my 2-cents, penny for your thoughts and GOPers keep the change

[radfringe]

not a done deal yet, still have Texas and Ohio as major players, and to a lesser degree Pennsylvania, but Obama is on a roll, and Clinton is faltering.

the biggest "complaint" I keep hearing over and over again from people in my neck of the woods is the incessant and annoying attacks and smear. It's turning many people off, although dem participation in the primaries/caucuses are setting records and are more than doubled repub participation - the longer the mud throwing goes on the less enthusiastic people become.

The campaign for the general election is going to get muddy and dirty enough. GOPers are cornered, and they know it. They are also wounded greatly by bush's record - and that makes them extremely dangerous.

Specific to each of candidates - the concern with Obama is his age/experience. whereas the concern with Clinton is that she's a GOP-attack magnet and if president will have to spend 90% of the time fending off the GOPers as opposed to doing her job. Whether or not you agree with these assessments is besides the point - this is how the general public sees it.

according to the ARG poll - bush is at 19% approval.
overall average has him at 29% approval ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ )

McCain is in the catbird's seat. his only competition is Huckabee, and not a serious one at this point. This give mccain at least a 4-month head start on framing and running his general election campaign while Obama and Clinton are still attacking each other.
McCain has already started attacking Obama based on the assumption that Obama will be the dem nominee

The recent story about mcCain's affair is going to fizzle - mccain is not running on family values at this point (depending on his choice for VP that may change), and we've been there, done that, bought the t-shirt and wore it out during Bill Clinton's term.

McCain's weak point is BUSH, and mccain's gravitation toward 'staying the course' with bush's policies - not only in regards to Iraq, but also with the economy, energy/fuel, health care and social security - big domestic issues.

Obama and Clinton have to turn their attention to McCain NOW and define him as MORE-OF-THE-SAME-MCCAIN.

just as many of us say - once there's a dem nominee the party will rally around him/her, the same thing is happening now with mccain as the presumptive GOPer nominee. GOPers may hold their noses in november, but they will and are coalescing around mccain and they are doing it NOW.

the general concern is not which dem candidate has a better plan for doing 'x' - it's which one can beat mccain and turn this country around. yes, it's ELECTABILITY, and all the more reason for Obama and Clinton to start drawing contrasts between themselves and MORE-OF-THE-SAME-MCCAIN.

I'm sure some of you are aware of the general opinions being expressed regarding the caliber of posts in the GD-P, if not then take a few moments and browse through the GD and Lounge forums. the same attitude towards the GDP that exists on the DU at large, is the same attitude the general public has of Obama V Clinton.

Frankly, I don't care who started what first - that's crap you hear on a grammer school playground. I'm interested in getting the country back on the right road - and that means kicking MORE-OF-THE-SAME-MCCAIN's ass.

well, that's my 2-cents, you can grab a penny for your thoughts, but if it's the same old crap - then GOPers will keep the change and the whitehouse

[cali]

1. good piece, but I don't quite agree with you on

McCain. I disagree that he's in the catbird seat. I think the NYT story is important. Not because of the sex thing, but because it peels away the upright, maverick facade, and gives the dems a clear path for attacking him on his strength- character. In addition, I still firmly believe that a number of social conservative simply will sit it out. And he can't keep veering recklessly to the right in the general. That's simply not an option for him. Furthermore, he has other, more amorphous weaknesses- his age, his health, his temper. He's flip flopped on one issue after another as well. I see him as far less formidable than you do. And he's not good on the stump or in debates. Yeah, he's got weaknesses to exploit, including nothing close to Obama's ground game. (Yes, I think Obama will be our nominee) We've finally caught up with and surpassed the GOP GOTV. So though much of the party may coalesce behind McCain, it won't be with enthusiams and significant numbers may not join in.

Obama and Clinton have both been going after McCaine, and I expect that to amplify in the coming days. In the meantime, I don't think the NYT story is over yet. We'll see in the next few days.

And sorry, I disagree that the attitude on DU is reflective in the real world. It's certainly not what I see, and it's not reflected in polls and analysis which consistently say that 80% of dems are excited about both candidates.

[radfringe]

2. no excitement in my neck of the woods

that I can see... just lots of people ready to hold their noses when going to vote

mccain is in the catbird seat as far as securing the GOPer nomination. there are no other candidates out there for GOPers to fall back on, and they'd be shooting themselves in the face if some backroom deal was done to oust mccain at the convention and substitute somebody else

sex thing story - big yawn from people I've talked too. so he had an affair - they all have affairs, they are all crooks.. - this is how it's resonating in my area.

as far as mccain being a maverick, giving the 'independent' image - the best way to squash that is to tie bush around his neck like an albatross - something obama and clinton have both failed to do in a consistent manner because they are too busy flameing each other

[cali]

3. Again, it's not the sex thing

it's the lobbyist/corruption thing. And it provides a huge opening. Dems are taking it. See the recent interview with Howard Dean.

In my neck of the woods- and granted it's Vermont where people are very politically involved- people are definitely excited. I'm sure part of it is that we've never had the opportunity to participate in a primary that counts. But anecdotal evidence is just that, and Pew's Andrew Kohut and other analysts and polls are a far better gauge of dem voter opinion.

There's still time, and plenty of it, for the nominee to go after McCain. If it's not settled by March 6 we might have problems. We don't now, and both candidates are going after McCain. The bush/mccain connection is one avenue of attack but I'm in the minority here- I don't think it's the only one, or even the best one.

Also McCain may not be allowed to opt out of the public financing agreement he made. In that case he has virtually no money to compete until after the convention.

I think you're vastly overestimating how formidable McCain is. He has deep flaws and organiztional/finance problems, not to mention that dems have turned out in huge numbers this year and repukes have not been able to keep up.

[radfringe]

4. it's not the sex thing

but that's how it's being seen by the general public, and it's being played as an attack on mccain by the "libruls"

mccain is formiable because the dems keep eating their own

[cali]

5. Nah, we're really not eating our own

no real damage has been done to either Clinton or Obama at this point. Dems are united, and McCain is a weak candidate. It's good not to become complacent, but this country is in the midst of a sea change. Pendulums always swing. Governing philosophies always come in and out of fashion. The repub party is in real trouble- just as the dem party was for a number of years.

[rasputin1952]

7. W/o a complete overhaul, the GOP is not just going to lose

the presidential race, but a large # of seats in both houses. My rep won by about 5 points last election, down from 45 points when he first ran; the R's are losing ground, they have nothing, and they know it. He's going for a 3rd term, and we don't even have candidate yet, and he's running scared; just announced he's for "fiscal reform", this is new for a "bush-bot rubber stamper", he knows he's in trouble...even w/o an opponent!

[rasputin1952]

6. I'm out here in NE, and rarely does it get a deeper shade of red

than around here, but the people who would normally support an R, are amazingly silent. The biggest anchor that McCain, or any R has has is bush, he has become the depth charge in this race, as everything he has bungled has a residual effect for the GOP as a whole.

McCain is in deep trouble; he's about as charismatic as a piece of paper, and much of what he has said has resonated as essentially insane by the R's around here. There was almost an audible groan when the "100 Years War" stuff popped out of his mouth, and the local R's have never been so disillusioned as they are this time around. Under normal circumstances, I would actually feel for sorry for the local GOP, but after the bush "wins", all I can do is sit back and smile at their demise. FWIW, no one see's McCain as a "family values" shill, they know he's flawed, it is the fact that the GOP had/has simply the worst candidates possible. It has been ab absurd "race" and there is quite simply no GOP candidate that could get much further that "honorable mention" that they even attempted to win the GE.

As for HRC/Obama...Obama is holding the lead here, but there is intense respect for HRC out there, and that can turn things if Obama gets a little "too" comfortable with his lead. Most of us are following this whole thing pretty closely, and while both candidates have good points, they also have some flaws that need to be addressed. However, the only ones that are pushing what I consider
the usual, "I have nothing else so I'll just go negative" in my neck of the woods are the usual suspects, the R's. Nebraskans may be a lot of things, but they are a practical people if nothing else. Whether D or R, they actually do look at issues and everyone is really waiting to hear what the candidates have to say about cleaning up the mess that bush is leaving behind. Two things dominate out here, the war, and the economy. Virtually everyone wants out of the war, and that looming $10 trillion debt are serious matters out here. If either D candidate can address these matters w/some form of reality, they will take this state, and most likely, the rest of the Midwest.

[cali]

8. that's fascinating to me.

You made my jaw drop when you said it's possible that if a dem adequately addresses the most serious issues facing this country, NE will go dem.

I live in what must be the polar opposite of NE. The only thing I think Nebraskans and Vermonters have in common is that there are on awful lost of people in both states who are concerned with rural issues. But even here where I am, in the heart of Vermont's most rural region, where people frequently do vote repub, there's a strong antipathy toward letting any republican gain entrance to the White House.

McCain's flaws are just beginning to be showcased. The mask of an ethical maverick is a sham and should be removed- the sooner the better. I also think his age and health work against him, as does his sharp turn to the right in the primaries.

I can't think of anything that would give me more political pleasure than seeing NE go dem. Hell, I'd get a kick out of just seeing McCain held to a 5 pt margin of victory.

Let's hope that the dem nominee goes to Nebraska and addresses the vital issues you brought up.

[rasputin1952]

9. The last time the GOP lost big out here was long before I

came to the state...Johnson's landslide back in '64.

But today, the disillusionment is so deep, I can't picture any R getting above "Noxious Weed Controller", the one elected official that appears to be safe.

There is virtually NO support for an R out here, even Johanns, the former Gov is running on exceptionally thin ice. There is a deep mistrust for the GOP these days, the neo-cons, after being exposed as complete loons, have no hold out here any longer. The farmers are not doing well, and since just about everything is dependant upon agriculture in this state, there is a definite move away from the R camp. The price of corn has spiked, and this was good for the farmer, but because of that, everything else has skyrocketed. no one likes paying over a buck for white or wheat bread, and the price of dairy, eggs and just about everything else is crippling the economy out here. People are realizing that the policies that came out of the bush admin have done little more than put this nation on the fast lane to ruin, and they are not about to support something like that again. If bush were to come out and openly support McCain...McCain's rating out here would drop to the single digits, (it's in the high 20's/low 30's right now). Another thing that Nebraskans haven't been able to forgive either McCain or bush for, is the slams they made at Bob Kerry years ago. Kerry, being an extremely popular true war hero, was the target of smears about his military service; but that left a seriously noxious taste among the population...one does not bash an individual who lost a leg and was awarded the MOH, especially when said individual was a popular Gov and Senator...but bush and McCain thought they could back in '99.

Like I say, Nebraskans may have some serious problems in some areas, but they are exceptionally practical, and they are seeing McCain as nothing more than an ancient "bushite"...when he brought up the scenario of "the Hundred Year War", he lost 35-50% of whatever support he might have gotten.

One other thing...when we had our caucus, we expected some 30-35 people...we got well over 350 in our county alone. I thought the walls were going to burst out and we were going to spill out onto the go;f course. i saw a t least 7 people change from R to D, and there were some 40 first time voter registrations. Best thing of all, and something all of us geezers thought, was that there were so many young people getting involved. Generally, it is just us that have fought these battles for many years, but seeing younger faces gave me new hope for this nation...:D