The pledged delegate count, in percentages, isn't nearly as close as some would have you believe.

[Drunken Irishman]

Everyone keeps talking about how close the pledged delegates are and while in raw numbers, 157 doesn't sound like a lot of pledged delegates, in percentage numbers, it really is. Obama has won 53% of the pledged delegates so far according to CBS totals, Clinton has won 46% of the pledged delegates. That's a difference of 7%, a pretty solid margin for Obama.

And while it isn't a blowout, it's what many would call a comfortable lead right now.

[NastyRiffraff]

1. True, but not enough to justify the demands that Hillary drop out RIGHT NOW

Not before some major states have yet to vote. 7% may be a good lead, but it's certainly not insurmountable. Plus, even the pledged delegate count isn't final, either. There are variances all over the place.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I agree, I think she should wait for Texas and Ohio.

If the percentage doesn't change much after Texas and Ohio, then I think she should drop out.

But I believe Clinton at least deserves one last chance to salvage her campaign.

[Window]

11. I agree, she's not that far behind at this point and should see

what happens after March 4.




Peace:thumbsup:

[NMMatt]

3. I agree to some extent

I wouldn't expect Hillary to drop out before OH and TX. However it would be extremely difficult for her to catch up in pledged delegates. She basically needs to win OH and TX by the 20 point margins that Obama has been winning the post-February 5 states. If she simply wins them by 5 to 10 point margins, she may be able to change the dynamic and muddy the waters by the end of the primary season and leave the winner in doubt, however she won't catch up in pledged delegates. Even over-coming the nearly 100 delegate total margin would be difficult. Do the math. She needs to win nearly 60% of the remaining pledged and/or convince the majority of the remaining super delegates to side with her. Or, I suppose, pick of some of the caucus delegates, but based on what I've heard about in NV (Obama picking up extra due to her delegates not showing up) and her ground game in general - I find that highly unlikely. Oh, and she has to win 60% or so with a serious money disadvantage.

That's her best case scenario. All Obama has to do is out perform the polls a bit (which he has been in every post 2/5 state basically) and/or keep the polls moving in his direction, which has been the case in nearly every state so far including your CA's and MA's, and win OH and TX and end this thing.

[Obamaman2008]

7. I disagree, she should drop out now for the fact that she is

BROKE
She is slowing down Obama
And she is tarnishing the reputation of the Clintons and their place in history.

[quantass]

4. A lot of Math out -- she needs to not only win big in TX and OH but everywhere else at this point.

I tihnk she should stay in at least to TX and OH ... i looked at the math and it's definitely against her considering as how she rarely has beaten by a blowout....very rare...but for TX and OH she MUST blow him out as well as continue that pattern for the rest of the way...if i recall she will need to win 58% for each contest after TX and OH (assuming she wins those with at least 60%)....It is a long shot but i think she should just stay in until March 4th is done and then see from there. Current polls are also not in her favor...a common pattern i have noticed is that Hilary tends to have a large margin lead in the polls but as the days apporach for voting, Obama comes to town and miraculously makes the people change their minds which end up showing in the polls Obama growing in momentum and then winning the contest. I never would have thunk it but i am starting to think that Obama may in fact take TX...if this happens then Hilary is royally screwed....and this even includes if she happens to win but by a small margin...because small margins dont give enough delegates to shrink that large lead by Obama...

As it stands, there is a high probability that Obama is going to win this but there is a small window for Hilary to work in...she just has to know how to thread that needle and not rock the boat so many times, usually ending up with her getting wet (ie., this weeks antics).

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I'd say Obama has a 75% chance of winning this.

If Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, even by a small number, I'll drop Obama's odds down to about 60% and Clinton's up to 40%.

[Window]

12. Excellent analysis.

Peace:thumbsup:

[Johnny__Motown]

6. Clearly she won't drop out before TX&OH but you should also add what % have been voted on so far

If it was 53-46 with over half the delegates left I would agree. The fact is that the majority of delegates have been voted on already. She not only has to start winning but she needs to win with larger margins than Obama has had.

That isn't gonna happen.

Lets just hope she loses both Texas and Ohio and is so embarrassed that even she needs to come to grips with her loss.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. If my math is correct, 70% of the pledged delegates have already been allocated.

[Johnny__Motown]

9. See my point, with less than 1/3 of the delegates left to fight over she needs to overcome that gap

with the way delegates are split that 7% is insurmountable

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I think everyone in her camp has conceded this.

What she wants to do is close the gap to 50 or so pledged delegates and then use her influence and ties to win this through superdelegates. That's pretty much the only realistic way she can win this thing, but even that doesn't look likely.

Obama has a pledged delegate lead of 157 if you go by CBS' numbers.

Let's say the poll numbers are right and Clinton wins Ohio by 8 points and gets +5 delegates more than Obama. That still puts her 149 delegates behind Obama. Now let's say she only wins Texas by 1 or 2 points, there is a good chance she'd lose the pledged delegate count there. So we'll be conservative and give Obama +3 delegates in Texas. That moves the gap to 152 delegates. Then you have Rhode Island and Vermont. She's leading in Rhode Island, but by single digits. Let's say she wins Rhode Island by 5% and loses Vermont in a landslide. So she gets +3 out of Rhode Island and Obama nets +8 out of Vermont, that would put her 157 pledged delegates down. So then we move to Wyoming, which is a caucus. Obama should do well there, but it doesn't have many delegates. So Obama comes out of Wyoming +4, taking his total up to 161. A few days letter there is Mississippi, 33 pledged delegates. Obama will do extremely well there, so let's give him +8 (though it could be 10+) delegates out of there. So now he has a 169 delegate lead on Clinton. Far too big of a hole for her to climb out of, especially when PA is really the only state left where she could do well in.

The states left after Mississippi:

Pennsylvania
Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota

That doesn't include Guam and Puerto Rico. Obama will have the money, still the momentum, the delegate lead and states favoring him down the stretch.