The Texas Primary

[Skink]

The electronic ballot lists the entire Democratic field. It is possible now that Edwards may pick up a delegate or Kucinich. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

[NYCGirl]

1. I believe they have to clear 15% before being awarded a delegate. NT

[grantcart]

2. You are correct that 15% is the threshold for the caucus

But in the primary delegates are allocated on a Cong Dist basis. If you had a 3 delegate distric a candidate would have to get 33% to get a delegate.


Here are some additional points on the ins and outs of the rather peculiar TX system


II. Texas is in part a caucus state:

http://www.star-telegram.com/national_news...
quote
Texas has an unusual system of choosing delegates that involves both a primary and a caucus.

The system, which follows national party standards, is geared to ensure that all Democrats have a shot at making it to the convention and making their voice -- and choice -- heard.

"It's very, very confusing in the way politics in general is confusing," said Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas in Arlington. "The Democratic National Convention has weighted the votes, but they want to make sure the people who participate get to weigh in."

Texas will send 228 delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of those delegates, 126 will be assigned to vote for candidates based on election results.

An additional 35 will be super delegates . . .The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system -- with 42 being rank-and-file Democrats and 25 being party leaders and elected officials, according to a Lone Star Project Report.
unquote

Hillary and her machine has already dissed the caucus system pretty thoroughly I wonder who energized their folks are going to be for a process disavowed by their candidate. More to the point Obama's forces are skilled and they have the bodies motivated to move on a caucus.



IV Delegate Distribution favors Obama.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archiv...

To begin with no one gets a single delegate for taking the state. Delegates are appropriated to state senate districts based on Kerry's performance in 04.

quote
The delegate-rich districts are the most heavily liberal state senate districts. According to this calculation, they're in Austin and in two of the most concentrated African American parts of the state. Advantage: Obama.

Clinton will get plenty of support from Latino voters, but they tend to be more spread out and thus will see their votes somewhat diluted in the 31 separate primaries. In order to "win" -- both enough delegates and statewide, you need to organize what amounts to caucus-like campaigns in each of these districts.

The white vote in Texas will probably split, with Obama taking men and Clinton taking women. Though Latinos make up a slightly larger share of the electorate than African Americans, they tend to vote in lower proportions.

Unquote.

[NYCGirl]

5. Thank you so much for the great clarification.

I do think, though, that none of the "suspended" candidates would be able to garner enough votes to get delegates in that scenario.

[grantcart]

6. In a normal year they might be able to get something going in

one CD or another but with participation up 2-400% its just not going to happen.

[crispini]

3. Kooch isn't on the ballot.

He refused to sign the loyalty oath, remember?

[democrattotheend]

4. Unlikely

Edwards did not even get any delegates in California, where early voting began long before he dropped out, and Kucinich never broke 15% in any state when he was running. I am not criticizing those who want to cast a symbolic vote for a candidate who has dropped out, but it's hard to imagine that they will get enough votes to get delegates.