Obama and Hillary Vs. McCain GE Maps.

[slick8790]

Based on all the state polls I can find, here are my predictions for 2008 GE with both candidates.

Obama


As you can see, I left several states up for grabs. Regardless, in this scenario, Obama wins with at least 270 electoral votes.

Clinton


There's the current projection for Sen. Clinton. As you can see, McCain takes a lot more swing states based on current polls. In this scenario, Clinton must win all tossup states to win.

Disclaimer: These are based on a combination of conventional wisdom (a dem IS gonna win CA, no matter who it is), current state matchups, and a little bit of my opinion here and there. I've tried to be as non-biased as possible. These are just a current snapshot of what the general election might look like if it happened to day, and I don't claim for them to be anything more than that.

That said, discuss.


*edit* Thank you for all the response. I'm considering doing this once a week or once every two weeks until the GE, as new polls come in and new trends emerge. Would anyone be interested in seeing that?

[lojasmo]

1. I'd be surprised if Clinton won minnesota. EOM

[slick8790]

2. Kerry won with 51% in 2004, along with

her purported strength among blue collar Dems, so I gave her the benefit of the doubt.

[lojasmo]

39. She would lose, but you're kind to do so. EOM

[fightthegoodfightnow]

3. A Little Too Close for Me

Hope you are right.

Add the three undecided and lose one smaller decided and Obama loses. We'll see.

[slick8790]

5. I hope I'm right too.

Then again, Obama or Clinton could come back and take Florida and blow my projection away.

[fightthegoodfightnow]

8. True

.......Count on her to go that route if she thinks she could change the outcome.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

[tritsofme]

4. GE polls this far out are meaningless

The campaign has not yet even begun.

[pbca]

6. In states that are close -

where Obama down by 5% I think he has a decent chance because of people who'd normally stay home coming out to vote and the possibility that at least some evangelicals (who hate McCain) will stay home.

[slick8790]

10. I gave Obama the benefit of the doubt in a lot of states.

There's also the outside chance he could swing WV, which went Dem pretty consistently until 2000.

[book_worm]

7. I think Obama can make it a race in Montana

[slick8790]

11. I don't know about that.

Kerry didn't even break 40% in 2004, and neither did Gore in 2000. Even Bill Clinton, one of our strongest candidates in years, lost by 3% in 1996.

He might make it slightly more competitive, and force the republicans to put a bit more resources towards it. and that's what we need to do.

[Johnny__Motown]

9. It still isn't fair, right now Obama is being attacked by both sides, his Numbers will go up later

[slick8790]

12. One could also argue that they'll go down.

As he gets pounded by the media, as our nominee inevitably will be.

We'll see, I suppose.

[skipos]

13. Interesting, thanks. Have you ever

looked at the partisan voting index for each state over the last few years? You might find the trends interesting and I could post the data it if you wanted. Based on the last few Pres. elections, PA is trending blue, MO is trending red, WI is a true swing state, and OH was a lean red for years, with 2004 the only lean blue election. Is it a trend, or the exception to the rule? Hmmm.

[slick8790]

14. No, I haven't seen that.

That'd be great if you could post it or link me. I was thinking the opposite for PA though. Clinton won by about 10% in 96, gore by about 4%, IIRC, and Kerry by 2.5%

[skipos]

23. The PVI

compares the individual state to the national average. That is the best way to see how red or blue a state is compared to the national average.

Here is the data for 88, 92, 96, 00 and 04. For example, look a few rows down to see that in 1988 Vermont voted 4% more for the Dem than the rest of the country. In 1992, they voted 10% more for the Dem. The data has been rounded, and I also mention if there was a homestate advantage. You will notice that Edwards did help in NC in 04. Let me know what you think.

STRONG DEM (183 electoral votes)
District of Columbia: 77d, 70d, 67d, 76d, 82d
Massachusetts: 16d (Dukakis P), 13d, 25d, 27d, 28d (Kerry P)
Rhode Island: 19d, 12d, 24d, 29d, 23d
Vermont: 4d, 10d, 14d, 9d, 23d
New York: 12d, 10d, 20d (Kemp VP), 24d, 21d
Maryland: 5d, 9d, 7d, 16d, 15d
Connecticut: 3d, 1d, 10d, 17d (Lieberman VP) 13d
Illinois: 6d, 9d, 9d, 12d, 13d
California: 4d, 8d, 4d, 11d, 12d
Maine: 4d, 3d, 12d, 5d, 11d
Hawaii: 17d, 6d, 17d, 18d, 11d
Delaware: 5r, 3d, 7d, 13d, 10d
Washington: 9d, 6d, 4d, 5d, 10d
New Jersey: 6r, 3r, 9d, 15d, 10d

LIKELY DEM (49 electoral votes)
Michigan: 1r, 2d, 5d, 5d, 6d
Pennsylvania: 5d, 4d, 1d, 4d, 5d
Oregon: 12d, 4d, 1r, 1r, 7d
Minnesota: 15d, 6d, 8d, 2d, 6d

WEAK DEM (14 electoral votes)
New Hampshire: 19r, 4r, 1r, 2r, 4d
Wisconsin: 11d, 1r, 2d, 1r, 3d

WEAK REP (12 electoral votes)
Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2d
New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2d

WEAK REP, TRENDING DEM (14 electoral votes)
Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r

LIKELY REP, TRENDING DEM (13 electoral votes)
Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r

LIKELY REP ( 74 electoral votes)
Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r

STRONG REP (167 electoral votes)
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r
Tennessee: 9r, 1r (Gore VP) 6r (Gore VP) 4r (Gore P) 12r
Louisiana: 2r, 1r, 4d, 8r, 12r
Georgia: 13r, 5r, 10r, 12r, 14r
South Carolina: 16r, 14r, 14r, 16r, 15r
Mississippi: 13r, 14r, 14r, 17r, 17r
Kentucky: 4r, 2r, 8r, 16r, 17r
Montana: 2d, 3r, 11r, 26r, 18r
Indiana: 12r (Quayle VP), 12r (Quayle VP), 14r, 16r, 18r
South Dakota: 1d,9r, 12r, 23r, 19r
Texas: 5r (HW Bush P vs. Bentsen VP) 10r (HW Bush P) 13r, 22r (Bush P), 20r (Bush P)
Kansas: 6r, 11r, 27r (Dole P) 21r 23r
Alaska: 16r, 15r, 26r, 31r, 23r
Alabama: 12r, 12r, 15r, 15r, 23r
North Dakota: 5r, 18r, 15r, 28r, 25r
Oklahoma: 9r, 14r, 16r, 22r, 29r
Nebraska: 13r, 23r, 27r, 30r, 30r
Idaho: 18r, 19r, 27r, 40r, 36r
Wyoming: 15r, 11r, 22r, 41r (Cheney VP), 37r (Cheney VP)
Utah: 26r, 24r, 30r, 41r, 43r

[slick8790]

24. This is great, thanks!

I'm a statistics nerd and this is just fascinating to me.

[JVS]

15. If Clinton lost WI and IA, I don't think MO would be in play.

[slick8790]

16. I left it blank because frankly, I don't know too much about it.

I haven't seen any polls on it or anything. WI and IA I have.

If you forced me to pick, I'd probably guess Obama has a better chance to win than Clinton, but they both could do it. Dem turnout in the MO primary was so much bigger than republican, it just might be enough to tip a swing state.

[deadmessengers]

17. What about the Deep South?

Look for Barack Obama to make the Deep South (the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana) a lot more competitive than in the past. In particular, MS, SC, and GA - all states with enormous African-American populations who WILL turn out in droves for him and make McKeatingFive spend money campaigning in states that Bush could take for granted. Obama could probably swing NC, as well.

[slick8790]

18. Ehhh, it's possible.

Those states haven't gone Dem in a while, even through Clinton years. I think he would definitely make it more competitive than Kerry's 60-40 average in those states. If we can bring them within 10 pts, then they're an effective resource drain on McCain. 50 state strategy at it's best. Thanks Gov. Dean! :patriot:

[deadmessengers]

20. Clinton took Georgia and Louisiana in 1992.

And Louisiana again in 96. Also took TN both times, as well.

[slick8790]

22. True.

But I was mainly referring to MS, AL, and the Carolinas. I think they're probably out of reach. GA and LA are possible, I guess, but we'll see. Clinton was a southern white male. I don't know whether TN and LA are really ready to go out on a limb and vote for either a black man or woman.

[deadmessengers]

36. Here's a wild card for you:

How about with a Southern white male as his running mate? VP John Edwards? VP Bob Graham? (oh how I would absolutely love this one) VP Tim Kaine? I really thing with a strong "good 'ol boy" on the ticket, he could flip at least one and maybe two Southern states. SC seems the most likely, but Georgia (my home state) doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.

On the other hand, I suppose it really is premature to even be having this discussion - he hasn't quite won the nomination yet.

[Carrieyazel]

31. That was then, though. And without Perot, Clinton would not have won Georgia.

All three are not going for either Hillary or Barack.

[deadmessengers]

38. I don't think he'll win all three, not by a long shot.

LA is probably out of reach - there's no longer a strong African-American bloc there, and that won't be enough to offset all the white voters who feel thoroughly fucked by the Bush response to Katrina. GA is a possibility - Atlanta (by far the largest population base in the state) is the mecca for the African American middle-class, and the Repugs would ignore that strength at their own peril. Also, I can tell you that a HELL of a lot of New Orleanians ended up here in Atlanta, and not a one of them would vote Repug. And TN - as we saw in the 2006 Senate election, an African-American Democrat *can* keep things close there, especially in a Democrat-leaning year.

I would call GA and TN tossups, and probably color LA red.

[FrenchieCat]

19. Would be interesting to have an analysis on congressional coattails

with both Obama and the Hillary at the top of the ticket scenario.

[slick8790]

21. That would be really interesting.

Although the sheer amount of information that would be involved scares me.

[FrenchieCat]

26. It would be a matter at looking what districts in the "red" & "Blue" states

who currently have Rep reprentatives and seeing how many Dems turned out in the primaries......

I'm certain that seats held by Dems will remain blue....so I'm just talking at looking at those seats currently held by Repugs mostly.

[Neshanic]

25. I think VA, NV, and CO would go republican either way. Indiana the toss up.

[slick8790]

27. I'm not so sure about VA NV and CO.

In the past 8 years, VA has elected 2 dem governors, one dem senator, taken Dem control of at least one house of the VA legislature, and are on track to elect another Dem senator by a larger margin this year. Our primary turnout was FAR greater than republican turnout. I think we have a real shot at taking it.

NV and CO are really tossups. Clinton managed to take both between 92 and 96, and even Kerry, a fairly weak candidate, came within 3-4% there. Plus, it's a democratic year, IMO. We could take em, and current state polls show Obama doing just that.

[Carrieyazel]

29. NV and CO are possible. But VERY tough for either Democrat.

They're two of the three toughest battlegrounds, (Ohio is the other one).

MO and VA however, are not possible. Although the margin of defeat for either Dem will be quite close.

Both of those could be possible in 2012 or beyond. Still not worth the trouble this year, though.

[Carrieyazel]

28. Obama, or any Dem, is not winning Virginia. Colorado is doubtful for both.

Missouri is not going Dem either in the general, no matter what. Missouri and Virginia should be red.

BATTLEGROUND STATES: Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado.

All in all though, very good and useful maps, much better and much more REALISTIC than other ones I've seen recently.

[slick8790]

34. Thank you.

But still, I think we have at least enough of a shot at VA to make it at minimum, a resource drain on McCain.

As I've posted elsewhere in this thread, In the past 8 years, VA has elected 2 dem governors, one dem senator, taken Dem control of at least one house of the VA legislature, and are on track to elect another Dem senator by a larger margin this year. Our primary turnout was FAR greater than republican turnout. I think we have a real shot at taking it.

[Barack_America]

30. PA: Obama will take it, Clinton will not

Simply because the only thing holding PA blue are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Philly, in particular, relies HEAVILY on African American and youth voters. I don't see those groups coming out in large enough numbers if Hillary is the nominee to offset that "Alabama in the middle" situation.

[slick8790]

32. "Alabama in the middle"? You mean Pensyltucky?

:evilgrin:

[Carrieyazel]

33. McCain as the nominee has complicated our efforts in the West.

He'll go hard as hell for Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. NV and NM are his neighbors and CO is not far away.

[deadmessengers]

37. I dunno about that one...

New Mexicans and Arizonans feel free to contradict me here, but if I remember correctly, there is a bit of a rivalry between those 2 states - kind of like GA/AL, NY/NJ, CT/RI, WI/IL, and NH/MA. I think Obama could win in NM. NV is growing so fast that previous demographic patterns can go right out the window there, as well - most of the people living in NV aren't "from there", and won't have any particular loyalty to McCain (who as a military brat, isn't really from Arizona, either, BTW - his family has roots in Mississippi)

[slick8790]

35. One last kick,

and now I'm out to go get prepared for the Oscars. Adios, people.

[UALRBSofL]

40. slick8790 that looks like a pretty good representation

but I wonder how much of a difference the cross-over votes that's been going for Obama from the republican party effect these numbers, because in many states the republican cross-over vote has been between 7%-9% where 70% going to Obama and 30% go to Clinton The other thing is how the running mates effect these votes. Do you have any statistics of how the running mates have effected the voters in the past?

[Strelnikov_]

41. Thanks for the reality check, in that McPain may well win

just as The Chimp did in 2000.

People seem to forget the electoral college advantage the Reich has.

I could see another 2000, with an even larger popular vote advantage for the Dem, yet 'losing' in the electoral college.

[robbedvoter]

42. I wonder what makes you think Hillary wouldn't win Florida? Or Tennessee?

I didn't check all states in your prediction, that alone was enough to convince me your predictions are just wishful thinking on your part.

[UALRBSofL]

44. robbedvoter neither Clinton or Obama is projected to win florida

But the numbers show Clinton has a better chance in florida then Obama. That said, McCain will win florida, I just know it. Don't ask me how, but, I just know, looking at all the evidence.

[slick8790]

45. McCain has led in polling in florida, on both candidates.

He's got the endorsement of a highly popular governor, and the electorate is favorable to him (read as: lots of senior citizens).

As such, I gave it to McCain. It's entirely possible that that could change in the next 8 months, and I hope it does. But I tried to make this map as a snapshot of now, which I think it's a decent one.

[Kitty Herder]

43. Thanks for putting that together and posting it. nt

[TacticalPeek]

46. Thanks. Any links?

For the states' projections?

[slick8790]

48. Most of the polls I used are Rassmussen, IIRC.

So they should be on their site somewhere.

For more recent state polls, I got them here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

47. Accurate Lotto numbers would be more appreciated.

PM me with them.

[slick8790]

49. Check your inbox. n/t

[democrattotheend]

50. Big favor to ask

Do you by any chance have a table of the data you used to put this together? You can save one of my coworkers a ton of time if you have the data. Thanks!

Awesome maps, btw.

[slick8790]

52. Thanks.

Since someone else asked me about this too, I'll get off my ass and put it all together sometime tonight, hopefully.

[Seabiscuit]

51. Oh boy! Colors! Get out the finger paint! Are we having fun yet?