Has any Presidential candidate won 11 straight primaries and LOST the nomination?

[robertpaulsen]

It's now eleven consecutive primary victories for Obama, including the overseas primary:

http://www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/Obama_wins_global_primary_02212008.html

I don't count Clinton out by a long shot, if anyone can come back from being down so long, bet on Clinton. My point is that I think it would be the greatest political comeback in American history if she pulled it off.

So for you history buffs out there, has it ever happened before? Has any candidate running for President ever won 11 consecutive primaries but ultimately was NOT nominated by their party for President?

[Captain Hilts]

1. Depends on the states...he hasn't won TX, CA, MI, FL, OH, PA, NY, or NJ. nt

[scheming daemons]

3. Again with the "only some states matter" theme.....

...this is extremely offensive to citizens of the other 80% of the states.

[Captain Hilts]

6. It's just a mindfuck to me that this is possible. nt

[stevenleser]

26. Why? Should we have instead a nomination process counting only those states?

I dont understand your conundrum. this is the system we have. you have to win more delegates than the other person.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

37. Those are the states with the most delegates. You can't win without them.

You can't win with the little states that don't have many delegates. A Dem will not get the reddest states.

[Arkana]

38. What makes you think that he wouldn't win them in the GE?

Most of the larger states are faithfully Democratic, no matter who the nominee is. Why are you so convinced that Saint Hillary is the only one who can win them?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

41. I'm not saying she is - Obama hopefully can win a lot of them.

It just seems that she will do better in the larger purple states. Those are the key to winning the election. I switched from being and Edwards supporter to being a very lukewarm Hillary supporter.

I worry about Obama - I just don't think he has enough national security experience to win. The Repubs fight dirty and you can count on some "terrorist" event to just happen to come up right before election time.

The other thing I'm worried about is that the media has not been reporting anything negative about Obama. I've seen it where they have built up a Dem candidate and then turned on them in the General Election. What can they really dig up about Hillary? They will harp on his lack of experience, how he is the "most liberal senator" a-la Kerry, McGovern, Mondale (that's something that's already been stated many times). That flies with the Dems but NOT with moderates and independants.

He is also weak with women's issues and they are another key to the election.

If I were convinced that he had the best chance in the General - I would be a lot more for him.

[JimGinPA]

5. But He Will In The GE...

You've posted this same thing in several threads but it's a false argument.

[robertpaulsen]

9. What depends? Either it's happened before or it hasn't. n/t

[book_worm]

13. and MI and FL were not competitive races no delegates were divided.

[bunnies]

18. And TX, OH, and PA havent even voted yet.

But you know... CA, NY, NJ and MA are the only ones that count. Its a crazy world we're living in.

[Spider Jerusalem]

31. No-one won Michigan and Florida, because there were no valid primaries there.

Nice try, though.

[anigbrowl]

34. Clinton hasn't won OH, TX or PA either.

If this is a mindfuck to you, I'm sorry to hear it. But reality and imagination don't always match up, and when they disagree, reality always wins.

[Thrill]

2. There is something called Super Delegates

and the Establishment. Thats how it can happen.

[robertpaulsen]

12. As I said in my OP, I'm well aware a Clinton comeback can happen.

But has there ever been a comeback that big previously? How many primaries did Ted Kennedy win in 1980? Has there ever been any situation remotely similar in the last 40 years?

[book_worm]

15. believe me, in the end the super delgeates will jump on the bandwagon of the person with the

momentum and who looks like they will be the strongest candidate against McCain. That's the thing about the Super Delegates they are not beholden to any candidate. We are already seeing some HRC "super delegates" jumping ship to Obama.

[jasmine621]

4. First time for everything. nt

[JorgeTheGood]

7. Obama wins are caucus and open primary states

not primary states ... big diff.

[scheming daemons]

11. Obama has won FIVE closed primary states, Clinton has won FOUR.

nice try.

[robertpaulsen]

14. Big diff? How does that address my question? n/t

[CK_John]

8. It was convention voting only until the reforms after '72/'76 came into play, no tract record. n/t

[robertpaulsen]

17. How about afterward?

I was three years old in 1976, so no memories of that. But I do recall Senator Kennedy ran against Carter in the primaries of 1980, if I'm not mistaken. Do you remember how well he did, or any subsequent elections in the Eighties?

[CK_John]

21. I think the SD won that one for Carter. n/t

[Spider Jerusalem]

32. There were no superdelegates then.

not until 1982.

[CK_John]

33. Your right, just remembered something about some Gov and Congress reps not getting elected delegates

[robertpaulsen]

43. Or maybe you were thinking 1984. Looks like Gary Hart won 26 states.

But when all was said and done, the SD won it for Mondale:

Hart and Mondale waged a seesaw battle (some states on the map above had split results, such as Wisconsin where Mondale won the caucus and Hart the primary) but Mondale won key victories in New York and Pennsylvania by stealing Wendy's ad line "where's the beef" to describe Hart's platform (Remember that one? It was the "Whassssup!" of the era)*. Hart won narrowly in Ohio and Indiana, and took California in the last day of primary voting, but could not prevent Mondale from acquiring a majority of the delegates. Mondale always had an advantage in delegate allocation because of rules such as 'superdelegates' set up to favor an establishment front-runner against an upstart (see the 1972 fiasco), although it should be added that the Democratic party's primary and caucus process is often far less 'rigged' to produce a quick victory than that of the Republicans.

Mondale went on to be humiliated on a McGovernesque scale by promising to raise taxes (Really!).

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1984.html

[Bake]

10. Wow. Maybe history WILL be made ...

Bake

[SKKY]

16. I think it's important to note, and perhaps more telling than anything....

...that HRC hasn't won a single primary/caucus since Edwards dropped out and it was just her against Obama.

[robertpaulsen]

19. Wait a minute. Didn't Edwards drop out before Feb. 5?

I know, I'm being technical, but I've seen people on this forum get crucified for less.

[SKKY]

20. You're right. What I should have said was...

...since Edwards name was removed from the ballot. When it was only those two, Obama has won each time. Obviously, HRC won a few of the Super Tuesday contests, and Edwards dropped out on Jan 30th. Thanks for pointing that out. :thumbsup:

[CK_John]

22. He didn't drop out, but suspended to hold his delegates or get back in. n/t

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

23. Here's another question...

Has any presidential primary candidate won NY, CA, and NJ and lost the nomination?

[stevenleser]

25. its not an invalid question, but dont you think you should try to answer the OPs question

before asking another?

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

28. I would if I could n/t

[karynnj]

27. NJ used to be in June - so I doubt it

[robertpaulsen]

36. Yes. Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980.

Been doing a little research. I'm not sure if he won 10 or 11 in a row (or anywhere close), but he definitely won NY, CA, and NJ and lost the nomination to President Carter.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1980.html

[ContinentalOp]

39. This is the first year that CA has been relevant for a long time.

Don't know about the other states.

[mohc]

40. Yes

Kennedy won NY, CA, and NJ in 1980. In fact Carter lost those 3 states in both primaries and still won the nomination.

[stevenleser]

24. Is anyone going to give a straight answer to Robert's question?

I cant believe all of these posts offering spin and no direct response.

i will try to research this Robert, might be a few days for me as i am overseas on a trip and using a foreign language keyboard (argh) in an internet cafe. I highly doubt that anyone has won 11 straight contests and lost the nomination. most contests dont outlive super tuesday.

[robertpaulsen]

42. Thank you, stevenleser.

I appreciate your interest and I share your doubt. I haven't been able to find any evidence that this occurred in the past.

[rug]

29. Humphrey won none.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

30. Not since 1968

Wikipedia gives state by state info starting from 1968, but I don't know about before then.

Edit: someone said it was convention only before then and no records are available, so I guess the answer is no.

[Exilednight]

35. You are partially correct. A small handful of states held primaries, but most did not.

[robertpaulsen]

44. My research indicates the answer is NO.

The longest run of consecutive primary victories for any candidate post-1972 who didn't capture the nomination is six for Gary Hart in 1984. According to the map on this link, Hart took 26 states but Mondale had more delegates.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1984.html