillary to attack Obama on his readiness to be Commander in Chief.

edit to add link demonstrating this (just found it in another thread)...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/20/ST2008022002981.html

[scheming daemons]

2. Yep..... Mark Penn AGAIN takes the exact opposite path that her campaign needs....

....and again he will be puzzled when it doesn't work out.

Worst. Consultant. Ever.

[lapfog_1]

3. It's a race (in my opinion) between him and Joe Trippi.

I know that many here like Joe... but he hasn't really done much for either Howard Dean or John Edwards. I don't know that it's all his fault, but some of the blame should land at his feet.

[GumboYaYa]

14. I agree re Trippi.

[John Q. Citizen]

4. I can't understand why Hillary listens to and does whatever that man tells her to.

Is she so dependant on him that she can't see he's bad for her?

[lapfog_1]

5. There is very little "down time" for the candidate.

It's rush here, rush there, meet and greet thousands of people every day, smile, smile, stay on message, eat stuff everywhere and pretend that its the best thing you ever put in your mouth.

Not to mention the dozens of staffers wanting to tell you this or that.

They rarely have time (in the heat of battle) to pause and reconsider fundamentals... like who your chief strategist should be. And, also, at this point, were she to fire Mark Penn, the story would be "Hillary's campaign in turmoil and disarray" not "Hillary takes the high road" or similar.

Damned if she does, damned if she doesn't.

[John Q. Citizen]

8. Yes, it's far too late at this point.

[Progressive_In_NC]

11. I hat those words "Stay on Message"

It leads me to believe that you don't believe one Iota of what you're saying. If you have to remember to "Stay on Message" is it really coming from your heart. I have "Hope" that we have "the right message".

"Yes we can!"

Geez, tell me something that will educate me, don't soundbite me to death.

[kennetha]

7. Don't be so sure

Remember the pre-super Tuesday debate. It was all sweetness and light. Both sides were trying basically to cement the deal with their core constituencies. It seems to have worked. That's where the big demographic split between Obama and Clinton first really showed up. That's why the fought each other to a stalemate.

The the turf turned much more favorably demographically in Obama's favor. The only real outlier is Wisconsin. But Clinton was outspent 4-1 after first not planning to contest the election there. I think they went in as they did only to keep the delegate count down there.

Plus Wisconsin's electorate was 27%, as I recall, independent and Republican and had same day registration. Negated demographics -- Cause Clinton's demographic is a democratic demographic.

The same factors won't be at work in the next three. Her advisors are not UTTER idiots.

I predict a replay of the pre-Super Tuesday debate.

[lapfog_1]

9. They had no plan "B"

which is why they stuck with plan "A". The coronation was supposed to be Super Tuesday... but that didn't happen. By not having a plan "B", she allowed the "insignificant" states to start a huge momentum shift to Obama. So while you are correct that the next three favor her demographically (although Texas, by way of it's Primary/Caucus thing, procedurally works in favor of Obama), she now has to fight AGAINST the momentum. People in those states are watching the Tube, they see the huge margins for Obama, they see the Teamster Union endorsements... it will affect their votes. Hillary has a much tougher uphill battle now BECAUSE she didn't plan on having to contest those "insignificant" states.

[Thrill]

6. She better try to sell herself tonight. Why she would be the better candidate

Not trying to attack Obama. People don't want to hear that shit.

[goodgd_yall]

10. I also agree all the way

I like your analogy too.

[SKKY]

12. How do you propose she do that?

Cry again?

[kennetha]

15. Pure Cynicism

She just needs to talk about her approach to problems, her priorities, her motivation, what drives her, what she wants to do for whom, and what qualifies her to do it. She's talking to persuadable voters -- not diehards like you or me.

[GumboYaYa]

13. It is extremely difficult to reconvince voters to vote for you.

The challenge is significantly harder than convincing them to vote for you the first time. She has her work cut out for her. I don't think she gain enough in two debates to offset his money and organizational advantages. (Did I really type that about Clinton's campaign? How far the mighty have fallen.)

Crazy things happen in politics (see McCain's problems), but absent something at least that drastic, Obama has this one sewn up.

[kennetha]

16. She 's won't be addressing herself to those who have already voted.

She needs to make the connection with the persuadable voters out there. I'm convinced that there are enough of them especially in places that haven't yet voted for her to reach. Again, remember the pre Super Tuesday debate. Both Obama and Clinton reached out and grabbed their core constituencies. And all democrats were really proud to have two such stellar candidates -- which they both really are.

If this were major league baseball, instead of major league politics, Obama would be up for Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young Award, and the league MVP award all at once. He's an amazing campaigner. Better than Bill Clinton in his prime, perhaps. But Hillary has been hit by a Tsunami, that swept every other democrat away -- and these were very serious men, for the most part, with long and distinguished careers and reasonable expectations that they might make a good to very good president -- and she is still standing. Even if she is behind, she is still standing. Think of the Red Sox.

[GumboYaYa]

18. I was referring to the apparent loss of key demographic support that we saw in the WI results.

Add that to the pro-Obama movement in the polls in TX and possibly Ohio (not as strong of a trend in Ohio) and it is pretty apparent that her core constituency has left her. As you say, she definitely needs to try to get them back. But she also needs to add to her core constituency just to get the votes she needs to stay even.

Negative attacks will not do that unless she has a nuclear bomb to drop. Unfortunately, even if she gets her core back, she most likely can not take away from Obama's core by having a positive message.

She has one alternative, look for a nuclear bomb.

[kennetha]

20. If she wins her core demographics by Super Tuesday margins

She will score big wins in Ohio and in Texas. That's her one and only hope. I don't think she needs to go nuclear to do that. She needs to remind her straying lover that even though the new guy is fresh and exciting, she is his one true love, always has been, always will be. That needs to be her message. She needs to speak directly and specifically to women, downscale whites, hispanics, etc. Going nuclear won't accomplish that.

[GumboYaYa]

21. I hope that your recommendation is the path the campaign takes.

The absolutely worst result that could happen is for attacks to destroy two stars of the Democratic party this primary season.

My gut tells me that the campaign is looking at the demographics of the remaining states and coming to the conclusion that their only hope is to go nuclear.

[nomorewhopper]

17. Will the debate be broadcast on national channels? NBC/CBS/ABC?

I don't get the cable news networks - just the national major networks.

anybody know if this debate will be nationally televised?

if not, can i find it online? i want to watch.

[NDambi]

19. This is what I found on the debate tonight

The debate, to be held on the campus of the University of Texas, will air live on CNN, CNN International and CNN.com from 8 to 9:30 p.m. ET. The debate will also air in Spanish on Univision at 11:30 p.m. ET.

[Seabiscuit]

22. Experience. Talk about what is happening in Serbia right now ... its relevant to understanding

foreign policy.