Why does Hillary maintain a lead in Ohio?

[senseandsensibility]

The pundits compare Ohio to Wisconsin, which went heavily for Obama. They point to a similar white, blue collar population. The implication is that Obama will take Ohio too. But I have feeling that Ohio and Wisconsin are very different.

Any locals want to weigh in on this? I'm from California and know almost nothing about either state, as embarrassing as that is to admit.:blush:

But I would like to know what Obama's chances are for catching up to Hillary in Ohio, if anyone would like to chime in.

[MethuenProgressive]

1. They don't read DU there?

Just a guess.

[senseandsensibility]

2. LOL

I'm not a Hillary supporter, but I'm not a basher either. I agree that DU can be very brutal to her sometimes.

[Cha]

48. But, they're not "brutal" to Obama or

we just don't whine about it?

[lisainmilo]

5. or watch Bill Maher!

Spoke about it on his last show. Basically she is bullshitting her way through, and the voters are buying it.

[SammyWinstonJack]

44. ...

:spray:

[JKaiser]

3. Because she is awesome!

[JimGinPA]

4. Give It A Few Days - He's Just Begun To Campaign In Ohio

:applause:

[texas_indy]

6. Truer words never spoken. GOBAMA!! (ot)

[jgraz]

11. More importantly, SHE'S just begun to campaign in Ohio

Hillary lost ground in every Wisconsin county she campaigned in. The more people see her, the less they like her.

[catgirl]

7. He has already started catching up

It'll either be really close, or he'll win.

[rucky]

8. My guess...

Ohio was economically better off under Bill Clinton. We're really feeling the pinch, and Ohians by nature are a bit more risk-averse and change-averse. Maybe it's her being a known quantity?

:shrug:

[GarbagemanLB]

10. Wait until he starts the attacks on NAFTA. He will win Ohio.

[Captain Hilts]

23. And she responds with CAFTA....nt

[senseandsensibility]

12. Ah! A Ohian!

Would you say that the populations of Ohio and Wisconsin are similar?

[CitizenLeft]

24. I don't think it's that analogous

Milwaukee and Cleveland may be similar, but as for the rest of the state, I don't think it's that close. I think a better comparison is OH & PA, but even then... we have spots of "Alabama" in OH, but not such a wide swath as has been joked about PA. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are sort of sister cities, yet Pittsburgh is more conservative than Cleveland. Kerry took almost every corner of Cuyahoga county in '04, even though some of those areas are wealthy and conservative. In my opinion, both states - OH & WI are somewhat similar, but not enough to make any kind of prediction about Mar 3rd.

[f the letter]

15. That's amazing! Christopher Walken has my vote! n/t

[jlpohio69]

21. I am from Cincinnati

and I agree with Rucky. I spent most of my 20's with the Clintons, and I recall those prosperous times. There is a bit of nostalgia involved when it comes to my support of Hillary. I like both her and Obama, but my gut is telling me to go with Hillary. Doesn't mean I am anti-Obama, I will support him fully if he is the nominee. I feel like I know what I am getting with Hillary, but I am not sure yet about Obama. His message of hope is wonderful, but I perceive to Hillary to be more tough and straight-forward, and that "feels" to be a more comfortable position for me. At any rate, I am impressed with the both of them, and will be pleased with either in the White House.

[senseandsensibility]

25. Welcome to DU!

And I agree that both are impressive. IMHO we need more posters in this forum who realize that, too. So don't let anyone scare you off! Keep the positive attitude if you can!:hi:

[CitizenLeft]

29. I suspect most Ohioans feel the way you do

I don't sense any anti-Hillary or anti-Obama feeling from the people I talk to, no matter how much they support either candidate. I've yet to speak to anyone who won't vote for the other.

[Kukesa]

31. I totally agree. It's a tough decision for us to make. n/t

[Kukesa]

30. And a big DU welcome from this Daytonian. n/t

[OzarkDem]

42. Clinton helped Ohio tremendously

They trust Hillary and Bill and realize that what the country needs is a realignment back to government that worked instead of voting for another new, inexperienced, and for them, unknown candidate.

Obama is an unknown quantity. He has no real record behind his rhetoric that helps Ohio voters decide what he will really do if elected. Ohioans also know how brutal the GOP can be, the state has been controlled by them for a dozen years until 2006. They don't know how well Obama would fare against McCain.

You have to prove yourself to get Dem votes in Ohio and Obama is an unknown quantity.

[RiverStone]

9. Texas is far less murky...

And he is already tied and ahead in some polls there.

A win in TX and it matters not what happens in OH - he is the nominee (says both Bill and Carville).:)

Good question tho regarding OH - sorry - don't know???

[CitizenLeft]

20. that's very true...

If he takes TX, OH won't matter, especially if the TX win is over 10% I don't see that, but you never know.

[ProSense]

13. Obama has eroded her double-digit lead in a week's time.

Yesterday:

Ohio:
Clinton 48% (-3)
Obama 40% (+3)

Texas:
Clinton 47% (-7)
Obama 44% (+6)

link

Today:

Ohio, Texas uphill climbs for Clinton:

The Illinois senator has mobilized his party's left wing, a big help in caucus races where party activists and fired-up newbies are key. And he's drawn crossover Republicans and independents to primaries in which they are allowed to vote.

<...>

Moreover, both states let people vote early. Obama, fresh from his Wisconsin victory on Tuesday, didn't wait for the dust to settle before exhorting Texans to vote right away. "I don't want you to wait until March 4," he said. Clinton, with a head start in campaigning in Texas, also appealed for an early lock on votes.

In the 22 contested Democratic primaries so far, independents made up 22 percent of the vote and they supported Obama by an overwhelming margin of 64 percent to 33 percent. Crossover Republicans, a far smaller percentage in the Democratic primaries, backed him 55-33.

Yet Obama has had the left flank covered, too: a 52-44 advantage over the New York senator among those who consider themselves very liberal.

[Thepricebreaker]

14. Let her win Ohio, Destroy her in Texas - either way its OVER for hillary.

[DFW]

16. Ohio has more rustbelt cities

It has way less rural area than Wisconsin, and a lot of
economically depressed parts with big unemployment. I suspect
that the relative economic good times of the Clinton era leave
some associations in the minds of many Ohio voters. I don't
know any statistics, but if the median age of Ohio's population
is older than that of Wisconsin, then that would give Hillary an
advantage, too. Plus, not every place is as down on her as DU, so
if local factors favor Hillary there, then she could well win. It
still won't automatically hand her the nomination on a silver platter,
even if she wins every vote in the State, which she obviously won't.

[senseandsensibility]

27. That was my assumption

I assumed that Ohio was much less rural, but the cable news pundits don't present it that way. I thought maybe I was wrong, having never been to either place.

[DFW]

36. I have been to both

But if you're thinking of scrapping that Hawaii vacation for
either Milwaukee or Cleveland, don't.

[senseandsensibility]

41. Thanks for the tip!

:hi: LOL.

[DFW]

59. Sure thing!

I'll let you in on a little secret, though:
most people come to that conclusion on their own,
even without my expert tourist advice, incredible
as that may seem...........

[Honeycombe8]

17. She is favored, at this time, to win OH. BUT she had double digit lead...

just a little over a week ago. She now has a single digit lead.

She may still win OH, but it doesn't really matter at this point. She HAS to win BOTH Texas and Ohio by a wide margin. That will not happen, unless there's a miracle.

Ohio is made up of Hillary's core constituency, according to the pundits: blue collar, making under $50K a year, not college educated. BUT since Obama now has made inroads in that constituency, and gotten the large labor union endorsements, that may be what took Hillary's double digit lead away.

Obama may win OH. But even if Hillary wins by a single digit amount, that's not enough to do her any good. She has to win big. And win big in Texas, too. Like I said, that won't happen, unless there is a miracle.

[CitizenLeft]

18. I'm not so sure she's going to hold that lead by Mar 3rd

He's already cut her lead in half - more than in half, he's within 7%, and that took less than a week. Ohio is bluer in the north, redder in the south. I live in Cuyahoga Cty (Cleveland), the bluest part of Ohio, Kucinich country. Having said that, my rep, Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, is campaigning heavily for Hillary, all over the state, and so is our Dem gov, Strickland. Her words carry a lot of weight in her constituecy, but we won't know how that will hold. I believe Obama will take Northeast Ohio, but I can't speak about southern Ohio. That's a whole different region, with different demographics - it's whiter, in some respects poorer, and more conservative. I leave others to discuss that, though, since I've never lived outside of this county and am only speaking about impressions when it comes to southern OH. I do believe, though, that, however it goes, it's going to be close.

[dansolo]

19. Because voters don't shift en masse

Haven't you been paying attention for the past few months? Hillary had large leads in most states, but those were largely build on name recognition. When people start looking more closely at Obama, which is typically a few weeks before the primary/caucus, he has significantly narrowed the gap, or taken the lead. In the past two weeks, Hillary has gone from a 22% lead down to a 7% lead. That is really bad news for Hillary.

[Orsino]

38. Yeah. Why else?

She's put in enough effort to lead in Ohio, obviously. Things could still change, even giving Obama the state.

But it doesn't surprise me that she could still win some states.

[Captain Hilts]

22. Ohio is NOTHING like Wisconsin, so any "pundit" who compares them is stupid.

I was in polling for 8 years.

[skipos]

26. She has always had a lead everywhere in the weeks before the vote

then Obama shows up and chips away at it. Sometimes a little (CA) sometimes a lot (WI).

[Connie_Corleone]

28. Obama just got here today. Her lead is already shrinking.

[SoFlaJet]

32. Tweety explained it yesterday on Hardball

both the latest polls out of Texas and Ohio were taken 80% BEFORE the last primary in Wisconsin-so 4 out of every 5 people questioned were asked before Wisconsin and the numbers are still moving so fast in Obama's favor-he will win both and we'll be hearing a concession speech on the 5th of March

[senseandsensibility]

34. Oh, well then, if TWEETY explained it all.....

end of discussion.:sarcasm: Just kidding. He does make some good points sometimes. It's the other times that make me look askance at anything that comes out of his mouth. In this case, it sounds like he stuck to the facts.

[SoFlaJet]

40. it wasn't opinion he was stating a fact

granted, his opinions when he is being mister tuffguy against democrats is at times, laughable

[TwilightGardener]

33. I'm from western PA, originally. People from the Rust Belt hate change--they like nostalgia.

Otherwise, they would have left the Rust Belt for better pastures. They cling to tradition--there are tons of elderly, lots of strong family ties that keep young people bound to the area, and there are more classic rock stations and mullets/mall hair in PA, OH, KY and WV than in the rest of the country combined--that's a leading indicator of a population that is a little behind the times and is afraid to try something new. Plus, they're a little bit racist, at least where I was from in PA.

[senseandsensibility]

39. Those are the kind of details I was looking for

and that we won't find in the corporate media. Your description made me laugh, but to be honest, we have plenty of people like that in Central California, too.:) This may be the year that even they are ready for a change, however.

[TwilightGardener]

46. They'll slowly catch up. If Ohio was a week or two after TX, I'd expect Obama to win there.

My family and my husband's family still live in PA and OH, and they are exactly the way I described (including the racist part, sadly)--so I know what I'm talking about. I've lived all over the country, including the South, and no region changes more slowly and grudgingly than the PA/OH/WV tri-state area.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

35. Because They Know Hillary Is Better Than Obama?

:shrug:

[OzarkDem]

37. Because she's the better candidate

Dem Ohioans pay attention to politics, even when its not an election year. They tend to be more informed than your average voter.

GOP Ohioans are the typical sheep who follow hate radio, etc.

[NJSecularist]

43. Is that why Ohio-ians elected George W. Bush 2 times?

To answer the original posters question, Ohio is more centrist than Wisconsin. Wisconsin has a bigger progressive streak than Ohio.

[senseandsensibility]

45. That's what I thought.

Thanks for confirming my suspicion,although I wish it wasn't true.

[OzarkDem]

51. Ohio Dem Primary = Ohio Dems Vote = Ohio Dems Support Hillary

If you want to discuss how GOP'ers vote in Ohio, I suggest you visit Free Republic.

And by all means, please keep insulting Ohio Dem voters. It hurts Obama's chances here and that's a good thing.

[senseandsensibility]

55. huh?

My reply was meant as a friendly one. The poster said that Ohio voters are not as progressive as Wisconsin ones, not me. I accepted his or her opinion, and said that I was sorry about it. I guess I plead guilty to wanting all voters everywhere to be more progressive. Why don't you alert on me for that because I am definitely going to alert on you for the Free Republic crack.

[OzarkDem]

49. Read my post

We're discussing the Dem primary. Dems vote in it. Dems support Hillary Clinton.

GOP will be voting in the GOP primary. Understand?

By all means, though, keep insulting Ohio Democrats. It helps Clinton's support here grow even more.

[NJSecularist]

53. No, that is wrong. You can't split up those two groups in the general election

They are one. Collectively, they elected George W Bush twice.

You know the reason why Kerry lost in Ohio in 2004? He didn't get the votes he needed in traditional Democratic districts. Democrats crossed over and voted for Bush. That is a fact. Democrats in Ohio led to the election of George W. Bush. We can thank centrist Ohio democrats for 2 terms of W.

What are you going to say when Obama takes the lead in Ohio? That Ohio-ians are stupid? You know, that meme is just fucking ridiculous. Are you saying the 23 states that voted for Obama are all wrong? That they don't think that Obama is a better candidate

We heard the same fucking thing in Texas. "The reason Hilary is leading by a large margin in Texas is because they want a real candidate." blah blah blah. We heard that same meme in Texas. Now that Obama is in a dead heat with her, that sentiment is silent.

How presumptous of you. Get off your damn high horse. :thumbsdown:

[Arkana]

47. Give it time--he hasn't campaigned in force yet.

[LordJFT]

50. He's closing, he'll catch her

[OzarkDem]

52. Is he going to import voters?

It will be harder to swing the vote with new Ohioans at the last minute.

[NJSecularist]

54. He'll do what he has done in almost every state.

Get off the high horse, Ohio Democrats are no matter than any other Democrats in the U.S.

[LordJFT]

57. He's managed to swing the votes in the past couple weeks in every other state

[carlotta]

56. I think I know part of the reason she's ahead there

Unlike open primary states, where Republicans and Independents can simply ask for a Democratic ballot, in Ohio, you can ask for a Democratic ballot, but you must sign a statement indicating that you are changing party affiliation. A lot of Independents and Republicans are going to be unwilling to do that, and Hillary always does better when only Democrats are voting.

[senseandsensibility]

58. Good point

Thanks!

[tandem5]

60. I'm not from Ohio, but this has been a long primary...

it could be that the candidates have reached a saturation point with the voters.