TX Poll Shows a Dead Heat: Clinton 46 Obama 45/IVR Poll: Clinton 50 Obama 45

[MadBadger]

Polls Show Tight Primary Race In Texas
By Eric Kleefeld - February 21, 2008, 3:43PM
Two new polls of Texas show the Democratic primary to be a dead heat, with Hillary Clinton grabbing a narrow lead. Seattle-based Constituent Dynamics, in a poll commissioned for a local TV station, gives Hillary 46% to Barack Obama's 45%. Texas-based IVR has Hillary at 50% to Obama's 45%.

The IVR poll went one step beyond simple statewide polling, and assigned delegates based on the state Senate districts where respondents lived. The result was a bare eight-delegate edge for Hillary from the primary, hinting that she could be in trouble even if that lead holds up — one-third of the Texas delegates will be won in caucuses held later that night, a setting in which the Hillary camp has had a lot of trouble organizing effectively.


http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/polls_show_tight_primary_race.php

[book_worm]

1. Ok, all the polls are closing in TX. I think Obama can even win the popular vote

and if he does he will no doubt also take the delegate count.

[hogwyld]

2. To Plagiarize.... Ruh Roh!

Firewall is looking pretty leaky at the moment.

[Yurem2008]

8. Firewall? Don't make me laugh Hillary

it sounds to me like a firesale by the time it is over in OH and TX

[PresidentObama]

3. OK, that's not good.

[MadBadger]

6. Marc Ambinder said major national polls are coming at 5PM showing a tie in TX

I wonder if he was referring to Rasmussen and these two polls. Im waiting until 5PM to see about the others.

[Yurem2008]

13. Prediction? She'll be blown away in TX

[MadBadger]

15. Id guess 55-45 Obama

[jackson_dem]

4. How many caucuses did she really compete in, though?

Nevada was one both put a lot of resources into and she won. I don't necessarily buy the idea she is inherently unable to win caucuses, although caucuses do favor money and energetic supporters more than primaries. This is why Ron Paul's best states were all caucuses (lost Washington by only 6% and finished second in Montana).

[MadBadger]

7. That was a major strategic error of her's.

[cali]

10. Her campaign didn't even understand

how the Texas Primary/Caucus worked until a couple of days ago- by their own admission. Obama's been working his ground game in TX for a couple of weeks. Her campaign is short on money and historically, in this campaign, she's run a lousy grond game.

[jackson_dem]

19. Damn. Then she's screwed in Texas unless something big happens

I heard Obama has 150,000 volunteers in Texas. Is this true?

[thevoiceofreason]

27. We have a lot, but not that many.

We'll have quite a few feet on the ground this weekend, knocking on doors and giving rides to ev polls.

[cali]

29. It's true. someone posted the article about a few days ago. n/t

[madrchsod]

21. they just found out the latino districts will not count as much

as other districts. she can win the popular vote and lose a lot of delegates. ohio will be the true test

[anigbrowl]

25. Obama working ground game for a couple of weeks - not true

http://texansforobama.typepad.com/blog/obama_visits_texas/index.html

Take a look at the photos - ~22,000 people at a Texas Rally. Nice ground game!

Now look at the date - 2/23/07. *2007*.

This blew me away yesterday. The current momentum is built on groundwork that was started a full year ago. And I'd bet a dollar that this time last year the Obama campaign team had already studied up on the delegate math for Texas and made plans about what they need to do to succeed there.

They say that chance favors the prepared mind. Had the Obama campaign foundered in Iowa or on Super Tuesday, then much of this advance work would have been for nothing (or at best, a possible 2012 run). To many people, investing so heavily must have seemed foolish and a waste of resources. The Obama campaign is reaping the harvest that they began sowing a long time back.

Meantime, the Clinton campaign appears to be trying to grow a ground operation from scratch; by their own admission, they didn't plan to be fighting in Texas until a few weeks back. I don't think that a 2-month-old state campaign is going to beat one that was started a full year ago.

[cali]

thanks. I stand corrected.

amazing organization.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. Obama won Nevada.

by one delegate, FYI.

[rox63]

16. That's the problem - She should have been ready to compete everywhere n/t

[thevoiceofreason]

26. I thought Obama got more delegates in Nevada?

[cali]

5. And he's three points back in the new Rasmussen

released this afternoon. Let's hope he has a good debate tonight and a good one next week in OH. He can win TX.

[Thrill]

9. Wow. When Obama hits your town the Polls change

[Connie_Corleone]

11. Hillary: "REMEMBER THE ALAMO!!"

[blogslut]

12. I love what the fellow from IVR said

"Anyone who claims to know what Democratic turnout will be is lying..."

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=36&Itemid=1

[madrchsod]

17. dead heat-obama wins more delegates

[NJSecularist]

18. Hillary wins the Latino vote 75-23 according to this poll

Obama needs to make in-roads among Latinos to win the state. If he can get 40% of Latinos, he will win the state, IMO.

[MadBadger]

20. You are talking about the IVR poll, and I dont understand their numbers

They have Latinos going to Hillary by that, while Obama gets 75 percent of blacks, and Hillary leads 52-38 of white voters. So I'm not sure I understand the 5 point Hillary margin.

[NJSecularist]

30. Me either.

I input some numbers into my spreadsheet and tried to figure out how they got Hillary winning by a 5 point margin, and I couldn't figure it out.

I wish they had more clear crosstabs.

[madrchsod]

24. the latino districts will not have enough delegates to match

the delegates in the districts obama will win...

[anigbrowl]

28. Apparently not, but Obama must still court their vote

His campaign is about including everyone, so I don't think they will just sit back and say 'well we win in the black districts and those count for more'. He seems just as eager to address the Latino community as his own 'base', which is a good thing. After all, he will still need those votes and organizers come election time if he is the nominee. I haven't heard the Obama campaign saying 'XYZ group/state doesn't count' about anyone.

[NJSecularist]

31. Well, he probably doesn't have to worry about the delegate math

But I'm pretty sure he wants to win this state to finally end Hillary's campaign. And he needs to make in-roads with Latinos.

[woolldog]

33. EVERYONE counts; everyone is important

He wants to be everyone's president. He is going to court the Latino vote and try to explain his vision to them.

[hogwyld]

22. I have a feeling that the Clinton machine

will pull out ALL the stops in TX/OH. I'm sure they're calling all their favors, cashing in all their chips. The question is what they will actually do. Will they try to suppress the black vote? Make up some bogus news item the weekend before the election?

[scheming daemons]

23. One word: Diebold

(especially in Ohio)

[bluestateguy]

32. Obama could narrowly lose the primary & make up the delegate deficit by smashing her in the caucus

Or even win the delegate count in the primary, given the convoluted rules they have there.

[Scurrilous]

34. K & R

:thumbsup: