I think it's quite possible that Clinton will drop out before TX and OH

[cali]

In fact, I don't think it's unlikely at all. If polls and internals show her solidly losing those states, I think she'll opt to leave the race. Yes, yes, I know about her surrogates talking about Puerto Rico and staying in until the convention, but we know too well that those are often empty promises. It's not just the poll numbers though. Her campaign in in disarray as story after story demonstrates. She has a brand new campaign manager. Her campaign in in debt, she just started her ground game in Texas. Obama's is well established. Her big donors are starting to look askance at how her campaign has been run. She wasn't able to do better than a draw in last night's debate, and her closing statement had the bittersweet flavor of an exit speech.

She's a very bright person and she knows that if she stays in under those circumstances she'll damage her own future, her husband's legacy and gamble on siphoning off political power. She will not make that mistake.

MSM coverage will likely focus more and more on the failings of her campaign and new stories will emerge about it. It can easily become a post-mortem even before her campaign officially dies.

So watch the polls and the type of stories being broadcast over the next week. If both are bad, I think we'll see her making a graceful exit from the battlefield.

[Independent-Voter]

1. She's milking her suppporters to pay off the debt at this point. I think she'll ride it out

[cali]

2. I don't.

It's just too big a risk. And I believe she can use money designated for the general to pay off campaign debt If she sees that she's going to lose, she'll get out.

[Independent-Voter]

8. If she can use GE funding to pay off the debt, then I'd be inclined to agree with you

I'm not up on how that sort of funding mechanism would work though.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. just saw the last politico article on her finances

on another site
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8613.html

those numbers just don't crunch in any edible way.

Without her 5 mill loan, she is 2 mill in debt, and she owes Penn 2 mill just for January. (and penn's wife $175,000)

any campaign that is so top heavy, so consultant driven, simply misses the big issue. it is almost inconceivable that they would stay the course internally, when so many $$$ troubles were becoming dire.

Methinks you are right.

[Raven]

4. I'm not sure it's in her makeup to drop out before 3/4.

Maybe she would if Edwards comes out for Obama in the next few days. As an aside: her closing last night was gracious and wonderful and gave me hope that we will go into the GE as a united Party.

[earthlover]

5. You may be right, but I don't think she would quit before the votes have been counted

I don't think it would hurt her standing in the party to wait until she loses one or more of the races.

From last night's debate I feel she knows she probably will lose. I was expecting her to come out swinging at Obama, but she backed off from that for the most part. MAybe she realized that it would be counter-productive but then again her campaign has never been reluctant to go negative, so I sense that she felt it didn't make any difference, she has lost, and she wanted to exit gracefully. She did the Xerox thing but I don't think her heart was in it.

Her campaign really let her down. It will go down in history as a classic blow of a huge lead.

[cali]

9. Well, you may be right

but it's the combination of factors that I can see forcing her out: Poor public poll numbers, bad internals, money problems, lack of a solid ground game, bad press- any one of those is bad, but if they all come together they become a strong force.

[Raven]

12. You know, I'm beginning to wonder if she ever really had a "huge lead".

I think the campaign tactic was to present her as having a huge lead...the inevitability thing...but it may have been an illusion from the start. It might have worked against other candidates but not Obama.

[mtnsnake]

32. As a Hillary supporter, I would wonder about that, also

Only I would wonder if the media is the one who presented her as having such a commanding lead a year ago, not her campaign. The media seems to be able to choreograph these things in any manner they wish, almost at will. It was like that with John Kerry and how the media painted us as being so far ahead of Bush before we even started. Most everyone took that as such a great sign and we were all counting our chickens before they hatched. I took it as a bad sign right from the beginning, because I knew the media was going be telling us by the end of the campaign how Bush closed the gap to a virtual tie and blah blah blah. I just don't trust any of the early polls. I never have. It's always as though the media is setting up for the big comeback and win. If I was a candidate, I'd want to be down in the polls by at least 10 points to start with.

[JTFrog]

46. Mismanaged from day one.

Mark Penn will bear most of the blame in the end. Inevitable and entitled. Her campaign ran on that strategy and the media faithfully followed along.

http://www.observer.com/2008/why-clinton-s-back-against ...

‘We Didn’t Put Any Resources In Small States,’ Says Finance Chair Hassan Nemazee

“What’s gone wrong is very simple,” said Hassan Nemazee, a national finance chair for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

“If we had won Iowa and New Hampshire, as we had anticipated, projected, et cetera, you would not have been in a situation in which you are losing all of these small states—because we didn’t put any resources in those small states,” he said. “Obama, on the other hand, put resources in these small states.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/178650.php

So now you have Penn successively saying caucus wins don't really count, small state wins don't really count, medium state wins don't really count, states with large African-American populations don't really count, all building up to yesterday's gem: "Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama."

------

Clinton is ultimately responsible for putting her political fate in this fool's hands. But this is a guy who has basically one big political win under his belt and whose record in seriously contested races, particularly Democratic primary races is one of almost constant defeats. Much of Clinton's current predicament stems from Penn's disastrous, glass-jaw 'inevitability' strategy and the mind-boggling decision not even to contest a slew of states where Obama racked up huge victories and many delegates.

Campaigns are about winning votes not making excuses. There are plenty of delegates still out there for Clinton to win -- over a thousand left in the remaining primaries. But her efforts are being stymied by a campaign apparatus rooted in the belief that any new reality can be overturned by pretending it away.

Even Clinton hack Taylor Marsh wants Penn fired for running an inevitability campaign:

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=26770

Fire Mark Penn

Somebody decided to run an inevitability campaign and because of that they let Barack Obama off the hook.

So someone needs to explain to me why the first viable female candidate to have a chance to win the presidency isn't the very symbol of change in a very big way.

Someone also needs to explain to me who pulled the "inevitability" campaign out of whose posterior.

[Tesha]

50. They repeatedly denied the plain evidence that Hillary is hated in many places...

... and disliked in many more.

Her negatives were 49% going into this race; that's the
sure sign of a looser, either now or in November.

What's really a shame is that her presence in the race
forced several other good candidates out.

Tesha

[milkyway]

60. Obama has been the leader ever since voting began in Iowa. He won more pledged

delegates that day, and never on any single day of voting has Hillary won more pledged delegates. She has won more pledged delegates only in some Super Tuesday states, but she lost on the overall delegate count for that day.

Hillary for Supreme Court Justice.

[KittyWampus]

6. Cali, my guess is she'll cede Texas if necessary & focus resources to fight in Ohio

so even if she DOES lose one of those two states and ultimately does have to drop out, she can still point to a win and go out on a high note.

This is if her internals show Texas as getting too far away from her.

[cali]

14. What if public polls and her internals

show her losing OH as well? And I think it's a foregone conclusion that she'll lose RI and VT.

[Recursion]

30. RI is a good shot for her

(I'm going there to canvas for Obama next week.) Its numbers look roughly like MA.

[cali]

38. Yeah, I know that RI

is a possible for her but this isn't Feb 5th.

[JerseygirlCT]

7. They were speculating about this on MSNBC (I think) last night

too. I wonder.

[suston96]

10. No one will drop out unless one candidate reaches 2025 pledged delegates. nt

[cali]

16. Nope. Even Bill said yesterday that if she doesn't win TX

and OH, she can't win the nomination. That's about as clear a signal as you can get. She's deeply in debt and her campaign is in disarray. It's absurd to suppose, at this point, that she'll stay in it if things look bad in TX and OH- and they're not looking rosy for her now.

[suston96]

29. There are only two candidates. Dropping out before one reaches 2025 delegates makes no sense...

...maybe "suspend"? Who knows what lurks in the back rooms of the NY Times or some other place like that which could change everything before the convention....?

[cali]

34. It makes sense if you know you're not going to win even one more

contest. SDs will all go to Obama in a signal for her to get out. Money will completely dry up. She'll become nothing but a curiosity and a joke. She has way too much dignity to let that happen.

[UALRBSofL]

48. cali, your right, Bill even said if she didn't win Tx and Ohio she couldn't win

I think her biggest problem is lack of funds. She, rather Penn spent just way too much money on the front end of the campaign thinking it would be over on super tuesday, not managing a budget for primaries/caucuses after super tuesday. Without a large funding it's difficult to have a good ground game. It's unfortunate for her. I wanted Penn fired after Iowa but I suppose he has a contract with her campaign that disallows this. Sadly.

[rox63]

11. I think she'll stay in the race until March 5

After she loses TX and maybe OH to Obama.

[H2O Man]

13. I agree.

It would be far better, both for herself and the party, if she did the right thing before the Texas and Ohio contests.

[0007]

15. There may be something to what you're saying?

[PATRICK]

17. Two ways

The most unlikely is that she would publicly throw in the towel. It is an amazing thing already that her husband did the unseemly thing of presuming to declare these wins a necessity. That was extremely setting the lines. That seems to me inappropriate for anyone besides the candidate and a big risk for even the candidate to state that clearly. It declares desperation which they can only hope hints at comeback strength(don't leave me yet, superdelegates!). To me this is not surrender so much as just trying to stop a huge counter pressure for them to quit now. Stalling for time.

So they are not surrendering(willingly) at least to the galling argument of "inevitability" that was their own original big hammer.

The second way they could give up is simply to become more graceful and back off on certain expenses and types of campaigning. As their campaign and its finances become stretched that will happen whatever they choose. Bill is staunchly continuing for his wife but a graceful surrender may have been signaled during the debate. Of course, that is not completely clear since she is still seriously in the race. One always does the negative and then back away quickly from the blowback(in our party at least). So she was mostly positive and upper road in the debate. Hardly anyone wins a debate on points. The big score is on the brutally simple comparison of leadership personalities. I think the backing off from the debate initially was a recognition of the fuel it confers to the Obama momentum. By this point there is nothing to lose anyway so she ably and gamely went on looking for the champ to take a fortuitous fall- which he didn't.

I don't think the Clintons have enough left in the ground game to stave off the inevitable. Unless they simply want to run themselves ragged and look like losers they might as well rest up and look to the work of healing the party. Their current huge amount of delegates creates a lot of leverage they can lose by untimely stubbornness, which leverage if it is merely in behalf of the DLC and failed leadership policies, is indeed a wonderful thing to waste.

I think some respect should be paid for their effort and the sheer pain of the loss, greater than that of the other primary candidates. It is to big to simply throw in a towel or throw the brakes on the big machine and its many supporters. In the faint hope stage we have all been through at some time or other, how can they really stop short now?

[mtnsnake]

18. I'm sure she'll stay in the race until she wins

The only question I have is who will she pick for her VP?

[Blue_Roses]

19. no way...

the Clintons are not about to give up now. It's like that saying, "you'll have to pry my dead hands from this..."

She's too arrogant to quit.

[cali]

20. She's too smart not to

if things keep unfolding in the way they have been.

[mtnsnake]

21. "She's too arrogant to quit." So because Hillary isn't a quitter, that makes her "arrogant"?

In my book it makes her determined, not arrogant.

[cali]

24. Let me remind you

John Edwards swore upside and down that he was in it all the way up to the convention. She's smart and she won't stay in it if she knows she can't win. And it's very close to that point now.

[mtnsnake]

27. Where do you get that it's very close to that point that "she knows she can't win"?

Has Hillary given you some special indication that she thinks "it's very close to that point now"?

[cali]

31. Yes. Her closing comments last night

and Bill's comments in TX. I'm listening to a post-mortem on "On Point" right now. I think the only people who don't realize that this is close to the end are die hard supporters.

[mtnsnake]

40. IMO, her closing commments were crafted to increase her likability rating among undecided voters

and I think it was very smart of her because of how sincere she came off.

I also interpreted her closing comments as showing she isn't cocky, but is realistic that it could go either way and she's being very careful to show that she is a team player and not a sore loser if things don't work out as planned.

I think she's still got confidence in her campaign and is no where close to thinking she can't win. I think her closing comments were planned in a way to pull at the strings of the voters in a favorable way for her. You and I have made up our minds, but she's counting on thousands of voters coming out of that debate saying to themselves, "You know, Hillary Clinton is not as bad a person as I've heard she is. I always knew she was competent, but now I kind of like her."

[cali]

41. It's possible, but I heard an echo of

a farewell in those remarks. And I do think she's a team player, but if things look bleak for her on March 4 and she believes she's heading into making it 15 straight losses, I don't see her hanging in to have that happen.

[democrattotheend]

22. I don't think so

And I think her final answer last night was meant to hint at concession, but do so in such a way that made people feel sad to see her go, increasing the likelihood that they will vote to keep her in it. If that was her goal, it was pretty effective...I'm a pretty passionate Obama supporter and I felt like part of me would be sad to see her drop out.

After Edwards dropped out, it seemed like a lot of people wish he'd stayed in...some form of buyer's remorse, I guess. I think that feeling is what Clinton might have been going for before she drops out. Perhaps by making it look like she might drop out, enough people will want to see her stay in it.

This is not a criticism or anything...if I am right about her motives, then it was a pretty brilliant move on her part.

[Renew Deal]

23. Jonathan Alter said this last night.

He thinks that she might not make it to March 4 for the same reason.

[cali]

26. It's just common sense

I didn't hear Alter as I don't have TV but it seems like a real possibility to me. I'm listening to "On Point" now and they're pretty much doing a post-mortem, saying that OH and TX do not look good for her.

[Fire_brand]

25. You guys are forgetting that Texas and Ohio don't count

[slick8790]

58. Welcome to DU!

That's an interesting button you have there...I'd watch out, we have some people on here who think that any republican who votes for Obama is just trying to screw up our election!

[Egnever]

28. Entirely possible.

It would be the smart thing to do. It will help the party and save her from embarrassment. She has absolutely no plan going forward and no events planned in the states that follows. I think she has already conceded and is just holding out to try to pay off her debt at this point. With a tiny smidgen of wild optimism that something could go horribly wrong for Obama in the next ten days to miraculously deliver her the nod.

Barring an act of god or a stumble by obama of epic proportions this thing is all over cept the shouting and she knows it. Even if her Supporters don't.

[sfam]

33. There is NO possibility of her bowing out prior to March 4...at all.

I say this as an Obama supporter. Hillary has talked these two dates up for quite some time. On top of this, her huge success happened in NH, when the polls showed her more than 10 points down. She WILL NOT back out until after these two contests are decided.

I do think its entirely possible for her to concede on like March 6 or something, depending on the results. Not before that though.

[cali]

35. Of course there's a possibility. It's absurd to say it's impossible.

NH was a lifetime ago in political terms, and the landscape has radically changed.

[sfam]

39. Its possible that Obama gets caught having sex with a goat before March 4 too...

but its highly unlikely. Personally, I'm betting on the Obama goat-sex story before the Clinton-bow out story.

[cali]

42. That's just silly

If her internals show her losing in OH and TX in the kind of way she lost Wisconsin, she'll get out. She doesn't want to suffer 14 straight blowouts. That kind of thing is damaging.

[sfam]

59. If they do, I'm pretty sure she'll take the loss and try to...

work the last few days on a positive message, and then get out after the race. It just doesn't make any sense to get out prior to that.

[loveangelc]

36. do you know their internals show this?

[cali]

37. Nope. That's why I said "if"

We'll just have to watch how things play out this week re press, money and polls.

[Tellurian]

43. Sure Hillary will drop out.. when she's ahead in current Texas Polls.

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[yodermon]

47. The slope of that orange line has *got* to be worrisome though. n/t

[StrongBad]

57. Especially with almost 2 more weeks to go...

[cali]

49. Open your eyes

Take a look at that orange line. They're effectively tied. There's a week and a half to go. She has a weak ground game, an unsettled campaign with a new campaign manager, and she's deeply in debt and will be massively outspent. Care to respond to these facts? No?

[ieoeja]

44. I hope like hell she doesn't drop out.

If she drops out now the rightwing pundits will repeatedly insinuate that Obama may have only won the nomination because Hillary dropped out prematurely. Her losing Texas and Ohio would be a far greater boon to the Democratic Party than her dropping out at this point.

We need to see our nominee win a big state or two against competition.

[onenote]

45. Gotta disagree with you on this one Cali

I can't see her dropping out before those primaries. Not even sure she'll drop out immediately after them, even if she loses them both (although I think if that happens she will drop out before the convention).

[babylonsister]

51. Whenever that speech happens, I'll be watching.

I do hope she thinks about our party and does the right thing.

[Occam Bandage]

52. I don't think she drops. Even if she sees she's moribund,

I think she holds on, cuts spending, sees what funding she can raise, and drops the day after TX/OH. There's little to be lost, I think.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

53. I don't think she will exit before TX and Ohio

like Huckabee she is probably waiting for something terrible to happen to the frontrunner?

[Arkana]

54. No, she won't.

There's been such a stink made about her last stand being TX and OH that she will never in a million years back down before then.

As far as I'm concerned, Obama is still down 30 points--and we need to operate under that mindset until we take the nomination.

[From The Left]

55. I think she's gone after TX and OH

She's out of money, out of ideas and out of time.

[Colobo]

56. Me too!

[IDemo]

61. I believe any of three factors may cause her to drop out

in order of likelihood:

1) Obama's numbers in Texas continue to increase to the point where a blowout win looks inevitable. She will more than likely take Ohio, but not by enough to counter a huge loss in Texas.

2) An increase in the rate of super delegates endorsing Obama. The numbers have been trickling his way daily here, and it wouldn't take much for the floodgates to open in his favor.

3) One or more of the party Illuminati - Gore, Edwards, Dean, steps in and either endorses Obama or convinces Hillary it is time.

All in my opinion, of course.

[elixir]

62. It's too early to speculate. She's still w/in striking distance, down 70+ delegates.

[earthlover]

63. You know, it is possible that we all have been wrong about the debate....

I agree that the Xerox thing bombed. I would also say that, up until the last arguements the debate was basically a draw....Obama and Hillary both did well, no knock out punches, advantage Obama.

However....her last lines were very moving. Were they validictorian in style? Maybe. But maybe...just maybe....this could have an impact on voters. Much the same way as when she took off her facade before NH and showed some emotion. Voters responded to that, rightly or wrongly, and she won NH even though the polls showed she was headed for a loss.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom about a debate is wrong.

I personally think that it did not give Hillary the breakthrough she needed. However, I can't rule this out. We could see her going up in the polls in Texas in a few days, who knows?

I have not thought this before, and I think there are better alternatives for Obama, but the idea of an Obama/Clinton ticket would have some good things going for it. She DOES have a lot of support among Democrats, and such a ticket would certainly unite the party. I don't think her negatives would hinder the ticket as much with her on the VP side. It would be an historic ticket for change...racially and gender-wise. Although I have doubted she would take VP, I can't be so sure. She is only 60. She could still run in 4-8 years. She is not my first choice, however I think she should be in his top 5 list if not higher.