Whatever happened to Hillary?

[bklyncowgirl]

Just six months ago, anyone handicapping the Democratic Primary field would have been perfectly reasonable in saying that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic Party nominee. Inevitable was the word. She had the polls, the money, the battle tested campaign staff and the organization best of all she had BILL. Barack Obama was green and had never been in a real political fight. John Edwards was yesterdays news. Bill Richardson turned out to be a highly qualified amiable dud. Biden and Dodd never had a shot. Dennis Kucinich was--Dennis Kucinich. Mike Gravel was the crazy uncle in the attic.

Today she's down in the delegate count, rumors are flying that her campaign is in disarray, and Obama is coming on strong.

What on earth happened to Hillary?

The Inevitability Strategy: Hillary's strategy was to present herself as the inevitable nominee. She'd win Iowa with her name recognition and superior organization, sweep on to New Hampshire and Nevada, win Florida and Michigan then seal the deal on Super Tuesday. After that she'd be the nominee--just like John Kerry was in 2004. This turned out to be an arrogant assumption. She got beat in Iowa, won New Hampshire and Nevada, Florida and Michigan. Unfortunately for her the latter two states didn't count. She got her head handed to her by Obama in South Carolina. Super Tuesday turned out to be a draw. It was on to Plan B--but her highly vaunted and highly paid team of strategists didn't have a Plan B.

Howard Dean: One key event in the process occurred in 2005 when Howard Dean, despite the opposition of the Democratic establishment and the Clintons in particular, was elected DNC Chair. A friend in the Chairman's seat would have been a big help to any candidate. Why else would operatives allied with the Clintons such as James Carville try to oust Dean after his 50 State Strategy helped the Democrats win back both the House and the Senate. In Dean, the Clintons not only got someone who was not in their pocket, they got someone who was determined to keep the playing field level for all candidates and make everybody, including Hillary Clinton, play by the rules. When Florida and Michigan voted to hold their primaries before DNC rules permitted, Dean dropped the hammer. Hillary won Florida and Michigan but it was a shadow victory--the delegates would not be seated--and Hillary ended up looking like someone who believed that the rules do not apply to her. Dean of course has been scrupulously impartial in public but I would imagine that his name is not uttered in Clinton campaign headquarters without a few words you can't say on TV surrounding it.

Bill Clinton: Bill Clinton, the ex-president beloved of Democrats and acknowledged to be the best strategist in the Democratic Party has turned out, to put it mildly--not exactly helpful. He backfired in his role as attack dog and somehow keeps stepping all over her message. Is Bill secretly in league with Obama? I could almost imagine the two of them meeting in a booth in a dimly lit bar somewhere in Iowa...."Hey Barack, I got a problem..."

Hillary's Handlers: Democratic political strategists have a history of strangling their candidates to the point where the most appealing parts of their personalities and messages are submerged beneath poll tested and packaged presentations. Hillary Clinton seems to be a victim of this. On the few occasions that what people who know her say is her real personality breaks through she does well. Most of the time though she's been reciting a long list of programs, attacks and achievements that seem to fall flat.

The Media: The mainstream media at first seemed to be promoting Clinton's inevitability strategy--all but crowning her nominee before a single vote had been cast--Howard Dean could have warned her about that. After Iowa, the media had a new story. OBAMA! He's young! He's black and he's exciting! Suddenly it was a REAL RACE! The media, ever a sucker for a charmer with a ready smile fell head over heels in love with the young man from Illinois.

Barack Obama: The Chicago Kid has turned out to be the best natural politician since, well, Bill Clinton. Not only that, he's turned out to have a hide made out of the purest teflon. I've suggested before that her handlers must feel like the trainers of a race horse named Sham. Sham was a good horse who faced a great race horse (and genetic freak) named Secretariat in the 1973 Triple Crown series. Sham's trainer thought they could run Secretariat off his feet. The end was not pretty for poor Sham as he staggered to the end of the Belmont stakes, dead last, never to race again. Or maybe they feel like friends of Salieri being confronted with the arrival of a kid named Mozart at what was to now, his court. What's equally important is that Obama, the old community organizer, has managed to build a grass roots organization that has not only outperformed the Clinton machine but has shown that despite his lack of experience, Barack Obama is a pretty damn good manager who knows how to pick and inspire people.

Hillary Clinton: She's ultimately the one responsible for the tone and direction of her campaign.

Flame away, folks or add your own thoughts.

[opihimoimoi]

1. PUB OPs might have invaded her org...spies/trolls/ etc...Rove and boys are Masters

[bklyncowgirl]

3. I don't know, I think these wounds were self-inflicted. nt

[polpilot]

6. Carville could have taken them to the WH for $800K. The Clintons have ALWAYS needed guidance

and this time Bill thought he was glib and 'smart enuff' to not need Carville's help. Big mistake.

[bklyncowgirl]

12. They spent a hell of a lot more than $800,000 for the jokers they have.

Cheapness had nothing to do with it.

[polpilot]

33. Not cheapness, STUPIDNESSS. Carville knows the Clintons best. He

would have ended Bill's participation the first day. Bill knew this. Bill, the king, a person not smart at all. Not smart at all (Save the academics & presidential election, Chimpy did too) Bill, red faced, finger pointing, hillbillyish, excellent in Arkansas polkitics has never understood that the camera is always on. He could never have won the '92 election w/o Carville. Carville would have run an A+ campaign which is what wqas required.

[fadedrose]

40. Bottom line

If Hillary were not married to Bill Clinton, her running for president would never have gotten off the ground. She would not even have made Senator of NY. Bill can't be blamed for her campaign.

What Carville, Hillary and Bill can't understand is that people want change, real change.

To repeat, 4 years of Bush, 8 years of Clinton, and 8 years of Bush are ENOUGH. No campaign could change that.

Whatever way they come up with to win/steal delegates, the majority of the people want CHANGE. That's the main reason Obama is doing so well, not to mention he's smart, likable and can do a lot of healing both here and abroad.

[bklyncowgirl]

46. That's another good point--voters say "A plague on both their Houses" nt

[iconocrastic]

69. Shingles?

[bvar22]

65. Carville was busy.

He was in South America working to overthrow democraticly elected governments and install right wing dictators.

[polpilot]

71. I guess a job's a job???? Wasn't aware of his new entanglements.

[bvar22]

76. Carville in Venezuela

"What Carville didn’t say was that he worked in Venezuela as an advisor to Venezuelan opposition groups leading an economically devastating strike by managers of the national oil company in an effort to destabilize the government (Washington Post, 1/20/03)."

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3009


On Edit:
I used to like Carville.
I found him entertaining on Crossfire, one of the few cable shows that would actually attacked Republicans at that time.
I have since lost all respect for him.

His allegiance is NOT to democracy, justice, or even the Democratic Party.
His allegiance is to whoever pays him the BIG bucks, just like a Blackwater thug.

[crispini]

70. Carville has lost his edge too.

Check out this story:

Carville, Matalin say primary season 'incomprehensible'

(snip)
"Every single initial strategy of this amazing primary season of every candidate on both sides has failed," Matalin said. "The reason is the same for the pundits and the strategists -- we don't know what we are doing in this cycle."

There are no templates or models that can account for the massive increase in interest and voter turnout during the primaries, Matalin said.

Carville agreed, noting that the turnout numbers defy explanation. "What we are watching is not historic, what we are watching is not groundbreaking. What we are watching is incomprehensible."

(snip)
http://www.semissourian.com/story/1312657.html

See, that's just stupid. What we're seeing right here is a combination of Dean's 50 state strategy starting to pay off, plus a political genius grassroots guy like Obama who knows how to organize, and knows George Lakoff, plus the internet. The fact that Carville doesn't see that just means he's lost his touch.

[polpilot]

73. You're right. I guess too long in D.C. and their insulation from working

Americans is complete. So it was somewhat hopeless for Clinton all along.

[lisa58]

77. They are both ridiculous...

...they really don't know how bad this administration is or how much it inspires the rest of us to take our country back.

[XemaSab]

80. This is the problem I've had with virtually every politician since '00

Kerry, Clinton.... I don't think they get that the Chimp isn't just someone that the democrats have a few policy differences with, but that he's antithetical to everything we stand for as a party and as a country.

[bklyncowgirl]

83. Yes, very few of them "Get it" nt

[Independent-Voter]

4. Get out the tin foil!

Face it - the more people are exposed to HRC, the less they like her. It's that simple.

Granted, it hasn't helped that Obama has run a masterful campaign, but she started with every possible advantage and got her ass handed to her.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

29. I disagree to some extent.

I think the more people are exposed to her campaign the less they like her. It really does have a We Are Going to Do This The Way It's Always Been Done Before vibe to it.

[jgraz]

44. I totally agree!!! The PUBS have long had a SECRET organization to undermine our candidates

It's called the DLC.

[Arugula Latte]

57. Thank you, jgraz!

:applause:

[saltpoint]

2. I suggest to those considering a subscription to NEWSWEEK that they

keep their money and read this poster's DU threads instead.

They'll learn a hell of a lot more and save some cash in the bargain.

This one's a keeper, bklyncowgirl.

_ _ _ _ _
P.S. (Some of my best friends are crazy uncles in the attic!)

[bklyncowgirl]

5. I love crazy uncle Mike too--I miss him in the debates. nt

[Independent-Voter]

7. Great post BTW.

[bklyncowgirl]

9. Thanks, it's quite a story but one as old as the hills. The Greeks called it Hubris. nt

[saltpoint]

10. the Greeks! What the hell?! The GREEKS?! What did THEY ever know about

democracy???

O, wait...

[Independent-Voter]

14. HRC's campaign is going to be an excellent case study in poly sci classes for years on how to do

everything wrong. It's amazing how badly she misread this political season.

[Arugula Latte]

59. Mmmmm. Hubris.

I love to spread it on my pita bread at Greek restaurants. :9

;)

[bklyncowgirl]

61. Yum nt

[Occam Bandage]

8. Better than I have any right to expect from DU. Thank you.

[Captain Hilts]

11. Early surveys are purely name recognition. Playing by RNC or old DNC rules, she'd have it sewn up.

[bklyncowgirl]

13. That's true, ask "President" Guiliani. nt

[Captain Hilts]

67. Yep. nt

[Mother Of Four]

15. Personally...

I posted a while back, about being worried that HRC would win the nomination. I can't remember who responded, but it was an incredibly well thought out response who's gist was this...

Maybe there IS no "Clinton Machine" ...maybe its all flames and sparkles.

If you look at the issues that plagued WJC during his run for President, and how everyone was astonished that he was "The comeback kid" ...it's glaringly obvious he won on one thing alone. Charisma.

Unfortunately for Hillary, she's shadowed by that. I've come to realize that she really is a smart woman, she just doesn't have alot of common sense. She relies too much on her "handlers" and not enough on herself, she is micromanaged. The voters see that, and it's a natural feeling that if her campaign is in trouble, if she's over polling and under personifying, if she's trying on new catch phrases like an actress tries on sunglasses...They don't want the country run that way.

Sadly, she doesn't have the charisma her husband did. (Did, because here recently I can't even listen to him. I cringe)

Hindsight is always 20/20, IF HRC had actually been herself from the start I think not only would I actually like her...but we would be saying "Madam President"

[bklyncowgirl]

19. You make some really good points.

Hillary Clinton is not a "natural" like her husband or Barack Obama. She has to work at it and maybe, just maybe, she trusts her advisors more than she trusts her instincts.

Remember too, Bill Clinton did not sail to the Democratic nomination in '92. He got routed in quite a few primaries by underfunded candidates like Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown. I think the model they were looking at was John Kerry in '04--they might have been better off looking at thier own past. Clearly they were not prepared for the likes of Barack Obama.

[TheZug]

16. The truth? "Ready on day one" is just words.

In reality she's not close to ready. Look at her trainwreck of a campaign.

I used to think she would at least be competent, even if I didn't care for her personally. Now the thought of her in the Oval Office scares the hell out of me.

[iconocrastic]

51. "just words" like everything else about her. "Change"? Don't make me laugh.

[lisa58]

17. I agree that Hillary is ultimately responsible for the campaign...

...and she is suffering from self-inflicted wounds.

The way I see it - Hillary is all policy. She based her campaign on my policies are better than Bushes policies, but she never understood how broken-hearted the democrats have been. Gore, Kerry war, just plain insanity coming from this administration.

Obama connects emotionally to our hurts and makes (at least me) feel like he gets it. Hillary never makes me feel like she gets it. It's like she's glad Gore and Kerry lost to give her her opportunity and doesn't mind the Bush administration because it works in her favor to be so much better than him.

[bklyncowgirl]

21. It reminds me of watching Kerry campaigning with Bruce Springsteen.

Bruce performed a few songs and then gave a brief but beautiful speech about "the country that lives in our hearts." He then introduced Kerry who launched into what was essentially a laundry list of programs that he hoped to bring to fruition should he be elected.

I remember thinking "John, fire your damn speechwriters and beg Bruce to write you a few good lines that could put all of your detailed proposals into perspective."

Hilary has the same problem. Too much prose not enough poetry. In this case the guy with the poetic voice is not a well-meaning ally, a singer with a gift for putting a lifetime into a two minute song, it's her opponent and the result has been devestating.

[workinclasszero]

25. ***Too much prose not enough poetry.***

I agree with that. Hillary comes across as a cold blooded policy wonk vs Obama's Elvis charisma!

That plus Hillary's arrogant inevitability campaign with a dash of voting for the bankruptcy bill and authorizing King George's war was what did in the lady.

IMHO of course.:)

[iconocrastic]

53. Hillary's will to power is just no reason to vote for her

So she feels entitled to be president.... ?

That's a hell of a message to sell.

No matter how much you pay for consultants.

Bottom line, the message is Hillary.

Yuk.

[iconocrastic]

55. Hillary's will to power is just no reason to vote for her

So she feels entitled to be president.... ?

That's a hell of a message to sell.

No matter how much you pay for consultants.

Bottom line, the message is Hillary.

Yuk.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

18. Positioning as inevtiable was smart. Believing your own rhetoric, not so smart.

[northernsoul]

20. add Mark Penn and her IWR vote to that list

n/t

[bklyncowgirl]

22. Of course I forgot the IWR. I include Mark Penn along with her advisors.

Too many voters couldn't get around her vote for the IWR and her steadfast refusal to admit she'd made a mistake.

[jgraz]

35. Not to nitpick on such a fine post, but Penn deserves a paragraph all to himself

When you pay Blackwater's PR flack 6 million dollars for the world's crappiest advice, that casts some serious doubts on your judgment as an executive.

[bklyncowgirl]

37. Well that is true--call him the six million dollar hack.

I hope she asks for her money back.

[aaronbees]

23. I like the Sham and Secretariat comparison...

There's certainly no shame in being likened to Sham, for he was an excellent racehorse who in many other years could've had a shot at the Triple Crown. Likewise, I think Sen. Clinton would win the nomination and a general election (2004, for example?) if she hadn't run into Barack Obama as her opponent this round. His skills and galvanizing energy combined with her campaign handlers' tone deaf fecklessness have really sunk her, IMO, and though I have been disgusted at times with her campaign I do think she'd make a decent president and a smart one. I think Obama has caught the right energy at the right moment in history, and there's not much else to say other than that. Now, that said, I don't think Obama's gonna finish the delegate equivalent of 31 lengths ahead as the great Secretariat did in the Belmont. But I think he's looking good in the homestretch, and the cheers for a Democratic president in the White House are going to be getting louder in the next race.

Great assessment as always, bklyncowgirl.

[bklyncowgirl]

31. Thanks, but of course the great Secretariat could be beat.

As I said in a post yesterday, there was a trainer named Allen Jerkens who did it twice with very ordinary horses. The theory is that Jerkens studied Secretariat and realized that the big horse preferred to let the other horses leave the starting gate first especially if it was a big field (the result of an accident in his first race), lurk behind the field and make his big move at the end. Jerkens had his jockeys go to the lead and then slow the pace. If the pace was slow enough, Secretariat would get bored and almost forget he was in a race. Since he wasn't a horse who would respond to anything more than a polite suggestion from his jockey that it was time to get moving, with a little luck, such as Secretariat having a cold coming on --or no one else contesting the lead, or Secretariat deciding to run a different race as he did from time to time, the world's greatest racehorse could be caught flat footed.

Sham's trainer just kept throwing his horse against Secretariat, expecting the big chestnut to break, and in the end destroyed the best horse he ever trained. To do the guy justice, I don't think he realized what he was up against. I don't think anyone realized what Secretariat was until he died and they discovered that his heart was several times the size of a normal equine heart.

Of course my other theory is that the two dollar bets I placed on Secretariat in both those races were the kiss of death! I have that effect on political candidates too. Sorry Bill Richardson.

[progressive_realist]

24. I'll add bad timing to that list.

I tend to believe Tolstoy's theory of leadership. He claims that Napoleon used the same tactics and strategy in Russia that he had used everywhere else. But the exact same things that made him an unbeatable military genius in one set of circumstances made him lose an 800,000 man army in another. Success is always a combination of talents and circumstances, and the two cannot be separated.

I think Hillary's campaign would have done very well pre-George Bush. But Rove's tactics have scorched that earth. The American people don't respond well to those tactics anymore. Her attacks keep backfiring. What I don't understand is how she and her advisors couldn't see from the 2006 elections that the ground had shifted.

And it's not just that her campaign is no good. Clinton herself would not be a good President right now. She keeps talking about fighting -- fighting Republicans, fighting special interests, fighting the media. What she doesn't seem to realize is that the Republicans have surrendered the battlefield. They're retiring from Congress en masse and not even fielding a credible Presidential candidate. We get one free Presidential term to show that we can do a better job. That means restoring our international prestige, getting our economy back on track, rebuilding the American people's faith in their government, and, yes, creating hope for the future. Getting mired in the mud fighting yesterday's battles against a retreating enemy isn't going to accomplish any of those things and will surely lead to a resurgence of the Republicans.

[progressive_realist]

27. Apologies for the overuse of military metaphors.

I blame the subliminal effect of that Google ad at the bottom of the page. :P

[bklyncowgirl]

32. It's never a good idea to run against hope. nt

[iconocrastic]

56. "Don't get your hopes up - vote for me. I'll disappoint you, count on it."

[Arugula Latte]

62. Just to riff off of that "Rovian tactics don't work" thought...

This plays into Hillary's campaign's underestimation of the power of The Tubes of The Internets. Yeah, they understand that the web is hugely influential, but they really don't "get it" in an instinctive way like Obama, Obama's campaign, and Obama's supporters.

A huge national conversation is going on behind her back and the backs of the other candidates. Millions of us can compare notes instantly. Instead of just absorbing a TV commercial, we can instantly turn to a friend and say: "You buyin' this? I'm sure not."

[bklyncowgirl]

64. Definately an important point. The people are back in the game.

We not only can compare notes on TV commercials we can produce our own commercials and spoof those of opposing candidates. These million dollar campaigns are at the mercy of any joker with a computer and a digital camera.

Even someone with the most minimal computer skills can log into a blog or a bulleting board and publish our thoughts on the candidates and the issues instantaneously.

Obama's people get this. The game has changed. Some politicians despite the example of "Senator Macaca" seem to not quite have absorbed the whole thing.

[Independent-Voter]

68. Absolutely - It's an exciting time to be watching things like this

and not just relating to elections. There's never been a better time to be an artist, musician, writer, etc. The internet and low-cost technologies have completely changed the game.

[Usrename]

26. You know, Hillary has looked like she is being handled.

Throughout this campaign, and Obama has looked like he is the one in charge of his campaign. It's just another observation.

McCain looks like Reagan in his second term. He can barely comprehend what's happening, what's real/imagined, or what's appropriate.

I like your perspective on this horserace.

[XemaSab]

81. Perception is huge

And back to the horse race metaphor, with Hillary-the-horse you can see the jockey on her back pushing her. With Obama-the-horse he just looks like he's out there running for the fun of it.

The fact that Obama's team are behind the scenes leaving him out in front and the fact that Obama himself doesn't have that handled look is hugh.

[bklyncowgirl]

82. With the truly great horses--and politicans--it looks like a true partnership

A good jockey knows how to stay out of the way of the good ones--so does a good political advisor.

[Yael]

28. Well done!

K&R

[Orsino]

30. Grassroots still has some meaning.

Despite all the corporate inevitability of a successful, rock-star senator like Clinton, there was just enough room for a candidate with a slightly more populist message to gain a toehold. Oh, not enough for a real progressive such as Kucinich or a visionary like Edwards (who were both drowned out long ago), but there was a path to success for Obama, and he has managed his campaign well enough to take advantage of it.

He has successfully promoted at least the appearance of change a bit more widely than Clinton has. Despite a Senate record not too much different from hers, he still had street cred with which to match her money, and has managed to cash it in for even more money.

He has charisma, perhaps even more than she has.

In the final analysis, he looks more like hope, and more like ordinary Americans, than she does--but perhaps only a little more so as yet. I hope that he will be our next president, but my real hope is that beneath his undistinguished record is a politician who will dare to exceed corporate boundaries on his leadership. I believe that such courage is now beyond Clinton, as she's simply been trained by big Money for much longer.

Either of them is capable, and either one will make history by taking office. I just hope that I've chosen the candidate with a little more courage.

[bklyncowgirl]

36. Clinton's run a very top down campaign--that would have been a big winner in the 90s

I don't think they ever really appreciated the Internet as an organizing tool--or the role ordinary people could play in the campaign.

Obama and his people studied Howard Dean's campaign--both the groundbreaking creative parts and the mistakes. Plus, as an old community organizer Obama has a gift for getting people involved and excited.

A look at the two candidates donors speaks volumes. Clinton went after the usual big bucks donors with some grassroots support, Obama's tapped the grassroots, ordinary people who give a few dollars here a few dollars there. Get enough of those and you can outraise the big bucks guys into the ground.

[Orsino]

49. Yep. Clinton's plan should have been enough...

...but thankfully, grassroots still has a voice. Whatever her qualifications, no one should run unopposed. Obama gave her somebody to look better than, and she hasn't quite pulled it off.

I'm sorry that the machine doesn't allow us even more choice.

[bklyncowgirl]

50. Whether it's Clinton or Obama the Democratic candidate will be stronger for having to fight for it

My belief is that neither Gore nor Kerry was given enough of a battle to get them ready to run. A long primary campaign like the one Bill Clinton faced, exposes weaknesses and trains a candidate to get in there and fight in ways that all the strategists in the world cannot.

[jgraz]

34. That's why they play the games

Hillary would have been fine if it wasn't for all those darn elections.

Great, intelligent, thoughtful post. I'm surprised it didn't burst into flames when it touched GDP.

[bklyncowgirl]

39. I've been waiting for the flames--Cowgirl's got her asbestos chaps on but expecting to get burned.

Responses have so far been thoughtful and intelligent--am I in the right forum?

[jgraz]

42. Ever heard of "garbage in, garbage out"? It works the other way, too

Thanks for raising the tone around here.

[bklyncowgirl]

45. The truth is, I feel it's kind of tragic.

I never supported her, mind you, I just couldn't get past that IWR vote, but as woman I can't help but feel something for the first woman with a real shot at the presidency.

I don't know if we're looking at tragedy--or comedy or a mix of both. Shakespeare could have had fun with this story.

[Dinger]

38. I Don't Think It's A Matter Of What's HAPPENED To Her,

More like what's been DONE to her. Call it whiny or whatever, but I sometimes think she's been Howard Dean'd, and yes, to some extent a victim.
Since I do like Obama, as I've stated here before, I have a strong feeling that the corporate media will turn on Obama "like a junkyard dog." (I heard someone say that here recently, and for some reason it stuck.) And I think a lot of this election is being controlled by people who are definitely not at the grass-roots level. As a voter, I feel like sort of a chess piece. In other words, I'm in the game, but I have nothing to say about where I'm going. Maybe Hillary will change that, Or Barack. I guess I can hope for a miracle. It could happen.

[bklyncowgirl]

41. You could be right, Dinger.

If he gets the nomination I hope that Obama keeps his teflon cloak in good shape--he's going to need it.

You always have to worry about the corporate media.

[jgraz]

43. It's hard to feel bad for Hillary when you look at what the MSM did to Edwards and Kucinich

She had more than her fair share of positive coverage. This failure is something she did to herself.

[EFerrari]

74. Aside from that one element, she's the anti-Dean.

And the media was a lot kinder to her, as awful as they have been, than they were to Howard.

I don't think Dean could lie with a straight face. I don't think Hillary can avoid sounding insincere even when she thinks she's telling the truth.

Dean is inclusive. Clinton is inclusive when it suits her.

Dean ran a grassroots operation. Clinton rode in with the DLC that helped tank Dean.

Dean ran a positive, smart campaign. Even the scream had to be manufactured and projected all over him because his successful insurgency threatened both parties.

Clinton never stopped shooting herself in the foot from the beginning of her campaign when her slogan was "You're stuck with me".

But, I agree that when she drops out, they will tear into Obama like a pack of wild hungry dogs.

[MethuenProgressive]

47. After BO pandered to the Fundies, he successfully Swiftboated her on Race in S.C.

Add to that the MSM's years of hatred for her, the Right Wing's filthy propaganda gleefully echoed by so-called Democrats, the media pushing their Fairy Tale about his "anti-Iraq War record", and their outright "crush" on the "Rock Star", and it's surprising it stayed this close for so long.

[bklyncowgirl]

48. I don't know, MP, it seems to me that Clinton got plenty of good coverage before Iowa

I remember debate after debate the talking heads yammering on about how terrific she'd done, story after story about how she had the greatest campaign staff ever and of course who could compete with Bill.

I agree with you that by the time South Carolina rolled around the media'd done a u-turn and were swooning over Obama. Conspiracy or just the tendency of the corporate media to go with the hot story. Who knows.

[Ikonoklast]

52. The problem started back when the Clintons tried to replace

Gov. Dean with Harold Ford. Carville and Rahm Emanuel didn't get the job done, underestimating the resiliency and support for Dean from the grassroots of the party, leaving the DLC candidate out in the cold.

I will never forget the muffed hit job they tried. Gov. Dean's fifty state strategy is working, and the real reason Congress turned Democratic. But the Clintons saw that as a threat to their primary strategy, and tried to game the system to their advantage by replacing Dean, and just concentrating on the states that 'mattered'.

Now we are hearing some squeaking about seating the Michigan and Florida delegates. Force that and you'll split the party; guaranteeing a November loss in the general.

It's been downhill for them ever since they failed to get the DNC chair of their choice, so the rules would have been set only to favor a front-runner.

[bklyncowgirl]

58. Interesting take, I do think Howard Dean has been pivotal

There's no secret there's bad blood between him and the Clintons. When James Carville comes gunning for you, it's pretty much a given who he's doing it for. That backfired, of course.

Unless something comes to light, to indicate that he's actively, personally, supporting Obama, I think that Dean's role has been to make sure everyone plays by the rules and letting the process go forward.

So far he hasn't been accused by the Clinton campaign of trying to grease the skids for Obama. My guess is they're not going to try another hit on Dean. Too many of those superdelegates they're courting are the very DNC types who voted Howard in in the first place--and yes it would split the party.

[Ikonoklast]

63. History will show that Gov. Dean saved this party

I imagine that one day the story will be told of the behind-the-scenes politicking, maneuvering, and deal-making.

Dean must be a true political operator to have gone up against the corporatists, DLC, and Clinton sympathizers in the party, keep his job, and insure a level playing field for ALL the candidates.

I liked Dean before, but my admiration of him has grown mightily after what he has accomplished.

[gravity]

54. Obama happened

Her campaign wasn't prepared for Obama. If she ran her campaign against any other candidate, she would have easily won the nomination.

[bklyncowgirl]

60. They underestimated they guy, that's for sure. nt

[From The Left]

66. The Camera Doesn't Lie

The more people get to know Hillary, the less they like her.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

72. Well done!

I think you hit every single point I have thought about these many months.

In reality, Clinton really should have been a shoo-in for the nomination. Having no dog in the hunt, and therefore no emotional investment in either candidate, I must say that watching the trajectories of the two campaigns has been fascinating. I think this one will go down in political history as examples of both how to do and how NOT to do it.

I really think Clinton has had one bad mistep after another, all illustrated by your post. And when I watched the debate last night and she popped out the xerox line, I just yelled at my TV, "Fer fuck's sake, stop digging!"

You are so right about her not having the "magic" of Bill and having to work at it -- but she still should have learned an important lesson from him. I saw him speak for the '92 election at San Jose State and I am here to tell you, he was the "Obama" of that race! He was completely inspiring and uplifting, his message was a positive one -- I left the event feeling hopeful about the future and genuinely excited about a Clinton presidency. If she had managed to wrap herself in the same message, I think she would have had better traction.

I too found myself feeling sorry for her last night -- it's like watching a heavyweight boxer who has taken a hard beating and continues to pitifully flail away as they are heading towards the mat. :(

Once upon a time I would have loved the idea of a Hillary Clinton presidency.

[bklyncowgirl]

78. What's that saying about the definition of insanity being doing the same dumb thing over and over...

over again and expecting different results. I too let out a groan when she pulled out that xerox line.

I never had a good word to say about Bill Clinton until before the New York primary when he debated Jerry Brown on the Phil Donahue show. The New York campaign had been rough with accusations of corruption and sexual misconduct being thrown out by both sides. Everybody expected it to be a slugfest but Donahue pulled a surprise. He just told the candidates to talk with each other and he'd just sit on the sidelines. What followed was an hour of two highly intelligent candidates discussing issues in a calm and respectful manner. At the end of that debate, I still voted for Brown but I was convinced that America would be just fine if Clinton was to win.

Who's the bad guy in this story, Bill Clinton, Mark Penn or is it Hillary herself. As a woman I resent the view of a female candidate as the passive tool of her husband and strategists and from what I've heard of Hillary Clinton, the notion of her as a victim is ridiculous.

Unless this story takes a surprising turn, it looks like Hillary Clinton is going down and going down hard. I just hope she has the wisdom to realize it and does not take the Democratic Party down with her.

[crispini]

79. See, Bill could have gotten away with the Xerox line.

Hillary could not. Whoever fed that to her didn't realize that.

[cloud75]

75. I love Hillary... skimmed your post...and in my opinion

you are right...the media...the hatters and obama of course obama is a natural i just hope she continues to serve the country as a senator.

[adoraz]

84. so many have had epic collapses this year

biggest 3 I believe

Hillary- led everywhere
Rudy- 50 million for 1 delegate
Romney- spent tens of millions on his own campaign and lost, and had been leading last fall in some of the first states


Obama has just had an unbelievable campaign.

[paulk]

85. the media's overwhelmingly positive coverage of Obama

is what is most responsible for his rise from unknown to leading for the Dem nomination.